Tagged: St. Louis Cardinals

Predictions Sure To Go Wrong 10.0 

The 2024 MLB season has begun. Little is certain in baseball, even a few weeks into the season. While we are super late getting our predictions posted this year, we nevertheless feel strongly that even with a small sample size we will continue our tradition of being terrible at predicting the future. Despite a decade of failure we continue on. Here are our predictions for the 2024 MLB season. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
Orioles Camden CrushersYankeesOriolesBmoreOrioles
Blue Jays (5)God’s Waiting Room (5)Orioles (5)Blue Jays (5)Yankees (4)Yankees (5)
RaysFree HealthcareJaysYankees (6)Tampa Bay (5)Blue Jays (6)
YankeesAaron’s BoondoggleRaysRaysTorontoRays
Red SoxWe all went Red SoxRedSuxRed SoxRed SuxRed Sox

It will be a dreadful season at Fenway. Meanwhile in Baltimore, the future is arriving. The young, and hyped, Orioles could make a deep run if their young stars live up to expectations. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays could have terrific or horrific seasons. Both are possible. The American League East is not the juggernaut it once was. 

Can the Orioles youth live you to the hype? (Mitch Stringer- USA TODAY Sports)

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
TwinsSouthsideTwinsTwinsClevelandTwins
TigersTwinkies (6)ChiSox (6)GuardiansTwinkiesGuardians
GuardiansBridge StatuesTigersTigersRoyalsWhite Sox
White SoxKate’s ReplacementsGuardiansRoyalsTigersTigers
RoyalsTony the TigersRoyalsWhite SoxWhite SuxRoyals

The American League Central remains the weakest division in baseball. Top to bottom there is not a single team capable of making a deep run in October. Minnesota should walk away with the division, but are they really a good team? The only surprise could be Detroit, where the improving Tigers could make a run at relevancy…maybe. 

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RangersWalker: TexasRangersAstrosRangersRangers
Astros (4)Trashtros (4)Astros (4)Rangers (4)Astros (6)Astros (4)
Mariners (6)Seamen of the PoopdeckMarinersMarinersMarinersMariners
AngelsRendon’s RascalsAngelsAthleticsAngelsAngels
ElephantsVegasPatheticsAngelsAthleticsAthletics

The Rangers and Astros will fight it out for the division and Wild Card. The Mariners need everything to go right to play meaningful baseball in September. The Angels should be thankful for the Athletics, otherwise they would finish last. The Oakland/Sacramento/Vegas A’s are a mess. 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
BravesBravosBraves BravesBravesBraves
Phillies (5)Phollies (4)Phillies (5)Phillies (5)Philly (5)Phillies (5)
MarlinsFish (6)MarlinsMetsFishMarlins
MetsAmazinsMetsMarlinsMetsMets
NationalsGnats (will face relegation)NationalsNationalsNatsNationals

The Phillies are a very good team, but the Braves are a great team. The division once again runs through Atlanta. Philadelphia will position itself for the Wild Card. The Marlins and Mets need to have a special season if they want their fans to watch beyond the All Star Break. This is the last year of the Nationals’ Cherry Blossom jerseys. 

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RedsSkylinePiratesBrewersCubsReds
Cardinals (6)Red BirdsReds (6)CubsReds (6)Cardinals (6)
CubsHot Dog RaceCardinalsRedsBrewersCubs
BrewersBuccosCubsCardinalsCardinalsBrewers
PiratesWrigleyvilleBrewersPiratesPiratesPirates

The Cardinals look to bounce back from one of the worst, and surprising, seasons in franchise history. The Reds have a great young line up, but do they have the pitching? We picked the Cubs to finish literally everywhere, so your guess is as good as ours. The Brewers are on the way down. Are the Pirates finally on the way up? 

The Reds have the bats to compete. (www.bleacherreport.com)

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
DodgersVince GullysDiamondbacksDodgersDodgersDodgers
Diamondbacks (4)Nope Ropes (5)Dodgers (4)Diamondbacks (4)Giants (4)Diamondbacks (4)
GiantsBig macsGiantsPadres (6)DBacksGiants
PadresAngre thePadresGiantsPadresPadres
RockiesCoorsRockiesRockiesRockiesRockies

The Dodgers should roll through the division, again. Arizona is hoping last season was not a fluke, but the start of sustained success. The Giants might hang around for a while before fading, but the real story is further south. Is this the year that San Diego finally plays up to their contracts or will this era of Padres baseball be loathed for their inability to compete? Just a friendly reminder, the Rockies are a Major League Baseball team. 

Postseason 

The Regular Season is chaotic, but the Postseason is unpredictable. The best team does not always win the World Series. Instead, teams look to get hot at the right moment. October is treacherous. The secret is simply, finding a way to win. The best players and teams do not always win, but will they in 2024? 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
TwinsSouthsideTwinsYankeesClevelandTwins
MarinersTwinkiesChiSoxTwinsAstrosYankees
Blue JaysTrashtrosAstrosBlue JaysYankeesAstros
AstrosGod’s Walking RoomOriolesRangersTampa BayWhite Sox

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RedsSkylinePiratesPadresCubsReds
CardinalsFishRedsBrewersRedsCubs
DiamondbacksPholliesPhilliesPhilliesGiantsPhillies
PhilliesNope RopesDodgersDiamondbacksPhilliesDiamondbacks

The Wild Card is a guessing game. The Astros could dominate the season and still be in the Wild Card. The Yankees, Phillies, and Diamondbacks might be a touch below the great teams, but that separation could force them to fight through the Wild Card. Unexpected teams can find themselves looking to continue their run through the Wild Card. This is what makes the Wild Card round the most chaotic and entertaining of the Postseason. 

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
AstrosSouthsideRangersRangersBmoreAstros
OriolesCamden CrushersAstrosOriolesAstrosOrioles
RangersTrashtrosYankeesYankeesRangersYankees
MarinersWalker: TexasTwinsAstrosYankeesRangers

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
DodgersVince GulleysBravesPhilliesDodgersDodgers
PhilliesNope RopesPhilliesDodgersGiantsPhillies
BravesBravosDiamondbacksPadresBravesBraves
RedsFishPiratesBravesRedsDiamondbacks

Is this the year the Astros begin to fade away or will their run of success continue? Texas attempts to win back to back World Series titles, but it is no easy task. The Orioles are on the rise, but can they play deep into October or will they have to wait until next year? The Dodgers and Braves are on a collision course yet again. 

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
OriolesSouthsideYankeesYankeesBmoreOrioles
RangersTrashtrosRangersOriolesYankeesRangers

Experience matters in big games. Keeping calm allows teams to play their best in high stress situations. The Rangers have been through the fight before. Veteran leadership and poise keeps the noise down. Baltimore is coming. The Orioles have a bright future ahead, but their youth can only take them so far this season. 

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
BravesBravosBravesBravesBravesBraves
DodgersNope RopesDiamondbacksDodgersDodgersDodgers

If ever there was a guarantee in baseball it is that the National League runs through the Braves and Dodgers. The other 13 teams must beat one or both of these talented and dominant teams if they want to win the National League pennant. The Diamondbacks played spoiler last season, can they do it again or will a new spoiler arise? 

The Braves look to win another World Series in 2024. (Rich Schultz/ Getty Images)

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RangersSouthsideYankeesOriolesBravesBraves
BravesBravosBravesDodgersYankeesRangers

The Braves and Rangers have the talent and experience to make it through the chaos of the Postseason. Both teams are filled with stars and role players that contribute to their team’s success. However, there can only be one World Series champion. 

Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves for winning their fifth World Series Championship. History says the Fall Classic will not follow our predictions, but time will tell. 

Happy Baseball.

DJ, JJ, JB, BL, and KB

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 9.0 

What a shock! Few foresaw the Rangers defeating the Diamondbacks in the 2023 World Series. We certainly did not. Despite trying to predict the outcome of the last nine MLB seasons, we continue to know nothing. We were incredibly bad in 2023. The season was filled with great stories and terrible collapses. The Mets were the Mets and baseball was its usual unpredictable self. We may have been terrible at predicting the season, but how bad was it? 

