The Covid-19 Pandemic has slowed the world down and given people time they would otherwise spend working to do other productive things. Sir Isaac Newton invented Calculus during the Great Plague of London. We have not been that productive, mainly we just miss baseball. Anything to return to normal, even for a few hours, is a welcomed distraction.
Derek was perusing Twitter when he came upon @DanClarkSports.
The 9/9/9 Challenge (Twitter/@DanClarkSports)
The Winning Run decided to partake in the 9/9/9 Challenge. The Challenge is eating 9 hot dogs, drinking 9 beers, in 9 innings. The average game during the 2019 season took 3:05. 185 minutes to eat 9 hot dogs and drink 9 beers. Baseball+Hot Dogs+Beer= a great socially distant Saturday night. Much like our annual season predictions, we predicted how we would fare before beginning the challenge.
Derek- 8 hot dogs and 7 beers
Jesse- 8 hot dogs and 8 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Bernie- 7 hot dogs and 7 beers
Kevin- 5 hot dogs and 8 beers
Derek- 7 hot dogs and 9 beers
Jesse- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Bernie- 8 hot dogs and 8 beers
Kevin- 5 hot dogs and 5 beers
Derek- 9 hot dogs and 7 beers
Jesse- 9 hot dogs and 8 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Bernie- 8 hot dogs and 7 beers
Kevin- 6 hot dogs and 8 beers
Bernie- 9 hot dogs and 7 beers
Derek- 9 hot dogs and 8 beers
Jesse- 8 hot dogs and 9 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Kevin- 5 hot dogs and 6 beers
Derek- 8 hot dogs and 5 beers
Jesse- 6 hot dogs and 8 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Bernie- 6 hot dogs and 5 beers
Kevin- 4 hot dogs and 6 beers
Derek- 8.6 hot dogs and 6.8 beers
Jesse- 8 hot dogs and 8.4 beers
John- 8.6 hot dogs and 9 beers
Bernie- 7.6 hot dogs and 6.8 beers
Kevin- 5 hot dogs and 6.6 beers
John was the clear favorite to finish the 9/9/9 Challenge. Kevin on the other hand was not looking great, having gone a year without eating pork or beef makes eating 9 hot dogs difficult. He refused to eat non-meat hot dogs. Derek, Jesse, and Bernie had a chance to complete the Challenge but it would take dedication.
Our rules for the 9/9/9 Challenge:
- 8 of 9 hot dogs must have at least one condiment.
- No sleeping.
- Entire beer/ hot dog must be consumed before it counts, no half credit.
- Challenge ends when the final out is made.
- You puke, you are disqualified.
We have plenty of games to choose from, but we decided to stick with the evening’s theme. We watched the May 1, 2019 game with the Colorado Rockies visiting the Milwaukee Brewers, Coors Field against Miller Park. Sadly there are no ballparks with a hot dog corporate sponsor. Brewers Starting Pitcher Chase Anderson suffered a finger laceration warming up, forcing Jacob Barnes to make his first, and so far only, career start.
The Rockies did not care that Barnes was making his first career start. Charlie Blackmon led off with a Walk, Trevor Story did the same. 12 pitches in, Colorado had runners on First and Second, 0 outs, with Daniel Murphy at the plate. Murphy struck out swinging, but Barnes threw a Wild Pitch, allowing Blackmon and Story to advance. Second and Third, 1 out, Nolan Arenado up. First pitch was a ball. Next pitch, a rocket to deep Left-Center for a 3 Run Home Run. 3-0 Rockies. Ryan McMahon reached on an infield Single. Ian Desmond Walked. Thankfully for Barnes, Raimel Tapia and Drew Butera both went down swinging to end the inning and his day. Barnes went 1 Inning, allowed 2 Hits, 3 Earned Runs, 3 Walks, 3 Strikeouts, and threw 38 pitches. Not the ideal first career start.
Milwaukee’s bats tried to exact a bit of revenge against Antonio Senzatela as he took the mound for Colorado. Lorenzo Cain led off by lining out. Eric Thames Singled. Mike Moustakas took the first pitch he saw and deposited it beyond the Leftfield fence. 3-2 Colorado. The score stayed 3-2 until the 5th Inning. We watched at the game, none of us were especially glued to the action. The Brewers and Rockies are not our favorite teams, plus it had been a while since we hung out. The social aspect of baseball, and the Challenge, took over. The joy of eating hot dogs, drinking beer, and watching baseball brought a sense of normalcy that has been lacking recently.
Nolan Arenado hit bombs during the 9/9/9 Challenge. (Benny Sieu- USA TODAY Sports)
John announces in the 5th Inning that he was done. 9 hot dogs, 9 beers, 5 Innings. All hail the victor. The long 1st Inning allowed John to down 5 hot dogs and 5 beers. Bernie too had sprinted out of the box, demolishing 8 hot dogs. Kevin and Jesse also polished off 5 hot dogs in the 1st Inning. Meanwhile, Derek was cruising along with just 3 hot dogs gone.