Really bad. Our scoring system is designed to clearly show who is the best at predicting the baseball season before the first pitch is thrown. Points are scored in the following ways: a correct prediction of a team’s final divisional standings in the Regular Season is one point, two points for predicting the Wild Card, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series and the Champion. A perfect score is 158 points. We were far from perfect. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue Jays (1)Steinbrenners (2)Yankees(2)Yankees (2)Maple leafs (2)Yankees (2)Yankees (2)Orioles
Yankees (5)Devil Rays (5)Blue JaysBlue Jays (4)Yankees (4)Blue Jays (4)Blue Jays (4)Rays
RaysCanadiansMontreal RaysOriolesDevil rays (6)OriolesRaysBlue Jays
OriolesBean EatersRed SuxRaysBmoreRaysOriolesYankees
Red SoxCamdenOriolesRed SoxRed SuxRed SoxRed SoxRed Sox

Our predictions got off to a rough start. Jesse was the only one to have multiple correct predictions with the Rays in second and Blue Jays in third. Derek, Bernie, Kevin, Jason, and The Winning Run all knew it would be a bad season in Boston. John missed completely. Not a great start, but hope springs eternal.

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Guardians (3)(Jeff) Bridges (3)GuardsWhite Sox (3)ChiSox (3)Cleveland (3)Guardians (3)Twins
White SoxTwinkies (4)TwinksTwinsFlaming RiversTwins (5)White Sox (5)Tigers
TwinsSouthsideChisoxGuardiansTwinsRoyalsTwins (6)Guardians
TigersKittehsRoyalsTigersRawrWhite SoxTigersWhite Sox
RoyalsMonarchsTigresRoyalsKCTigersRoyalsRoyals

Again we knew who would be bad. The Royals never inspired us. Jason knew the White Sox would be only slightly better than last place. Bernie found the Guardians finishing third. He was the only one to have more than a single correct pick. John was now 0 for 2 divisions. A second straight division of bad predictions did not inspire confidence in the rest of our picks. 

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Mariners (2)Trashtros (1)Cheaters (1)Astros (1)Trashtros (1)Astros (1)Astros (1)Astros
Astros(4)Halos (6)RangersAngels (5)Kraken (5)Mariners (6)MarinersRangers
Angels (6)SubmarinersOhtanisRangers (6)RangersRangersAngelsMariners
RangersBrett MarteeenMarinersMarinersHalosAngelsRangersAngels
AthleticsWhite ElephantsLas VegasAthleticsLas VegasOaklandAthleticsAthletics 

Finally we got on track. Derek for some reason decided the Astros were not going to win the division again. He was the only one. Everyone knew the poor A’s would be eliminated on Opening Day. Kevin and Jason had the end of the Ohtani era with the Angels again finishing fourth and out of October. Jesse had the Mariners falling back after a great 2022 season to third place. John had the Rangers finishing just behind the Astros. Everyone except Derek got back on track. How would we do in the National League? 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Braves (1)Braves (2)BravesPhillies (3)Braves (1)Braves (1)Braves (2)Braves
Mets (4)Amazins (4)MetsBraves (5)Phillies (5)Mets (5)Mets (6)Phillies
PhilliesFollies (6)PhilsMetsFishPhilliesPhilliesMarlins
MarlinsFishMarlinsNationalsAmazingsMarlinsMarlinsMets
NationalsGnatsNatsMarlinsNatsNationalsNationalsNationals 

Maybe it was our fandom, or just logic, but the Braves were the easy choice in the National League East. The Nationals were equally easy to finish in the basement. In between was more challenging. The Mets out Mets themselves to finish fourth. Kevin got the first perfect divisional prediction. Bernie whiffed because he had too much confidence in the Nationals. 

The Mets failed on so many levels in 2023 (John Bazemore/ Associated Press)

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Cardinals (3)Redbirds (3)CardinalsCardinals (2)Uncle Tickles (3)Cardinals (4)Cardinals (1)Brewers
Brewers (6)BrewcrewCubbiesBrewersCubbiesBrewers (6)Brewers (5)Cubs
CubsHarray CarraysBeersCubsDrunksCubs WINCubsReds
PiratesCin CityDredsRedsTeam of catchersRedsRedsPirates
RedsBuccosPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesCardinals

The National League Central was a mystery. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run all whiffed. Derek had the Pirates in fourth, while John and Kevin had the Cubs in second. We did not predict the disaster that was the Cardinals, as everyone had them winning the division. The Reds also surprised us with their third place finish. Brutal. 

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Dodgers (2)Dodger Dogs (1)PadresPadres (1)Dodgers (2)Padres (2)Dodgers (3)Dodgers
Padres (5)McD’s (5)DodgersDodgers (4)Friars (4)Dodgers (3)Padres (4)Diamondbacks
GiantsMcCovey’s CoveDbacksGiants (6)Dbacks (6)DiamondbacksGiantsPadres
DiamondbacksSnecksGiantsRockiesGiantsGiantsDiamondbacksGiants
RockiesCoorsRockiesDiamondbacksDecisional Front OfficeColoradoRockiesRockies

The Dodgers in first and Rockies last were easy. The Diamondbacks surprised everyone with their surge to the National League Pennant. The slide that cost Gabe Kapler his job was easy to see coming. The Padres tried and failed to contend. Kevin only mixed up the Padres and Diamondbacks. Bernie whiffed again, striking out on the entire National League. Making predictions is hard, as we proved yet again. 

Standings after the Regular Season

  1. Kevin- 13
  2. Jesse- 10
  3. Jason- 9
  4. Derek- 8
  5. John- 8
  6. The Winning Run- 8
  7. Bernie- 5

At the end of the Regular Season only Kevin was halfway decent. It had been a long miserable Summer for everyone else. Bernie missed the Senior Circuit, but he was only three points behind Derek, John, and The Winning Run. Could things turn around for the better in October or were we doomed by our bad predictions? 

Postseason 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Guardians(Jeff) BridgesGuardsWhite SoxChiSoxClevelandGuardiansTwins
AngelsHalosTwinksRangersDevil RaysMarinersTwinsBlue Jays
AstrosTwinkiesJaysBlue JaysYankeesBlue JaysBlue JaysRangers
YankeesDevil RaysRangersAngelsKrakenTwinsWhite SoxRays

John found his groove in the Wild Card. He had the Twins, Blue Jays, and Rangers. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run had two correct picks each in the Wild Card. Kevin’s good luck hit hard times, while Derek continued to show how little he knows about the future of baseball. This was a bad time to make bad predictions. 

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
CardinalsRedbirdsCardsPhilliesUncle TicklesCardinalsDodgersDiamondbacks
BrewersFolliesPhilsGiantsDbacksMetsMetsBrewers
MetsAmazinsDodgersDodgersFriarsDodgersPadresPhillies
PadresMcD’sMetsBravesPhilliesBrewersBrewersMarlins

Kevin reversed his fortunes with two correct picks. Everyone else had either the Phillies or Brewers. Bernie finally had a correct National League prediction. While it was good to have at least one correct prediction, it was not great that the majority of our picks were terrible. 

Standings after the Wild Card

  1. Kevin- 17
  2. Jesse- 16
  3. John- 16
  4. Jason- 15
  5. The Winning Run- 14
  6. Bernie- 11
  7. Derek- 10

The Wild Card round helped John and Bernie rebound from the Regular Season. Bernie was out of the basement. Derek was terrible as he took Bernie’s place. Kevin saw his lead shrink. The Wild Card created chaos, as predicted. 

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysTrashtrosCheatersAstrosTrashtrosAstrosAstrosAstros
AstrosTwinkiesGuardsAngelsKrakenBlue JaysBlue JaysTwins
MarinersSteinbrennersYankeesYankeesMaple leafsYankeesYankeesRangers
Angels(Jeff) BridgesJaysWhite SoxDevil RaysClevelandGuardiansOrioles

The Astros were the easy pick, even Derek had Houston playing in the Divisional Series. Jesse also had the Twins, giving him points over everyone else. Otherwise our predictions were living in a fantasy land. 

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
BravesDodger DogsPadresPadresBravesBravesCardinalsDiamondbacks
PadresAmazinsCardsGiantsFriarsMetsPadresDodgers
DodgersBravesBravesCardinalsDodgersPadresBravesPhillies
CardinalsFolliesDodgersBravesDbacksDodgersDodgersBraves

The Braves and Dodgers were easy picks. The National League ran through them. Only Bernie missed Los Angeles. Jesse with the Phillies and Kevin with the Diamondbacks had a third team in the Divisional Series. Jesse was making moves while the rest of us languished. 

Standings after the Divisional Series

  1. Jesse- 36
  2. Kevin- 33
  3. John- 28
  4. Jason- 27
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Jesse launched past Kevin. Derek and Bernie were duking it out for last place. None of us were doing well. Our predictions were trash. 

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysTrashtorsCheatersAngelsMaple LeafsAstrosYankeesRangers
Mariners(Jeff) BridgesYankeesYankeesKrakenYankeesAstrosAstros

The Astros kept marching towards the World Series. Jesse, John, Jason, and The Winning Run knew this. Derek, Bernie, and Kevin did not get the memo. Derek and Bernie continued fighting in the cellar. Kevin’s whiff hurt his title chances. Besides Houston, we had no clue on the American League. 