Kevin overtook Jesse in the 7th Inning. He took advantage of Jesse talking to close the gap, finishing his final beer and hot dog before the 7th Inning Stretch. Jesse quickly finished his final hot dog, ensuring his place on the medal stand. He started celebrating too early and Kevin passed him just before the finish line. Bernie had gone out hard on the hot dogs and was paying the lethargic price. Meanwhile Derek was the tortoise of the race, slow and steady.
In the Bottom of the 5th, Ben Gamel Singled, scoring Eric Thames and Yasmani Grandal. 4-3 Brewers. The Rockies retook the lead in the Top of the 6th. Ryan McMahon scored on a Wild Pitch. Tony Wolters Singled home Ian Desmond. Raimel Tapia scored on a Charlie Blackmon Double to make it 6-4 Colorado. The score remained 6-4 until the 8th Inning as the Challenge for some became keeping down the hot dogs.
Colorado added to their lead in the 8th. Tapia Doubled to Right, followed by a Mark Reynolds Walk. Tony Wolters hit a Sacrifice Fly, scoring Tapia. Blackmon was Hit By the next Pitch, forcing Reynolds to Second. Story followed with a 3 Run Home Run, scoring Reynolds and Blackmon. The Rockies scored 4 in the 8th pushing their lead to 10-4.
Jesus Aguilar Walked and Gamel Singled to give Milwaukee a bit of hope to start the home half of the 8th. However, those hopes were quickly dashed when Scott Oberg induced an Orlando Arcia 6-4-3 Double Play. Derek was finishing his last beer and hot dog as Nolan Arenado launched a 3-2 pitch from Jeremy Jeffress beyond the Left-Centerfield wall. 11-4 Colorado. Derek’s slow and steady pace meant he missed the podium, but still conquered the 9/9/9 Challenge. Only Bernie was left. After the Arenado dinger the Rockies went down in order. The Brewers put the first two on, a Lorenzo Cain Single and Eric Thames Walk, but down by 7 there was little hope for a comeback. Mike Moustakas Lined Out, then Yasmani Grandal Struckout. As Travis Shaw stepped to the plate, Bernie made his mad dash for home. He finished his final beer just moments before Shaw popped out to end the game and the Challenge. The Rockies won 11-4.
Derek- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Jesse- 10 hot dogs and 9 beers
John- 9 hot dogs and 10 beers
Bernie- 9 hot dogs and 9 beers
Kevin- 9 hot dogs and 10 beers
The average MLB game in 2019 took 3:05. This May 1st battle between beer sponsored ballparks took 3:44. The long 1st Inning plus several half innings with multiple runs scored gave us extra time to complete the 9/9/9 Challenge. It was not the most exciting game to watch. However, it was a great reason to get together with friends, via the internet, watch baseball, and forget the chaos of the real world for a few hours. We could have spent our time doing something far more productive, but what could be a better waste of time than baseball and friends. Challenge completed.
Walking off the mound CC Sabathia knew he was finished. He had announced his retirement, but now the left arm that took him to the top of the baseball world could take no more. Sabathia had nothing left in his dislocated shoulder. This was the end.
CC Sabathia’s Major League career began on April 8, 2001 in Cleveland against the Orioles. He pitched 5 ⅔ innings of 3 run baseball for a no decision in a 4-3 Cleveland victory. Sabathia made 559 more Regular Season starts across 19 seasons. He compiled a 251-161 record, with a 3.74 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 38 Complete Games, and 12 Shutouts. He played in six All Star games, won the 2007 American League Cy Young Award, and won the 2009 World Series with the Yankees. Along the way he battled addiction, fighting it when it meant stepping away from baseball in the 2015 Postseason.
Perhaps the greatest pitching run in recent baseball history belongs to CC Sabathia. In July 2008, less than a year after winning the Cy Young, Cleveland traded Sabathia to Milwaukee. The Brewers were chasing the Wild Card. After pitching six innings in his first start, Sabathia threw three consecutive Complete Games. The Brewers won his first four starts, and 12 of his first 13. In 17 starts for the Brewers, Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.003 WHIP. He threw 130 ⅔ innings, including seven Complete Games and three Shutouts. He was masterful on the mound, posting a 255 ERA+ with Milwaukee.
CC Sabathia was unstoppable in a Brewers uniform. The greatest pitching run in modern baseball history. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Despite his incredible pitching, the Brewers needed more to reach October. Between September 20th and 28th Sabathia started three games on three days rest. He delivered, pitching 21 ⅔ innings, winning twice, including a Game 162 Complete Game allowing the Brewers to squeak into the Postseason. Milwaukee would lose to the eventual World Series Champion Phillies in the Divisional Series. Sabathia put his team above himself, he could have refused to pitch at such an insane pace, by modern standards, as he headed into free agency. Sabathia’s selflessness and brilliance was rewarded by the Yankees with $161 million over seven years.
Sabathia received the financial rewards from his incredible abilities on the mound. He earned the respect of Yankee fans, which was obvious by the ovation the Bronx faithful gave Sabathia after dislocating his shoulder. Despite his success in pinstripes, Sabathia’s incredible run in Milwaukee will remain the defining moment of his career. While Madison Bumgarner would not allow the Giants to lose the 2014 World Series, Sabathia’s run in Milwaukee was a three month grind we are unlikely to see again.
The beauty of baseball is its unpredictability. Any player in any game can achieve the impossible. Teams can also surprise. Regardless how knowledgeable you are about the game, even experts are not always able to predict baseball.
Ozzie Smith was never a power hitter, he hit 28 home runs in 19 seasons. No one predicted Smith would hit the game winning home run in Game 5 of the 1985 National League Championship series. Jack Buck’s memorable call of “Go Crazy Folks” sealed the home run in baseball history. Smith did not hit another home run until May 31, 1988. Unpredictable.
Phillip Humber’s 16-23 record and 5.31 ERA are unremarkable, yet on April 21, 2012 he was perfect. Perfect Games are unpredictable, but Humber’s was almost impossible. Ineffectiveness after perfection forced Humber out of the Majors in 2013.
Prior to each season experts, and The Winning Run, predict which teams will make the Postseason and win the World Series. This season 18 of MLB Radio’s experts made predictions. As expected some were right and some wildly wrong. However, their mixed prediction results have a glaring hole in one particular Division.
Some predictions are easy, some are not. (MLB Radio)
The experts loved the Yankees, good call, and the Red Sox, not so much, in the American League East. New York has won the Division, but once again Tampa and their 92 wins got no love. Tampa’s low budget machine produced another winning teams while Fenway’s big budget will sit at home in October. The American League Central was predictably a two team race between Cleveland and Minnesota. The rest of the Central will finish at least 25 games back, the experts picked the wrong team as the Twins lead the Indians by four games. They knew the contenders, but picked them in the wrong order. The American League West was easy, 18 of 18 picked the Astros. Good Call.
The National League Central was a toss up between the Brewers, 2 of 18 experts, Cardinals, 5 of 18, and Cubs, 11 of 18. These teams have battled all season with the Cardinals taking control as Milwaukee continues fights on without Christian Yelich and the Cubs fade away. 10 of 18 picked the Dodgers in the National League West. Oddly the other eight picked the Rockies, who are heading for a last place finish. Ouch.
The shocking ineptitude of the experts is the National League East. All 18 experts whiffed on the Division, as none predicted the reigning Division champion Braves would repeat. The Marlins predictably struggled, leaving just four teams. The favorite in the East was the Nationals. A rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin should deliver a Division title. The Phillies added Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. This firepower in the Philadelphia lineup should have made them at least competitive. The rebuilding Mets got one vote from Rob Bender. No love for Atlanta.
Ronald Acuña has emerged as a potential superstar in Atlanta. (FOX Sports Florida)
The Braves did not lose or add a superstar, they tinkered. Atlanta’s biggest move was signing Josh Donaldson for one year. A full season from Ronald Acuña also helped. Predicting baseball is hard, but one would think at least one expert would believe in the defending Division champions. The team steadily improved before winning the East by 8 games over Washington. The Nationals can win 90 games and look poised to return to October as a Wild Card.
Ultimately teams simply want to make the Postseason. Every team has a chance to reign supreme in October baseball. Winning the Division as easily as Atlanta has in 2019 should give experts pause about their predictions in the future. Teams can have surprisingly good seasons, but Atlanta simply improved on their 2018 season. Baseball is unpredictable, but give credit where credit is due. The experts did not believe the Braves were real in 2018 and predicted their demise in 2019. Experts may understand the game better than most, but baseball always follows its own unpredictable path. This is what makes it the greatest game.
Rap is not the usual music genre for baseball songs. Teams may create a music video for the upcoming season, postseason, or a particular player. College teams are known to lip sync from time to time, looking at you 2012 Harvard baseball team. However, it is rarely a rap song. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis changed this with My Oh My. The song was written in response to longtime Seattle Mariners radio broadcaster Dave Niehaus’ sudden death in November 2010. It is the best baseball song of the last decade.
My Oh My is not reserved just for Mariner fans, however to fully appreciate the song you must understand what Dave Niehaus meant to the Pacific Northwest. He was the Mariners broadcaster since their inception in 1971. He broadcast more than 5,000 games, missing roughly 100 games in 40 years. Niehaus was the voice of baseball for Mariners fans.
Baseball had a tough beginning in Seattle. The Pilots lasted only one losing season, 1969, before moving to Milwaukee. The Mariners, and their fans, suffered through 14 consecutive losing seasons. They did not make the postseason until the fabled 1995 season, their 19th. There was little excitement on the diamond, yet the fans tuned in their radios to listen to Dave Niehaus.
Dave Niehaus was the voice of baseball in the Pacific Northwest. My Oh My was a loss.(John Lok/ The Seattle Times)
Mariners fans were rewarded by listening to Niehaus call the golden age of Mariners baseball. From 1995 through 2001, the Mariners made the postseason four times, reaching the American League Championship Series three times. The excitement inside the Kingdome moved to Safeco Field, now T-Mobile Park, on July 15, 1999 with Dave Niehaus throwing out the first pitch. The following summer, Niehaus became the second member of the Mariners Hall of Fame, after former first baseman Alvin Davis. In 2008, Niehaus received the highest award in baseball broadcasting, the Ford C. Frick Award, and was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Niehaus was more than a broadcaster. The 2011 season was the teams first without him in the booth. The team honored Niehaus with a performance of My Oh My on Opening Day.