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
BravesAmazinsPadresPadresBravesBravesBravesDiamondbacks
DodgersBravesBravesBravesDodgersDodgersPadresPhillies

We were terrible at the American League. We were clueless about the Senior Circuit. The Mets and Padres Regular Season failures haunted us. Both the Braves and Dodgers failed to live up to October expectations. What were we thinking? 

Standings after the Championship Series

  1. Jesse- 44
  2. John- 36
  3. Jason- 35
  4. Kevin- 33
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Kevin plummeted down the rankings. Derek and Bernie readied for a futility throw down. Jesse’s lead looked hard to beat, but the Fall Classic awaited us. Kevin, Jason, and John were within striking distance if Jesse faltered. 

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Braves(Jeff) BridgesPadresYankeesKrakenAstrosBravesRangers
Blue JaysBravesCheatersPadresBravesBravesAstrosDiamondbacks

We suck. None of us predicted either World Series team. A big swing and miss. There would be no last second change in the standings. Try as we might, we know nothing about the future of baseball. 

Final Standings

  1. Jesse- 44
  2. John- 36
  3. Jason- 35
  4. Kevin- 33
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Congratulations Jesse, you are the best among us at predicting the 2023 MLB season. We were all terrible, but you were slightly less terrible. Maybe in 2024 we will be better…doubtful. 

DJ

Rookie of the Year

Teams are successful when they develop talent, not simply purchase free agents. The George Steinbrenner Yankees were often accused of buying championships, but they did develop talent. Success is turning draft picks and international signings into Major League players. The Rookie of the Year Award recognizes the best first year player in each league. Created in 1947, there was a single Award for the first two seasons, but since 1949 each league has a winner. While it is an individual award, the Rookie of the Year Award should also be viewed as an organizational award. If a franchise is consistently producing quality Major League caliber players they will eventually have one worthy of the award. The Diamondbacks are the last of the 30 Major League teams to have a Rookie of the Year. It took 25 years for Arizona to achieve. While it may have taken longer than expected for a player like Corbin Carroll to arrive, Arizona has finally completed the task. 

The inaugural Rookie of the Year Award was presented to Jackie Robinson after the most difficult rookie season in Major League history. Al Dark of the Boston Braves won in 1948. In 1949, Roy Sievers of the St. Louis Browns won the first American League Rookie of the Year Award. In more than 75 years since its creation, the Dodgers reigned supreme at producing elite rookies. The Dodgers have won a record 18 times, four in Brooklyn and 14 in Los Angeles. The Yankees are second with nine. 

The expectation was the Expansion teams would be among the last to have a Rookie of the Year. When expansion’s first wave came in 1961, only the Cubs and Pirates had yet to win the Rookie of the Year. However, the Cubs won their first Rookie of the Year in 1961 with the future Hall of Famer Billy Williams. This left Pittsburgh as the last non-expansion team without the award. Surely the Pirates could produce an elite rookie at some point. Instead, 12 of the 14 Expansion teams developed a Rookie of the Year before Pittsburgh. Finally, in 2004 Jason Bay put together a rookie campaign deemed worthy, giving the Pirates their first Rookie of the Year. Only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks had yet to win the award in 2004. Both franchises began play in 1998. The Pirates lack of success is just another disappointment in an ever growing list. 

Corbin Carroll is the Diamondbacks first Rookie of the Year. Arizona was the last remaining team without a Rookie of the Year winner. (Rob Leiter/ MLB Photos)

Simply winning the Rookie of the Year Award does not guarantee success beyond that first season in the Majors. Every player has the best season of their career, and for some it is that first season. There are others, who build upon their initial success. They finish their careers among the greatest ever. There are 19 players who won the Rookie of the Year Award and then had a Hall of Fame career

  1. Jackie Robinson- Brooklyn Dodgers, 1947
  2. Willie Mays- New York Giants, 1951
  3. Frank Robinson- Cincinnati Reds, 1956
  4. Luis Aparicio- Chicago White Sox, 1956
  5. Orlando Cepeda- San Francisco Giants, 1958
  6. Willie McCovey- San Francisco Giants, 1959
  7. Billy Williams- Chicago Cubs, 1961
  8. Tony Oliva- Minnesota Twins, 1964
  9. Tom Seaver- New York Mets, 1967
  10. Rod Carew- Minnesota Twins, 1967
  11. Johnny Bench- Cincinnati Reds, 1968
  12. Carlton Fisk- Boston Red Sox, 1972
  13. Andre Dawson- Montreal Expos, 1977
  14. Eddie Murray- Baltimore Orioles, 1977
  15. Cal Ripken Jr.- Baltimore Orioles, 1982
  16. Jeff Bagwell- Houston Astros, 1991
  17. Mike Piazza- Los Angeles Dodgers, 1993
  18. Derek Jeter- New York Yankees, 1996
  19. Scott Rolen- Philadelphia Phillies, 1997

In addition to these 19 Hall of Famers, there are five more players who will join them in Cooperstown when they are eligible. There will certainly be more, but these five are all but guaranteed to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  

  1. Albert Pujols- St. Louis Cardinals, 2001
  2. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners, 2001
  3. Justin Verlander- Detroit Tigers, 2006
  4. Bryce Harper- Washington Nationals, 2012
  5. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 2012

The Rookie of the Year Award celebrates the best new talent in the Majors each season. The players selected each season are not guaranteed a long and successful career, nor are they doomed to mediocrity. One great season does not define a player, but it can gain them recognition. Teams are tasked with developing the players and their success is reflected in winning the Rookie of the Year Award. It is nearly impossible to win multiple seasons in a row, but a team should consistently produce good, young players. Occasionally one should win the award. The Dodgers have figured out how to do just that, and the Pirates have not. All 30 MLB teams have now had a Rookie of the Year winner. Who adds to their list next season?  

DJ

Missing #3- Lou Criger

Sometimes life is not what you know, but who you know. This may explain Lou Criger’s name on the 1936 Hall of Fame ballot. His numbers did not justify his appearing before the voters for Cooperstown. The most likely reason he was on the ballot was his close relationship with Cy Young. Criger, like many players, did not play well enough to be considered for enshrinement, yet somehow he was on the 1936 ballot and received seven votes. 

Lou Criger played for 16 seasons with five teams: Cleveland Spiders (1896-1898), St. Louis Cardinals (1899-1900), Boston Americans/ Red Sox (1901-1908), St. Louis Browns (1909, 1912), and New York Highlanders (1910). He played in 1,012 career Games, scored 337 Runs, collected 709 Hits, including 86 Doubles, 50 Triples, 11 Home Runs, 342 RBI, 58 Stolen Bases, drew 309 Walks, 225 Strikeouts, with a .221 BA, .295 OBP, .290 SLG, .584 OPS, and 72 OPS+. Criger was all glove and no bat. He caught 984 Games, with 692 Starts, 625 Complete Games, 8,396 Innings, he had 5,866 Chances, made 4,354 Putouts, 1,342 Assists, committed 170 Errors, and turned 102 Double Plays. His career .971 FLD% was .008% higher than league average, his 6.11 RF/9 was 0.39 higher, his 5.79 RF/G was 0.13 higher, he allowed 120 Passed Balls, 934 Stolen Bases, with 937 Caught Stealing, a 50% CS% which was 6% higher than league average. Criger used his strong and accurate arm to dictate the running game of the opposing team like no other catcher in the early years of baseball. 

The tough, but slender Criger had his best season with the 1898 Cleveland Spiders. He played in  84 Games, scored 43 Runs, collected 80 Hits, including 13 Doubles, 4 Triples, 1 Home Run, 32 RBI, 2 Stolen Bases, drew 40 Walks, 22 Strikeouts, with a .279 BA, .377 OBP, .362 SLG, .739 OPS, and 115 OPS+. He set career bests in Runs, Hits, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. It was a banner year for an otherwise offensively inept player. 

Criger did not waste his one appearance in the World Series. Playing with the Boston Americans in the first World Series, he appeared in all 8 Games, scored 1 Run, collected 6 Hits, 4 RBI, drew 2 Walks, 3 Strikeouts, with a .231 BA, .286 OBP, .231 SLG, and .516 OPS. Criger and the Americans won the series five games to three. 

Lou Criger was a solid catcher, but not a Hall of Famer. (Chicago History Museum)

Criger was Cy Young’s preferred Catcher, and their relationship was fruitful. They played 12 seasons together from 1896 to 1908 with the Cleveland Spiders, St. Louis Cardinals, and Boston Americans/ Red Sox. In the 9 seasons after Criger became a full time Catcher, 1897 to 1908, Young posted a 229-131 record, with a 2.38 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, and 146 ERA+. Criger caught Young’s Perfect Game on May 5, 1904. However when Criger caught just two Games in 1906, Young posted a 13-21 record, 3.19 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, and 86 ERA+. It was the worst season of Young’s Hall of Fame career. He led the American League in Losses, did not throw a Shutout, and had his fewest Complete Games and Innings Pitched of any season when he made 20 Starts. A healthy Criger’s return for 1907 and 1908 led Young back to a 42-26 record, 1.65 ERA, 0.940 WHIP, and 152 ERA+. Criger also caught Young’s No Hitter on June 30, 1908. The comfort of a familiar catcher does a lot for a pitcher’s success. 

While Criger was critical to Young’s Hall of Fame career, it does not make him a Hall of Famer. Reaching Cooperstown places a player in elite company. There are only 19 Catchers in the Hall of Fame, and only three played during the Deadball era: Buck Ewing, Roger Bresnahan, and Ray Schalk. These three Hall of Famers averaged 18 seasons, 1,508 Games played, 797 Runs scored, 1,407 Hits, 222 Doubles, 99 Triples, 36 Home Runs, 669 RBI, 248 Stolen Bases, 581 Walks, 352 Strikeouts, .278 BA, .359 OBP, .383 SLG, .742 OPS, and 113 OPS+. The comparison between these legends and Criger is not realistic. Criger has 2.2 more dWAR and 127 fewer Strikeouts, everything else is not close. 

Lou Criger received the third highest vote total of any player not enshrined into the Hall of Fame from the 1936 Hall of Fame ballot. His seven votes, 3.1%, were the 29th highest of any candidate. Criger remained on the Hall of Fame ballot for four years, peaking with 8.0% in 1937. There is no amount of smoke and mirrors to justify his induction into Cooperstown. The real question is how did he get on the ballot to begin with? Was his inclusion due to his relationship with Cy Young or was it the work of the good ole boys club? Either way it is a travesty. 

DJ

End of the Road

The end of the Regular Season brings an end to the careers of players and coaches. Every season fans say goodbye. Maybe it is a player on your favorite team just hanging on the Major League roster. Maybe it is a superstar. Regardless, time is undefeated and after a life dedicated to the game, the end of the season brings finality to careers. 

Terry Francona is set to ride away on his scooter. He has the 13th most managerial wins all time. He broke the Curse of the Bambino as he guided the Red Sox to two World Series victories. He is forever a legend in Boston. He has the second most wins as the Red Sox manager and the most for the Indians/ Guardians. Terry Francona is a baseball lifer. If there was a place in the Hall of Fame for baseball lifers, which there should be, he would be heading to Cooperstown. 

Miguel Cabrera is one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time. This is not up for debate. In 21 seasons he has collected over 3,100 Hits, 600 Doubles, and 500 Home Runs. Cabrera is 17th in career Hits, 13th in Doubles and RBI, and 26th in Home Runs. The players above him are a who’s who of baseball history. Cabrera is Venezuela’s all time leader in Runs scored, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, RBI, and WAR. Simply, in five years Venezuela will have its second Hall of Famer. 

Miguel Cabrera ends his career as one of the greatest hitters of the modern era. (Getty Images)

Joey Votto is a legend in Cincinnati. The quirky First Baseman is beloved by Reds fans, even if his patience at the plate drove them crazy from time to time. He has spent his entire 17 season career with the Reds. His #19 will undoubtedly be retired. He has collected over 2,100 Hits, 450 Doubles, 350 Home Runs, and 1,100 RBI. He is an On-Base machine, leading the National League in Walks five times and OBP seven times. Votto has played the sixth most games in Reds history, he is fifth in Hits, fourth in Runs and WAR, third in RBI, second in Home Runs and Doubles, and first in Walks. Amongst his fellow Canadians, Votto is third in WAR, second in Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, RBI, and first in Walks and Games Played. Much like fellow Canadian Larry Walker, Votto will get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, but has he done enough to make it to Cooperstown? I hope so.

Judging pitchers has become more difficult as the expectations for Starting Pitchers continues to change. Complete Games are now a rarity and pitchers are not expected to “finish what they started”. Adam Wainwright made it. He reached 200 Wins in what was the final start of his career. 300 Wins are no longer the benchmark for the Hall of Fame. Wainwright led the National League in Wins twice in 2009 and 2013, and won 20 games in 2014. His work with Yadier Molina behind the plate kept the Cardinals near the top of the Senior Circuit for nearly two decades. Along with his 200 Wins, Wainwright has a 3.53 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 114 ERA+, in over 2,600 Innings Pitched, and 2,200 Strikeouts. He is third in Cardinal’s history in Wins and Innings Pitched and second in Starts and Strikeouts. Wainwright pitched himself into the Cardinals Hall of Fame, but his path to the Baseball Hall of Fame could be more difficult. Perhaps time and distance will improve its candidacy to voters. There is nothing wrong with induction into a team’s Hall of Fame. Cooperstown is not the end for every career. 

Zack Greinke has always lived to the beat of his own drum. He is a curious man, but one that knows how to pitch. Greinke has 224 Wins, with a 3.49 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, in 3,384.1 Innings Pitched, 2,977 Strikeouts, and a 121 ERA+. His numbers do not jump off the page, but there is a reason. Greinke pitched well at every stop. He was a machine for the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, and Angels. However, it is his time with the lowly Royals that he is best remembered. Greinke has pitched nine seasons for Kansas City, and with him the Royals have won 70 games once. They have lost 100 games four times. Greinke and the Royals have finished last in the American League Central seven times and fourth twice. This makes Greinke’s time with the Royals all the more impressive, as he is 12th in Wins for Kansas City, seventh in Innings Pitched, sixth in Starts, fifth in Losses, and fourth in Strikeouts. Greinke is 65-91 with the Royals. If Kansas City had threatened to finish .500 in four or five seasons he could have an extra 30 career victories, if not more. He won the American League Cy Young in 2009, when his 16 wins accounted for almost a quarter of the Royals victories. He just missed winning another in 2015 with the Dodgers. His brilliance has been lost on many bad Royals teams. If Greinke makes it to Cooperstown he will need the voters to look beyond wins and losses. Maybe they will. He could have a long and bumpy road to the Hall of Fame

Eventually everyone plays their last baseball game. Knowing when to walk away is hard. Leave too soon and the what ifs can haunt you. Stay too long and you become a shell of your former self. Regardless, this is the end of the road for many players. Some understand it is time to go and make their own decision to walk off the diamond one final time. Others will have the decision made for them. It is those who do not write their own ending that are the most painful. The end of the Regular Season is here. It has been a beautiful summer and life on the diamond, but for some this is the end of that journey. 

DJ

Sad Birds

Baseball is a cruel sport. Regardless how hard you try, there are times when everything goes wrong. Sometimes the stars align to create magic and sometimes they create disaster. It is the latter in St. Louis this season. The Mets and Padres with their gigantic payrolls have received most of the attention surrounding disappointing seasons, but the Cardinals are also in conversation. St. Louis did not spend $250 million like San Diego or $340 million like New York, but they did pay $153 million for a last place season. The team’s payroll has remained consistent over the last several seasons. They are not to be confused with the Oakland Athletics and their tight fisted owner who is trying to force a move. What all of these teams lack, which the Cardinals have, is a sustained history of success. The Cardinal Way. A winning culture is not an accident, but it is not happening this season. 

The Cardinal Way is doing everything the right way. The right way is subjective, as people get angry when things are not done their way, but success is hard to argue against. The Cardinal Way has kept St. Louis relevant for years despite not playing in a big market with a huge payroll. This year is the opposite of the Cardinal Way, losing and finishing last. 

How long has it been since the Cardinals were a last place team? This season will be the Cardinals’ first last place finish in the three division era. Their most recent last place finish was in 1990, when St. Louis finished 70-92 and 25 Games Behind the Pittsburgh Pirates for the National League East crown. It was a surprise in 1990 that St. Louis found themselves in the cellar, because the Cardinals previous last place finish was in 1918. When you talk about bad baseball in St. Louis it was always the Browns, not the Cardinals. 