My Oh My was released six weeks after Dave Niehaus’ death as a bonus track on Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ album The Heist. Macklemore begins by recounting the winning run of the 1995 American League Divisional Series against the Yankees. The voice of God on the radio calling the game as Edgar Martinez drives in Joey Cora tying the game and Ken Griffey Jr. is waved home to win the game. The pace of the song quickens along with your pulse for the play at the plate.
Wisely, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis step back while Dave Niehaus makes the call during an interlude. Artists recognize the talents of other great artists. Niehaus paints the picture of the play at the plate and how it felt inside the Kingdome and across the Pacific Northwest.
The second verse zooms out to examine baseball memories from childhood. Macklemore discusses learning to play baseball, spitting sunflower seeds, playing under the sun, and his Dad teaching him the beauty of the game. He layers in childhood favorites of Big League Chew, recreating The Sandlot, and begging his Mom for one more inning before bed. Recalling childhood memories quicken the pace of the song, like an excited child talking faster and faster.
Macklemore rounds out My Oh My with a final verse connecting baseball and real life. The third verse begins at a frantic pace. The same feeling Mariner fans had as Griffey rounded third. Life feels as though it’s moving faster than we can grasp it. There is a touch of anger underpinning the understanding that life will give you bad hops and you must be ready for them. The lessons of baseball stay with you as an adult. Life is a trip around the bases, success comes by putting your head down and running as hard as you can. The verse slows as it approaches the end and finishes with a trombone playing a mournful farewell…almost a baseball version of Taps.
Macklemore’s description of Dave Niehaus’ call and how baseball makes him feel could be anyone, not just a kid from Seattle. Every baseball fan knows the thrill of following the winning run racing home. My Oh My takes baseball fans back to their childhoods and the joys of baseball and the lessons it teaches.
The song is also a reflection of becoming an adult and losing your childhood heroes. Baseball is a child’s game played by adults, yet those adults are not invincible. Every kid eventually deals with the loss of a hero. Despite never meeting the person, it has a profound impact on their life. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are spot on with My Oh My and the music video. The video is simple, just baseball pictures, equipment, jerseys, old stadiums, and replays of past moments. No wonder people in Seattle had to pull over to collect themselves when they heard My Oh My for the first time.
Last year we ranked the best pitcher bat flips of recent memory using our proprietary Joey Bats Scale. So what did our promotion of the this glorious celebration of triumph get us in the 2018 season? Nothing. We saw one aggressive bat drop from Clayton Richard and an off-camera BP bat flip from Chris Sale. Shohei Ohtani doesn’t flip bats and none of the other 17 pitchers to hit a dinger in 2018 blessed us with an addition to the Joey Bats Scale.
While there were no bat flips, I did watch every dinger hit by a pitcher in 2018, so in a completely arbitrary order, here are some of my favorites.
Steven Matz Homer With No Witnesses
I’m convinced the few people in the crowd got lost in Willets Point and wandered into Citi Field to ask for directions to Flushing Meadows Park. There is no conceivable reason anyone would subject themselves to a Mets-Marlins game in September 2018. But props to Steven Matz and the Mets for fully enjoying the moment.
Reds’ Pitchers Hitting Grand Slams
Not one but two Reds’ pitchers hit grand slams in 2018, Michael Lorenzen and Anthony DeSclafani. More impressively, Lorenzen’s grand slam came on a pinch-hit and was his 3rd (and final) dinger of the season.
A.J. Cole Does His Best Big Sexy Impression
A.J. Cole hit his first career home run last season, but that’s not what’s impressive. What matters here is that he took 30 seconds to round the bases, turning in the longest home run trot by a pitcher since Big Sexy in 2016.
German Marquez Hits a Dinger Off a Second Baseman
I am all for the recent trend of position players pitching more often in blow out games if it leads to more moments like this.
Let’s hope the DH never comes to the NL. Pitcher homers are fun, bat flips are better, and it is great to see pitchers celebrate these rare moments. Let’s hope the 2019 season brings us more pitcher home runs and more bat flips.
Here we go into a new season where anything can happen. We had a lackluster off-season with a sputtering hot stove that saw some record-breaking contracts but weeks of “Will he or won’t he” that belongs on the Lifetime Channel rather than the MLB news wire. Teams seem willing to bet big on prospects but undervalue proven commodities. This is the same spirit we’re taking when we peer into our cracked crystal ball to make predictions about the 2019 season. We’re going to switch things up starting with the American League and Bernie is going to report on why they will or won’t do what we think they’ll do.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|AL East||Yankees||Rojo Sox (yeah I said it)||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees|
|Red Sox*||Bandwagoners*||Red Sux*||Red Sox*||Tea Partiers*||Red Sox|
|Blue Jays||Devil Rays||Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Pajaritos||Blue Jays|
|Orioles||Cal Ripkens||hOribles||Crush Davis Express||Blue Jays||Orioles|
New York Yankees
One hundred wins last season and they end up a Wild Card. They blasted more home runs in a season than any team before. The rotation didn’t quite hold up and the bats went a bit cold in the Postseason. They shored up their pitching rotation in the off-season by trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. Masahiro Tanaka may have developed a pitch that could keep him from getting blown up every five games. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar had a season in the Bronx to settle in and help recreate a new Murderers’ Row.