It has been a rough season in St. Louis. (Joe Puetz- USA TODAY Sports)

How bad have the Cardinals been this season? On the mound, St. Louis pitchers have a 4.75 ERA, which is the 4th worst in the National League, and the second worst ERA+ at 90.. They have allowed the second most Hits, fourth most Runs, and fourth Worst WHIP at 1.462. Defensively, the Cardinals have been lackluster in nearly every position. They have the third worst defensive WAR (-5.7) in the National League. Only the Cardinals infield is above league average with the glove. The pitchers and outfield have combined for -5.9 WAR. It is hard to make up that much WAR when you are defensively deficient once the ball leaves the infield. Offensively, St. Louis has scored fewer runs than the league average per game. They have also produced fewer extra base hits than the National League average. They are Walking more than league average and Striking Out less, however they are hitting league average. The biggest indictment for the Cardinals is that they have left the most runners on base of any Major League team this season. It is hard to win when your offense cannot get runners home. By any measure it has been a rough season on the western bank of the Mississippi River. 

Before Spring Training began, everyone knew the Athletics and Royals would be bad. The expectations for the Cardinals were different. St. Louis traded for Paul Goldschmidt in December 2018, sending three players and a compensation pick to Arizona for the First Baseman. Arizona received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, and Andrew Young. None of the three remain with the Diamondbacks organization. The return did not replenish Arizona with talent, like many Diamondbacks fans hoped. The same can be said for the Nolan Arenado trade. The Cardinals got the best defensive Third Baseman in baseball and $50 million from the Rockies. St. Louis sent Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, and three Minor Leaguers to Colorado.  Gomber and Montero are fine players for the Rockies, but far from All Stars. Only one of the Minor Leaguers has risen above Double A. It was a Rocky Mountain salary dump. Goldschmidt and Arenado should anchor the next great Cardinals teams. Instead the team has faltered. The Farm System is no longer highly ranked. It has not steadily produced All Stars like in the past. 

The Cardinals normally compete for the National League Central crown. The other four teams take turns competing against St. Louis for supremacy. Their competition comes and goes. The stranglehold on the division is no longer in the shadow of the Gateway Arch. The National League Central is one of the weakest divisions in baseball, so it should not be difficult to play meaningful games in September. The expanded Postseason also lowers the bar for entry into October. The Cardinals and their fans view the Postseason as the minimal expectation for any season. The thought of finishing last is unimaginable. The 2023 Cardinals have been sad. Is this just a blip or the beginning of  change for the franchise?

DJ

United States of Baseball- South Dakota

South Dakota is more than just Mount Rushmore, even if the state’s nickname tries to persuade you otherwise. The Mount Rushmore State has sent 39 players to the Major Leagues. The greatest pitcher born in South Dakota is Jim Scott. His 27.70 career WAR is the 45th highest for a pitching state or territory leader. The greatest position player from the Mount Rushmore State is Mark Ellis. His 33.50 career WAR is the 44th highest among position player state or territory leaders. South Dakota has a combined 61.20 WAR, ranking the Mount Rushmore State 47th highest among all states and territories. 

During the early years of baseball, if a player did not live on the East Coast the chances of reaching the Major Leagues were low. Only great players emerged from west of the Mississippi River, as plenty of mediocre talent was available on the East Coast. Jim Scott was a great pitcher, but pitched for bad teams, constantly making him the hard luck loser. Death Valley Jim was born in Deadwood. The Right Hander worked his way up from local leagues to the Western Association, where the Chicago White Sox purchased him for $2,000. Scott pitched on the Southside for nine seasons, 1909 to 1917. He pitched in 317 career Games, made 226 Starts, with 63 Games Finished, threw 123 Complete Games, including 26 Shutouts, in 1,892 Innings Pitched, allowed 1,624 Hits, 686 Runs, 483 Earned Runs, 21 Home Runs, 609 Walks, 945 Strikeouts, posted a 107-114 record, with a 2.30 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, and 121 ERA+. Despite his skills on the mound, Scott posted just two winning seasons during his career. 

Jim Scott was a great pitcher on bad White Sox teams. (Chicago History Museum)

The best season of Scott’s career came in 1913. He pitched in 48 Games, made 38 Starts, 6 Games Finished, threw 25 Complete Games, including 4 Shutouts, 312.1 Innings Pitched, allowed 252 Hits, 96 Runs, 66 Earned Runs, 2 Home Runs, 86 Walks, 158 Strikeouts, posted a 20-21 record, with a 1.90 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, and 154 ERA+. He led the Junior Circuit in Starts and Losses. Despite a losing record it was a banner season for Scott who set career bests in Losses, Games, Starts, Complete Games, Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA+. His 1913 season remains the only season in MLB history where a pitcher lost 20 games with a sub 2.00 ERA. Scott’s efforts were recognized as he finished 14th in the MVP voting. 

Timing is everything in life. Scott helped the White Sox reach the 1917 World Series but wore a different uniform that October. Scott left the White Sox earlier in the summer, becoming one of the first players to enlist in the military during World War I. After the war, Scott returned to baseball playing for various minor league teams including the San Francisco Seals before retiring as a player. He stayed in baseball as an umpire for several seasons in the Southern League and the National League before retiring completely. 

There is no way to calculate the number of careers derailed by injuries. Unfortunately, Mark Ellis’ career was impacted by injuries. The Rapid City native played 12 seasons with four teams: Oakland Athletics (2002-2003, 2005-2011), Colorado Rockies (2011), Los Angeles Dodgers (2012-2013), and St. Louis Cardinals (2014). Ellis played college baseball for the University of Florida where he was named the MVP of the Gainesville Regional during the 1998 College World Series. He was drafted in the 9th round of the 1999 MLB Draft by the Kansas City Royals. Ellis played in 1,435 career Games, scored 690 Runs, collected 1,343 Hits, 257 Doubles, 25 Triples, 105 Home Runs, with 550 RBI, 82 Stolen Bases, drew 438 Walks, 801 Strikeouts, with a .262 BA, .327 OBP, .384 SLG, .711 OPS, and 92 OPS+. He finished eighth in the 2002 American League Rookie of the Year voting. Ellis ranked fifth all time with a .991 FLD% when he retired, playing primarily Second Base.

The best season of Ellis’ career came with the 2007 Oakland Athletics. He played in 150 Games, scored 84 Runs, collected 161 Hits, including 33 Doubles, 3 Triples, 19 Home Runs, 76 RBI, 9 Stolen Bases, with 44 Walks, 94 Strikeouts, with a .276 BA, .336 OBP, .441 SLG, .777 OPS, and 109 OPS+. He set career bests in Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, and RBI, while tying his career high in Strikeouts. On June 4, 2007, Ellis became the sixth Athletics’s player to hit for the cycle, doing so against the Boston Red Sox while batting in the eighth spot in the lineup. 

Mark Ellis’ defense was among the best ever. (Icon SMI)

Ellis played in the East Bay during the Athletic’s most recent run of success. He played in 22 Postseason Games, scored 8 Runs, collected 21 Hits, 5 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 Home Run, 5 RBI, 1 Stolen Base, 8 Walks, 20 Strikeouts, with a .253 BA, .326 OBP, .373 SLG, and .700 OPS across four series. While he never won a World Series, Ellis helped Oakland play successful October baseball. 

The Mount Rushmore State does not have a Major or Minor League team, but its baseball legacy is strong. South Dakota has produced one Hall of Famer. Sparky Anderson ranks among the greatest managers of all time, having led the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers to World Series championships. Will the Mount Rushmore State eventually send a player to Cooperstown? Time will tell. The United States of Baseball is heading south to the Volunteer State. Tennessee is next. 

DJ

Predictions Sure to Go Wrong 9.0

It is once again time for our feeble attempt at predicting the future. What will happen during the 2023 MLB season? No one knows for sure, but we offer our best guesses. If history is any guide our predictions will be horribly wrong. Wrong during the Regular Season and wrong during the Postseason. One thing we are certain of is our friend Jason is giving his predictions for the first time. Time will tell if he is any better at predicting the future than the rest of us. We like to think we have a basic understanding of baseball and the Major Leagues, but ultimately we are human and humans are biased thus we make mistakes. Our track record is poor, so trust our predictions at your own risk. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue Jays (1)Steinbrenners (2)Yankees(2)Yankees (2)Maple leafs (2)Yankees (2)Yankees (2)
Yankees (5)Devil Rays (5)Blue JaysBlue Jays (4)Yankees (4)Blue Jays (4)Blue Jays (4)
RaysCanadiansMontreal RaysOriolesDevil rays (6)OriolesRays
OriolesBean EatersRed SuxRaysBmoreRaysOrioles
Red SoxCamdenOriolesRed SoxRed SuxRed SoxRed Sox

The American League East could be a four team race. The Blue Jays and Yankees are the division favorites, but it is hard to sleep on the Rays. Tampa Bay always seems to be better than they appear. The Orioles have built a solid young team that is ready to compete with the rest of the division. Baltimore might need another year of seasoning before they threaten the Postseason, but they will begin seeing the results of their rebuild. The Red Sox will have a long Summer. Adding players like Justin Turner, do not win divisions. Boston may hang around for a while, but tickets should be cheap at Fenway by August. 

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Guardians (3)(Jeff) Bridges (3)GuardsWhite Sox (3)ChiSox (3)Cleveland (3)Guardians (3)
White SoxTwinkies (4)TwinksTwinsFlaming RiversTwins (5)White Sox (5)
TwinsSouthsideChisoxGuardiansTwinsRoyalsTwins (6)
TigersKittehsRoyalsTigersRawrWhite SoxTigers
RoyalsMonarchsTigresRoyalsKCTigersRoyals

Could the American League Central finally not be the worst division in baseball. None of the teams are in the World Series conversation, but several have real hopes for October. The White Sox improved by getting a new manager. Byron Buxton’s health is key in Minnesota after the Twins got Carlos Correa back after his well traveled off season. The Guardians have built a solid team around Jose Ramirez. The Tigers are trending in the right direction, but their season is focused on sending Miguel Cabrera into retirement. The Royals…well they get to play baseball too. 

Carlos Correa came back to Minnesota after an offseason of traveling the baseball world. (David Berding/ Getty Images)

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Mariners (2)Trashtros (1)Cheaters (1)Astros (1)Trashtros (1)Astros (1)Astros (1)
Astros(4)Halos (6)RangersAngels (5)Kraken (5)Mariners (6)Mariners
Angels (6)SubmarinersOhtanisRangers (6)RangersRangersAngels
RangersBrett MarteeenMarinersMarinersHalosAngelsRangers
AthleticsWhite ElephantsLas VegasAthleticsLas VegasOaklandAtheltics

Will the Astros finally stop winning? Doubtful. They lost Justin Verlander, but added Jose Abreu. The Mariners are back and still a great team, they should challenge Houston. Surely the Angels will put together a winning season that makes Shohei Ohtani pause before leaving in free agency. What a waste if the Angels are terrible again with Mike Trout and Ohtani healthy. The Rangers added Jacob deGrom. They have the big name pieces, now they just need to come together. What a sad way for the Athletics to spend their final season in Oakland. 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Braves (1)Braves (2)BravesPhillies (3)Braves (1)Braves (1)Braves (2)
Mets (4)Amazins (4)MetsBraves (5)Phillies (5)Mets (5)Mets (6)
PhilliesFollies (6)PhilsMetsFishPhilliesPhillies
MarlinsFishMarlinsNationalsAmazingsMarlinsMarlins
NationalsGnatsNatsMarlinsNatsNationalsNationals

The Braves have built another dynasty. The division is theirs for the taking despite the Mets spending more money on free agents than all the gold at Fort Knox. The Mets will be great, but will they be Amazin? The Phillies caught fire at the right time last season to make an unexpected run to the World Series, they are unlikely to catch lightning in a bottle twice. The Marlins are improving, but like their other good young cores, how long will these players stay in Miami? Marlins fans are waiting for the trades to begin. The Nationals fell hard after their World Series victory and have yet to show signs of life. Washington is in for a long rebuild. 

The New York Mets paid a king’s ransom in the hope of building a World Series winning team. (Jason Vinlove/ Getty Images)

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Cardinals (3)Redbirds (3)CardinalsCardinals (2)Uncle Tickles (3)Cardinals (4)Cardinals (1)
Brewers (6)BrewcrewCubbiesBrewersCubbiesBrewers (6)Brewers (5)
CubsHarray CarraysBeersCubsDrunksCubs WINCubs
PiratesCin CityDredsRedsTeam of catchersRedsReds
RedsBuccosPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesPirates

The Nationals League Central is a two team race. The Cardinals never slump and even with Yadier Molina retiring they got better. The Brewers continue to play some of the best baseball in the Majors, but can they overcome St. Louis and win the division? A lot has to go right for Milwaukee to avoid the Wild Card. The Cubs have a lot of good pieces, but they are not contenders. Maybe they play .500 baseball but they need more pieces before they dream of October again. The Reds and Pirates are rebuilding. They have a few young players already in the Majors and a ton of prospects in the Minors. The team that does the best job developing that talent will be the first to return to relevance.  

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Dodgers (2)Dodger Dogs (1)PadresPadres (1)Dodgers (2)Padres (2)Dodgers (3)
Padres (5)McD’s (5)DodgersDodgers (4)Friars (4)Dodgers (3)Padres (4)
GiantsMcCovey’s CoveDbacksGiants (6)Dbacks (6)DiamondbacksGiants
DiamondbacksSnecksGiantsRockiesGiantsGiantsDiamondbacks
RockiesCoorsRockiesDiamondbacksDecisional Front OfficeColoradoRockies

The Padres try and try, but they have been unable to knock off the Dodgers. This season is no different. The Padres will be very good, but the Dodgers will be great. The Giants are trying to contend again, but they missed in free agency and the mountain is just too high to climb. The Diamondbacks have a solid core around which they should become a contender in a few seasons. Arizona needs Corbin Carroll to play up to his contract. The Rockies are a mess. Technically they are rebuilding, but what have they done to get better?

Postseason

Just get into the Postseason. If you can make it to October anything can happen. The Phillies last season are a great example. They nearly turned a disastrous season into a championship winning one. The Postseason is even more unpredictable than the Regular Season. 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Guardians(Jeff) BridgesGuardsWhite SoxChiSoxClevelandGuardians
AngelsHalosTwinksRangersDevil RaysMarinersTwins
AstrosTwinkiesJaysBlue JaysYankeesBlue JaysBlue Jays
YankeesDevil RaysRangersAngelsKrakenTwinsWhite Sox

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
CardinalsRedbirdsCardsPhilliesUncle TicklesCardinalsDodgers
BrewersFolliesPhilsGiantsDbacksMetsMets
MetsAmazinsDodgersDodgersFriarsDodgersPadres
PadresMcD’sMetsBravesPhilliesBrewersBrewers

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue JaysTrashtrosCheatersAstrosTrashtrosAstrosAstros
AstrosTwinkiesGuardsAngelsKrakenBlue JaysBlue Jays
MarinersSteinbrennersYankeesYankeesMaple leafsYankeesYankees
Angels(Jeff) BridgesJaysWhite SoxDevil RaysClevelandGuardians

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
BravesDodger DogsPadresPadresBravesBravesCardinals
PadresAmazinsCardsGiantsFriarsMetsPadres
DodgersBravesBravesCardinalsDodgersPadresBraves
CardinalsFolliesDodgersBravesDbacksDodgersDodgers

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue JaysTrashtorsCheatersAngelsMaple LeafsAstrosYankees
Mariners(Jeff) BridgesYankeesYankeesKrakenYankeesAstros

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
BravesAmazinsPadresPadresBravesBravesBraves
DodgersBravesBravesBravesDodgersDodgersPadres

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Braves(Jeff) BridgesPadresYankeesKrakenAstrosBraves
Blue JaysBravesCheatersPadresBravesBravesAstros
Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves are on a path to the World Series. (Michael Reaves/ Getty Images)

Congratulations to the World Series Champion Atlanta Braves!

Time will tell if we are correct. There is plenty that can go right and wrong for a team between now and October. No matter what happens, baseball fans are in for another great season. Happy Baseball!

DJ, JJ, JB, BL, KB, & JL

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 8.0

Surprising no one, we were wrong. We were wrong last year and the year before that and the year before that. It is almost certain we will be wrong this year and next year. Trying to be positive, we are consistent. The 2022 season was unpredictable, as we will demonstrate below. 

Looking back at our predictions before the 2022 season, if you made it to the Postseason, you had a chance. You can run up the score in October. The Regular Season is one point for a correct prediction of each team’s final divisional standing. The scoring system changes in the Postseason: two points for predicting the Wild Card, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series and the Champion. A perfect score is 158 points. 

A scoring system is necessary to determine who made the best predictions. No one was close to perfection, we were the opposite of perfect. So let’s look back at what did not happen in the 2022 season.  

American League East

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysPoutine Commandos *YankeesJaysRaysBlue JaysYankees
RaysSteve Irwin Hates This TeamJaysRaysYankeesRaysBlue Jays
YankeesEvil EmpireSoxYankeesRed SoxYankeesRays
Red SoxThe Team With the Truest FansRaysRed SuxBlue JaysRed SoxOrioles
OriolesBean Town BrosOriolesOriolesOriolesOriolesRed Sox

Derek, Kevin, Bernie, and the Winning Run all swung and missed on the American League East. Not a great start. No one guessed the Rays would finish in the middle of the pack. The most competitive division in baseball was unpredictable. 