Giancarlo Stanton will be flipping his bat and trotting around the bases plenty in 2019. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Boston Red Sox
They’re the reigning champs and they did it with a collective play that didn’t focus on one player’s excellence. Mookie Betts may be the most athletically gifted player in the Majors and Chris Sale wouldn’t surprise anyone if he makes another case to win the Cy Young. Craig Kimbrel hanging out in free agency does not help shorten games. We have to give the defending champs their due but they also didn’t do much in the off-season. Resting on your laurels while everyone else is re-configuring to beat the champs may not be the most sound strategy.
Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell threw the kind of fire that could have started the California wildfires last year. The Rays got him to bite on a 5 year, $50 million contract with a $3 million signing bonus. While it’s a big jump for him, it’s not elite ace money. The Rays are trying to win on a budget but that only works when you’ve got an analytical or strategic edge over your competition. You can’t Moneyball when everyone else is reading the statistics the same way. Then again, they probably would run away with the AL Central…
Toronto Blue Jays
There have been a lot of near misses with the Blue Jays’ recent signings. Randal Grichuk, Ken Giles, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz…these are all (or were) solid role players to support a more elite group of players. *cough*Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*cough*
Mark Trumbo’s knee is looking better. Crush Davis is still their best option a first base? No left-handed pitching? Is Trey Mancini the only glimmer of hope on this roster? What happens is Jonathan Villar stays healthy and hits?
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|White Sox||Tigers||Sox||ChiSox||White Sox||White Sox|
The firing of Paul Molitor shows the Twins front office is getting impatient for wins. Rocco Baldelli coached the Rays for a few seasons so he knows how to work with a budget and talent, however Molitor was really the best sort of balance between analytics and gut feeling for the game. Derek and I saw Miguel Sano hit a laser in Detroit during BP that rocked the brick wall beyond the centerfield fence. We agree it would have carried over 500 ft. Perhaps Nelson Cruz can help guide Sano towards his All Star potential. Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop, and Ronald Torreyes are solid pick ups to shore up the infield that’s covered by a great outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario. They’ve got the talent to compete but only in their division.
Will Miguel Sano become the star Minnesota is hoping for? (Bruce Kluckhohn-Associated Press)
Cleveland’s lineup is looking a bit battered but they truly do their damage through hustle and pitching. Well, the hustle seems to be worn out. What’s worse is the arms seem to have cooled. A few years ago facing Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Trevor Bauer would have seemed like swinging at ghosts. Now it seems that the only trouble with the rotation is staying alert enough to make contact. There’s still a deep well of talent here, it’s just worn down and needs a refresh.
Chicago White Sox
Eloy Jimenez is not the second coming but that’s because the White Sox’ front office had thought that about Yoan Moncada. Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, and Ivan Nova make up a serviceable rotation but let’s be honest, the ChiSox are only getting third because of their divisional competition.
The Tigers are pretty much the White Sox without the prospects.
Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy has a shoulder impingement in his throwing shoulder. Salvador Perez is out, getting Tommy John surgery…as a catcher. I have more faith in Bartolo Colon being able to pitch through 9 innings than this team to win more than 50 games.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|AL West||Astros||Colt .45’s||Stros||Astros||Athletics||Astros|
|Mariners||Walker Texas Rangers||Mariners||Seattle||Mariners||Mariners|
These guys are a team of superstars that play like a team. Justin Verlander, George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman deliver on such a regular basis that support from guys like Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick coming into a hot streak is just overwhelming for most teams. There’s a certain level of excellence that you have to bring to beat these guys. Few teams have it and fewer can do it as consistently.
This is a team that makes you go “Who is that?” and they consistently outperform the expectations of the “experts”. Just bear in mind that the A’s outperformed Houston in OPS, BA, and HRs last season. Sean Manaea threw a no-no last season and he’s leading a rotation that doesn’t have the same regression potential that Houston has.
Los Angeles Angels
Shohei Ohtani isn’t throwing this season. Mike Trout signed a landmark contract that’s prompting players to question the utility of free agency (but really, without Bryce Harper and Manny Machado doing what they did, Trout wouldn’t have gotten his deal). This is team that’s signaling that they want to win but really not showing people that they know how to win. They may end up like the Yankees of the early 2000’s with enormous salaries, big names, cracked lumber…but no hardware to show for it.
Mike Trout got paid, but can the Angels ever put together a winning team? (FTW-USA TODAY Sports)
The Mariners are a lot like a superb AAA with some hot prospects just waiting for a call up. It’s not a rotation but a one-two punch in Marco Gonzalez and Yusei Kikuchi and I wouldn’t want to go into a boxing match with that combo. King Felix might have a few good games in him this season but that’s not a lot to float by on. The high point of their season is already over, Ichiro played in Japan and then retired.