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
White SoxDaniel TigersSoxWhite SoxWhite SoxWhite SoxGuardians
TigersSpidersTwinsTigersTigersTigersWhite Sox
TwinsSouth SideTigersTwinsTwinsTwinsTwins
RoyalsMonarchsOf The GalaxyGuardiansGuardiansGuardiansTigers
GuardiansTwinkiesRoyalsRoyalsRoyalsRoyalsRoyals

Jesse whiffed on the American League Central. The Twins and the Royals were easy choices for the rest of us. We thought the White Sox would roll and the Guardians would flounder. Wrong. 

American League West

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
MarinersTrouts *AstrosAstrosAngelsAstrosAstros
AstrosTrashtrosHalosAngelsMarinersAngelsMariners
AngelsElephantsRangersMarinesAstrosMarinersAngels
RangersCaptain AhabsKrakenRangersRangersRangersRangers
AthleticsDangersLas VegasAthleticsAthleticsA’sAthletics

Jesse missed on back to back divisions. Derek knew what the bottom of the American League West would look like. Houston and Oakland were easy picks. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani deserve better. 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
BravesBravos *ReigningPhilliesBravesBravesBraves
PhilliesAmazinsPhilliesBravesMetsPhilliesMets
MetsFishMetsMarlinsPhilliesMetsPhillies
MarlinsPholliesMarlinsMetsMarlinsMarlinsMarlins
NationalsGnatsNationalsNationalsNationalsNationalsNationals

Bernie had the first perfect division. Everyone but Kevin was on their game for the National League East. The Nationals had a clean sweep for the basement and we knew the Mets were never destined for first place.

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
BrewersLittle Red MachineMillerBrewersCardinalsBrewersCardinals
CardinalsEt Tu Brew Crew?CardsCardinalsBrewersCardinalsBrewers
RedsBuccosReds?RedsCubsRedsCubs
CubsHarry Caray’sCubsCubsRedsCubsReds
PiratesThe only one I know is VottoRoster spotPiratesPiratesPiratesPirates

Is there a sadder division in baseball than the National League Central. Three teams are actively rebuilding. It was a two team race from Opening Day. Despite the lack of quality baseball Bernie had another perfect prediction. Derek, John, Kevin, and The Winning Run only predicted last place. 

National League West

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
DodgersMcDoubles *DodgersDodgersDodgersDodgersDodgers
GiantsBiggunsPadresGiantsPadresPadresPadres
PadresL7 WeeniesGiantsPadresGiantsGiantsGiants
RockiesJohn DenversDiamondsRockiesRockiesRockiesDiamondbacks
DiamondbacksWhy bother showing upSadnessDiamondbacksDiamondbacksDiamondbacksRockies

Bernie mixed up the Rockies and the Diamondbacks, otherwise he would have had a perfect National League. John rebounded for his own perfect division. Jesse hit nothing but air. The Dodgers were the easy top pick, then it was a lot of disappointment. 

Standings after the Regular Season

  1. Bernie- 18
  2. John- 14
  3. The Winning Run- 12
  4. Derek- 9
  5. Kevin- 8
  6. Jesse- 7

After the Regular Season, Bernie held a solid four point lead over John. Jesse prayed to Saint Ruth for October to be kinder to him than the Regular Season. It was still anybody’s race.

The Phillies came out of nowhere to reach October. (Tim Nwachukwu/ Getty Images)

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
AL Wild Card 1YankeesDaniel TigersChisoxWhite SoxWhite SoxRaysMariners
Blue JaysTrashtrosBoSoxTigersTigersAngelsBlue Jays
AL Wild Card 2RaysSteve Irwin Hates This TeamJaysRaysYankeesTigersGuardians
AstrosEvil EmpireTwinsYankeesMarinersAstrosRays

Only Derek foresaw the American League Wild Card with the Rays and Blue Jays. However, everyone got points to begin the Postseason. The Yankees were high on our predictions and they were a disappointment. 

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
NL Wild Card 1BravesLittle Red MachineCardsBrewersCardinalsBravesPhillies
CardinalsEt Tu Brew CrewPadresPadresGiantsPadresCardinals
NL Wild Card 2PhilliesBiggunsBrewersGiantsMetsCardinalsPadres
GiantsL7 WeeniesPhilliesBravesPadresPhilliesMets

John, Bernie, and the Winning Run were nearly perfect in the National League Wild Card. The Padres and Giants were quite popular, but with very different outcomes. 

Standing after the Wild Card

  1. Bernie- 26
  2. John- 22
  3. The Winning Run- 20
  4. Derek- 17
  5. Kevin- 12
  6. Jesse- 11

Bernie maintained his four point lead over John. Derek crept closer to The Winning Run. Jesse and Kevin were off to a slow start. 

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
ALDS 1Blue JaysPoutine CommandosYankeesJaysRaysBlue JaysYankees
MarinersTrashtrosJaysRaysTigersRaysGuardians
ALDS 2RaysTroutsAstrosWhite SoxAngelsWhite SoxAstros
White SoxSteve Irwin Hates This TeamChisoxAstrosYankeesAstrosMariners

Only John predicted more than one team correctly in the American League Divisional Series. The Yankees and Astros were popular, although New York did better than our predictions by not using the Wild Card to reach the ALDS. The White Sox disappointing season was on display in our predictions. 

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
NLDS 1BrewersBravosDodgersDodgersDodgersDodgersPhillies
BravesBiggunsBrewersGiantsPadresCardinalsBraves
NLDS 2DodgersMcDoublesBravesPhilliesBravesBrewersPadres
GiantsEt Tu Brew CrewCardsBrewersCardinalsBravesDodgers

Everyone had at least two correct predictions, as Bernie’s tear through the National League continued with three correct predictions. The Braves and Dodgers did not disappoint in the National League Divisional Series. 

Standings after the Divisional Series

  1. Bernie- 42
  2. John- 38
  3. The Winning Run- 32
  4. Derek- 29
  5. Kevin- 24
  6. Jesse- 23

Bernie’s four point lead continued to hold. Derek and The Winning Run were fighting for third place. Meanwhile Jesse and Kevin were battling for last place. Two rounds left, but plenty of points were still available. 

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
ALCSBlue JaysPoutine CommandosYankeesRaysRaysWhite SoxAstros
White SoxSteve Irwin Hates This TeamAstrosWhite SoxAngelsRaysYankees

John was perfect in the American League Championship Series with the Yankees and Astros. Everyone else completely missed. Bernie kissed his four point lead goodbye. 

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
NLCSBrewersBravosBravesDodgersDodgersDodgersPhillies
GiantsMcDoublesDodgersPhilliesCardinalsBravesPadres

Jesse and Kevin came to life with one correct prediction in the National League Championship Series. John could not repeat his magic. Derek, Bernie, and The Winning Run struck out.

Standings after the Championship Series

  1. John- 54
  2. Bernie- 42
  3. Kevin- 32
  4. The Winning Run- 32
  5. Jesse- 31
  6. Derek- 29

Bernie’s four point lead was now a 12 point deficit. Kevin and The Winning Run were tied for third with Jesse just one point behind. Derek, Bernie, and The Winning Run were all done after missing on both Championship Series. It was not good for these three. 

We did not think the Astros would make the World Series, much less win it. (Jerome Miron- USA TODAY Sports)

World Series

World SeriesDerekJesseJohnKevinBernieThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysBravosYankeesDodgersDodgersWhite SoxAstros
BrewersSteve Irwin Hates This TeamBravesRaysAngelsDodgersPhillies
Blue JaysBravosYankees in 7Dodgers in 6AngelsWhite SoxAstros

None of us saw the Astros or Phillies in the World Series coming. We had 12 chances to get one team right and whiffed all 12 times. At least the majority of our World Series teams made the Postseason. We are bad at predicting baseball, but 2022 was especially horrific. 

Standings after the World Series

  1. John- 54
  2. Bernie- 42
  3. Kevin- 32
  4. The Winning Run- 32
  5. Jesse- 31
  6. Derek- 29

Congratulations John. You were the best predictor of us all, at least for the 2022 season. 

The man at the top our of predictions this year loves his Yankees even in the Texas heat. (The Winning Run/DJ)

DJ, JJ, JB, BL, and KB

2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot is filled with talented players who spent at least a decade playing on a Major League diamond. The election results will be announced tomorrow, January 24th. As is tradition, The Winning Run has filled out its own officially unofficial ballot. We have been writing about baseball for more than a decade, but we lack the credentials to be full voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). No matter, we humbly submit our ballot anyway.