This is a team full of redemption stories in the making. I’m not holding my breath. New stadium for 2020 might be the most exciting off-season move.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|Phillies*||Bravos*||Harpers*||Marlins* (yeah Jeets!)||Braves*||Braves|
|Marlins||Fish||Minor Lg Team||Mets||Marlins||Marlins|
The Phillies picked up some good talent in Andrew McCutchen who had a bit of a refresh by the Bay and in the Bronx, Jean Segura who’s production and defense are constantly overlooked, and J.T. Realmuto, who’s on-base and slugging continue tracking better every year in the majors. We also saw Aaron Nola turn the corner and take over the mound like an elite ace. Jake Arrieta may not find the stride he had in Chicago but an improved lineup may make his job easier and bolster his confidence to hold things down. Let’s not forget that they also picked up a certain free agent that could amplify all of those previous moves by a huge leap – Bryce Harper.
Bryce Harper moved to Philadelphia, can he win in October? (Drew Hallowell/ Getty Images)
The Braves sort of caught lightning in a bottle with the emergence of young prospects in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. The signing of Josh Donaldson blocks Johan Camargo from the everyday lineup and puts him into a super utility role. When a young star like Freddie Freeman is one of your elder statesmen and you win the division, there’s a lot to like about this team. But the Braves probably had the largest range of predictions among The Winning Run’s team with first and fourth place finishes.
There’s a lot of killer talent on this team. They might actually be better without Bryce Harper in their outfield. But just like the city they play for, there are a lot of management and clubhouse synergy issues to overcome.
New York Mets
Speaking of management issues…there is still an enviable amount of pitching talent in Queens. The Mets need to stop trying to be the Yankees and embrace the chaos and circus of the New York sports media. Less bro, more fun would go a long way into turning this team into winners. Oh and either fire the entire medical staff or protect their positions and salaries from the front office. Either way, there are too many injuries for this to be anything but incompetence or interference, neither is good.
The Marlins will not do what the Phillies did last year. Kevin’s just doubling down because when it doesn’t work out, he can brush it off as a joke. Derek Jeter may be on track to becoming to baseball ownership/front office management what Michael Jordan has been to basketball.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|NL Central||Cardinals||Cards||Brewers||Brew Crew||Cardinals||Cardinals|
|Reds||Better Dead than Red||Cubs||Cubbies||Cubs||Reds|
St. Louis Cardinals
I feel like a broken record. This team just reloads. Unlike last year, I think they won the off-season by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. They have great players in the rest of their positions or a deep bench to platoon. Yadier Molina is a cyborg because getting into that crouch in your late 30’s is just crazy, or I’m just jealous. Hopefully Molina is wearing a bulletproof cup this year. Regardless, the Cardinals seem to have a range and depth that provides them an edge over the regressing Cubs and volatile Brewers teams.
There’s a lot of hitting potential on this team and they will probably be in the top 5 for HRs by the end of the season. The Brewers outperformed expectations on pitching last year but I think it can be done again. Corey Knebel being hurt is manageable since the bullpen seems infinitely interchangeable.
Yu Darvish was a bust last year. Maybe he’ll turn it around this year. Jon Lester is a #2 guy who’s turning into a #3. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana are all a step away from brilliance but it is a risky bet that this is the season they take that step. They’re dangerous on the other side of the ball but something isn’t gelling for them and it’s not likely to fix itself this year.
Yasiel Puig brings his energy to the Reds, can he bring more wins? (Kareem Elgazzar/ Cincinnati.com)
While Yasiel Puig brings a whole lot of fun energy to southwest Ohio, the bigger story is the pitching rotation. Sonny Gray has mean stuff but the lights in New York were too bright. Alex Wood is an underrated pitcher who keeps his lineups in the game with a 3.29 ERA over six seasons. Puig bringing extra run support could mean good things by the Ohio River.
The NL Central may be the polar opposite of the AL Central in competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean Pittsburgh is fielding a team that’s contributing to that image.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|NL West||Dodgers||Coors||Dem Bums||Dodgers||Rockies||Dodgers|
|Rockies*||The Choking Kershaws*||Rockies||Rockies||Dodgers||Rockies|
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won the division every season since 2013. It doesn’t seem likely to change but they didn’t do a lot in the off-season. The biggest move was to sign A.J. Pollock to a five-year deal to replace Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Much like the Red Sox, this doesn’t portend well. However, it’s hard to argue that the rest of the NL West made the sort of moves that would make them legitimate challengers to that crown.
Nolan Arenado got a big contract and remains one of the most exciting players in the Majors. The departure of DJ LeMahieu was softened by signing Daniel Murphy. So they have the firepower to run up scores on their opponents, but playing in Denver is simply a difficult balance for pitching. Jon Gray seems to be one of the few pitchers that’s unfazed pitching at home or away from that elevation. It’s just hard to develop a rotation and bullpen around that. Especially when you let a guy like Adam Ottavino go to the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Seriously? How did this happen? Oh yeah, the Diamondbacks sold the house. Hey look Manny Machado.