There are 28 candidates on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. Each hopes to join Fred McGriff, who was elected in December through the Contemporary Era Committee, in Cooperstown. There are 14 returning candidates and 14 first year candidates on the ballot. The 2023 ballot is also the final year of eligibility for Jeff Kent. If he is not elected this year, his path into the Hall of Fame will be through the committees. 

The BBWAA is the sole voting body for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. As such, only members of the BBWAA who meet the following eligibility requirements can vote.

Voter Eligibility 

  1. Any member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) who has been an active member for ten years.
  2. The BBWAA is limited to writers for newspapers only, including some internet newspapers. 

The BBWAA sets the rules for how eligible voters can vote.

Voting Rules

  1. Vote for no more than 10 players.
  2. A player is eligible for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame if they meet the following criteria:
    1. They competed in ten seasons. A single game counts as a season played.
    2. The player has been retired for at least five seasons. The clock restarts if the player returns and plays in the Major Leagues.
    3. The player is not on the ineligible list; banned from baseball. 
  3. The player must receive 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot.
  4. The player is elected if they receive at least 75% of all ballots cast. 

In addition to the official voting rules for the Baseball Hall of Fame set forth by the BBWAA, The Winning Run has its own rule for its ballot. 

The Winning Run Rules

  1. Known PED users are ineligible.

Every player dreams of reaching the Major Leagues and playing at such a level that their ultimate destination is Cooperstown. However, this dream is a reality for only 1% of those who reach the Major Leagues. Thousands of players begin their careers dreaming of the Hall of Fame and never spend a single day on a Major League roster. The difficulty of reaching the Major Leagues makes simply appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot, even for a single year, an accomplishment reserved for baseball’s elites. Making the ballot is an honor, even if the candidate does not receive a single vote.

The honor of appearing on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot belongs to these 28 candidates, their year of eligibility, and percentage of the Hall of Fame vote received in 2022. 

  1. Scott Rolen- 6th (63.2%)
  2. Todd Helton- 5th (52.0%)
  3. Billy Wagner- 8th (51.0%)
  4. Andruw Jones- 6th (41.4%)
  5. Gary Sheffield- 9th (40.6%)
  6. Alex Rodriguez- 2nd (34.3%)
  7. Jeff Kent- 10th (32.7%)
  8. Manny Ramirez- 7th (28.9%)
  9. Omar Vizquel- 6th (23.9%)
  10. Andy Pettitte- 5th (10.7%)
  11. Jimmy Rollins- 2nd (9.4%)
  12. Bobby Abreu- 4th (8.6%)
  13. Mark Buehrle- 3rd (5.8%)
  14. Torii Hunter- 3rd (5.3%)
  15. Carlos Beltran- 1st
  16. John Lackey- 1st
  17. Jered Weaver- 1st
  18. Jacoby Ellsbury- 1st
  19. Matt Cain- 1st
  20. Jhonny Peralta- 1st
  21. Jayson Werth- 1st
  22. J.J. Hardy- 1st
  23. Mike Napoli- 1st
  24. Bronson Arroyo- 1st
  25. R.A. Dickey- 1st
  26. Francisco Rodriguez- 1st
  27. Andre Ethier- 1st
  28. Huston Street- 1st

Following our own rule, 5 of the 28 candidates were removed from consideration due to their connections with PEDs. 

  1. Gary Sheffield
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. Manny Ramirez
  4. Andy Pettitte
  5. Jhonny Peralta

This left 23 candidates on our ballot, from which we could vote for a maximum of 10. The choices are never easy. Previous ballots we have unofficially voted on have contained more than 10 Hall of Fame caliber candidates. Reviewing our ballot from 2022 helped in beginning the voting process. Were the 10 players we voted for last year still the best choices? The Winning Run’s ballot last year listed these 10 candidates: 

  1. Bobby Abreu (8.6%)
  2. Mark Buehrle (5.8%)
  3. Todd Helton (52.0%)
  4. Tim Hudson (3.0%)
  5. Torii Hunter (5.3%)
  6. Andruw Jones (41.4%)
  7. Jeff Kent (32.7%)
  8. Tim Lincecum (2.3%)
  9. Scott Rolen (63.2%)
  10. Billy Wagner (51.0%)

Based upon the voting, none of our candidates were elected to Cooperstown. Two of our votes are open again as Tim Hudson and Tim Lincecum failed to receive the minimum 5% of votes. This left us with eight returning candidates on this year’s ballot. This is our unofficially official 2023 ballot.  

We removed Torii Hunter from our ballot and replaced him with Jimmy Rollins. Hunter was our final choice on last year’s ballot. Rollins was on the ballot in 2022, but after reexamining every candidate, we concluded that Rollins was the more deserving candidate. Hall of Fame voting is not a perfect process, which we have previously examined. The process too is foiled because the voters themselves are imperfect. Reaching rational decisions is not easy when more than 300 voters must agree for a candidate to reach Cooperstown. Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran took our two open votes. Both are deserving first year candidates. Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel were the top candidates not receiving our vote. None of these men are flawless, but their off the field actions have no impact on our voting. Yes the character clause exists, but they who are without fault shall cast the first stone. The Winning Run used all 10 of our votes, but we wanted 12.

Who will join Fred McGriff in Cooperstown this summer? (Stephen Dunn/ Getty Images)

Francisco Rodriguez pitched for five teams during his 16 season career: Anaheim/ Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels (2002-2008), New York Mets (2009-2011), Milwaukee Brewers (2011-2013, 2014-2015), Baltimore Orioles (2013), and Detroit Tigers (2016-2017). Rodriguez pitched in 948 Games, Finished 677 Games, converted 437 Saves, Pitcher 976 Innings, posted a 52-53 record, 1,142 Strikeouts, 389 Walks, with a 2.86 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, and 148 ERA+. He won the 2002 World Series with the Angels. He was a six time All Star and twice the American League Rolaids Relief Award winner. Rodriguez finished in the top four of Cy Young Award voting three times. He led baseball in Saves three times and Saved 40 Games six times. Rodriguez’s 437 career Saves are the fourth most all time, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith

Jimmy Rollins helped to set the standard for modern Shortstops. He played for three teams during his 17 season career: Philadelphia Phillies (2000-2014), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015), and Chicago White Sox (2016). Rollins played in 2,275 Games, collected 2,455 Hits, 511 Doubles, 115 Triples, 231 Home Runs, 936 RBI, 1,421 Runs scored, 470 Stolen Bases, 813 Walks, 1,264 Strikeouts, posted a .264 BA, .324 OBP, .418 SLG, .743 OPS, and 95 OPS+. Rollins led the National League in Triples four times. He stole 30 Bases ten times. Rollins was a three time All Star, won four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and the 2007 National League MVP. Defensively, Rollins played 2,227 Games at Shortstop, totally 19,513.2 Innings, had 9,275 Chances, made 2,982 Putouts, 6,139 Assists, committed 154 Errors, turned 1,249 Double Plays, and posted a .983 Fielding %. Rollins played the sixth most Games at Shortstop, the most not in the Hall of Fame. He is 20th in Assists and 12th in Double Plays. He was one of the leaders for the Phillies in their 2008 World Series victory. 

Carlos Beltran went from young phenom to wise veteran. He played for seven teams during his 20 season career: Kansas City Royals (1998-2004), Houston Astros (2004, 2017), New York Mets (2005-2011), San Francisco Giants (2011), St. Louis Cardinals (2012-2013), New York Yankees (2014-2016), and Texas Rangers (2016). Primarily patrolling Centerfield, Beltran played in 2,586 Games, collected 2,725 Hits, 565 Doubles, 78 Triples, 435 Home Runs, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 Runs scored, 312 Stolen Bases, 1,084 Walks, 1,795 Strikeouts, posted a .279 BA, .350 OBP, .486 SLG, .837 OPS, 119 OPS+. Defensively, he had above average Range for two decades. He won the 1999 American League Rookie of the Year. Beltran was a nine time All Star, won three Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers. He helped five different teams reach the Postseason and provided the veteran leadership, not always within the rules, the Astros needed to win the 2017 World Series. 

Removing Torii Hunter from our ballot was not fun. He was our final selection last year, but his career still deserves recognition. Additionally, Omar Vizquel once again comes up short because of his lack of offense. 

We will find out tomorrow if anyone will join Fred McGriff in Cooperstown. There are many deserving candidates, but we must wait to see if 75% of the writers can agree. 

DJ