How long until the Padres are relevant again? Ralph (Freso/ Getty Images)
They sold the house. Zack Greinke cannot be happy that his departure from the Dodgers has left him with the team he has now. Goldschmidt is in St. Louis and Steven Souza Jr. went down with a terrible knee injury and is gone for the season. Can Jake Lamb stay healthy and will Adam Jones find a new home in the desert. They have a good rotation so if the hitting is good, they’re a dangerous team to play spoiler.
San Francisco Giants
How the mighty have fallen. Let’s not forget that the Giants have won three of the last ten World Series titles. But really, that’s all that’s going for them right now. One last trip around the Majors for Bruce Bochy.
|AL Wild Card||Red Sox||Bandwagoners||Red Sux||Red Sux||Tea Partiers||Red Sox|
|NL Wild Card||Phillies||Bravos||Cards||Cardinals||Brewers||Rockies|
|Rockies||The Choking Kershaws||Phillies||Marlins||Braves||Brewers|
|ALDS 1-4||Red Sox||Rojo Sox||Yankees||Astros||Yankees||Yankees|
|Astros||White Elephants||Red Sux||Red Sux||Tea Partiers||Red Sox|
|ALDS 2-3||Yankees||Colt .45’s||Astros||Yankees||Athletics||Astros|
|Red Sox||Colt .45’s||Astros||Astros||Athletics||Astros|
|World Series||Red Sox||Coors||Dodgers||Brewers||Yankees||Cardinals|
Sorry CC Sabathia it is not looking good for you to end your career with a World Series victory. This one’s for you CC. (Kim Klement- USA TODAY Sports)
Our apologies to the New York Yankees because our prediction means they’re probably not going to win this year. We have been wrong the last five years, why change now.
BL with DJ, JJ, JB, & KB
Spring Training marks the return of green grass, warm sunshine, and the crack of the bat. Before focusing on the 2019 season, let us reflect upon our disastrous predictions for the 2018 season. We continued our time honored tradition of failing miserably to predict the future. If we are good at anything it is making consistently terrible predictions. Below was our inept attempt at predicting the 2018 Major League season.
|American League||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
|East||Yankees||Red Sox||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Red Sox|
|Red Sox||Yankees||Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Red Sox||Red Sox||Yankees|
|Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Orioles||Red Sox||Orioles||Blue Jays||Rays|
|Orioles||Orioles||Red Sox||Orioles||Blue Jays||Orioles||Blue Jays|
|Royals||White Sox||White Sox||Royals||Royals||White Sox||Tigers|
|White Sox||Royals||Tigers||Tigers||White Sox||Royals||White Sox|
|National League||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
We are awful at predicting the future. Consistency is critical for an individual or team to find success in baseball. We are consistently awful at making predictions.
A division by division breakdown shows how terrible we were in a Regular Season. Each division had a possible 30 correct predictions; five per person plus five from our aggregate votes as The Winning Run. The Yankees have the most loyal fans (John, Bernie, and Kevin), so one would expect we would successfully predict the American League East. Instead the American League East was our worst division with just three correct predictions. The American League Central was better, in part because of the clear hierarchy of teams. We managed 11 correct predictions. The American League West was our best division in the Junior Circuit with 13 correct predictions. Overall we made 27 correct predictions out of 90 in the American League, a 30% success rate.
We found more success in the Senior Circuit. Derek and Jesse are both die hard Braves fans, plus Atlanta is John’s backup team. Once again the expectation of successful predictions tied to fandom did not come true. We managed nine correct predictions, not great but not horrible. The Central was the toughest in the National League with only four correct predictions. The National League West was our best division in 2018. We made 17 correct predictions (56%), our only division above 50% predicted. We made 30 correct picks in the National League, three more than the American League. Across the regular season we made 57 correct predictions out of 180, 31.66%. A .316 Batting Average is a solid season.
Khris Davis and his perpetual .247 Batting Average led the Athletics back to October. (Nhat V. Meyer/ Bay Area News Group)
A scoring system was necessary to determine who made the best predictions. Regular Season scoring was straight forward, one point for each correct prediction. First up is Derek who managed seven points in the American League; two in the East and Central, and three from the West. He received five points from the National League; one from the East and Central, and three from the West. Derek picked four division winners, including every American League division winner. He tied with a Regular Season best 12 points.
Jesse did not enjoy predicting the American League. He received just two points; one from the Central and West. He completely missed the East. He found better success in the National League with six points; three from the East, two from the Central, and one from the West. He picked three division winners, two American League and one National League. He scored eight points.
John had a mixed bag with his predictions. He scored just four points in the American League; two from the Central and West. Surprisingly he whiffed on the East and his beloved Yankees. The National League was kinder, as he scored seven points. John scored two points from the East and whiffed again on the Central. However, he produced our only perfect division from the West. John picked three division winners, scoring a total of 11 points.
Christian Yelich sparked the Brewers to a surprising National League Central Division Crown. (Dylan Buell/ Getty Images)
Bernie struggled in the Regular Season. He scored just four points in the American League; one in the East and Central, and two in the West. He did not improve in the National League scoring only two points. He whiffed on both the East and Central, scoring only in the basement of the West. He picked only one division winner. Bernie had the worst regular season with a meager six points.
Kevin followed in John and Bernie’s footsteps by striking out on two divisions. In the American League Kevin scored four points; two from the Central and West. Another one of our die hard Yankee fans struck out on the East. Kevin was equally woeful in the Senior Circuit, scoring just four points; one from the East, swinging and missing in the Central, and three from the West. Despite his struggles, Kevin did predict three division winners on his way to eight points.
Combining our predictions we created The Winning Run’s official predictions. We scored six points in the American League despite our Yankee fans striking out in the East. We scored three points in the Central and West. In the National League we also scored six points; two in the East, one in the Central, and three in the West. We picked three division winners to equal the best Regular Season with 12 points.
|Postseason||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
|AL Wild Card||Angels||Yankees||Royals||Twins||Red Sox||Red Sox||Yankees|
|Red Sox||Angels||Blue Jays||Angels||Indians||Twins||Athletics|
|NL Wild Card||Brewers||Rockies||Cubs||Rockies||Dodgers||Diamondbacks||Cubs|
|ALDS||Astros||Indians||Indians||Astros||Astros||Red Sox||Red Sox|
|World Series||Yankees||Nationals||Astros||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Red Sox|
In October everyone could run up the score. Scoring in the Postseason was: two points for predicting the Wild Card Game, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series.
The Postseason is where legends are born and hot streaks go to die. There were 108 possible correct predictions, we made 32 correct picks, 29.62% We made two correct predictions in the Wild Card games. In the Divisional round, we made eight correct picks in the National League and 11 in the American League. In the Championship Series we made seven correct picks; four in the National League and three in the American League. In the World Series we made four correct predictions.
The Postseason separated the champions from the wannabes. A perfect October score is 104 points. No one is perfect. Derek made the worst Postseason predictions. He knew the Yankees would win the Wild Card game. He was correct the Astros would win and the Yankees would lose the Divisional Series. His predictions ended when the Dodgers won and the Rockies lost the Divisional Series. Derek made five correct Postseason predictions for only 18 points.
Justin Turner and the Dodgers could not finish their run through October to a World Series Championship. (Robert Gauthier/ Los Angeles Times)
Jesse fared better in October. He predicted the Cubs would win the National League Wild Card game. In the Divisional Series he had the Dodgers and Astros winning and the Yankees losing. His scoring continued with the Dodgers winning in the Championship Series and losing in the World Series. Jesse made six correct predictions for 38 points.
John did well in the early in October before falling apart. He predicted the Astros and Dodgers winning and the Indians and Rockies losing in the Division Series. Beyond the Division Series, John only predicted the Astros losing the Championship Series. He made five correct predictions for 24 points.
Bernie found his stride in October. He was on the money with the Astros winning the Division Series before losing the Championship Series. He predicted the Dodgers winning the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. Bernie made five correct Postseason predictions for of 40 points.
Kevin also hopped on the Dodgers train in October. He predicted the Red Sox winning and Cleveland losing the Division Series. Then it was all Dodgers. He knew the Dodgers would win the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. Kevin made five correct predictions for of 36 points.
The Winning Run’s predictions were successful thanks primarily to the Astros and Dodgers. We knew the Indians would lose the Division Series. Houston predicatively won the Division Series and lost the Championship Series. The Dodgers won the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. The Winning Run made six correct Postseason predictions for an October best 44 points.
Mookie Betts and the Red Sox celebrated another World Series victory. (www.CBSSports.com)
The baseball season is an arduous journey with many highs and lows. Champions are successful in the Regular Season and Postseason because they find a way to win. The final standings for The Winning Runs Predictions That Did Go Wrong 5.0. In last place, with a meager 30 points, Derek. He choked in the Postseason despite tying for a Regular Season high 12 points. A horrendous October left him wondering what could have been. In fifth place with 35 points, John. His solid Regular Season, 11 points, could not overcome a pedestrian Postseason. In fourth place, Kevin with 44 points. A weak Regular Season left too few options for the Postseason. He made the most of his October, but it was not enough. Tying for second place with 46 points, Jesse and Bernie. Jesse struggled in the Regular Season with just eight points. Riding the Dodgers deep into October, Jesse to edge out Kevin by a mere two points. Bernie overcame a six point disastrous Regular Season. Against all odds, Bernie used the few teams he had in October to make a deep run to collect 40 points in the Postseason. Despite our individual efforts, no one was destined to wear the championship crown as The Winning Run Predictions That Did Go Wrong 5.0 champion. We tied Derek with 12 points for the best Regular Season before dominating the Postseason with 44 points for a total of 56 points.
The 2019 Major League season is just around the corner. We will once again attempt to predict the future. This time honored tradition continually shows we are great at predicting what will not happen. Someday we could predict the future, but I doubt it.
DJ, JJ, JB, BL, & KB