Tagged: Gabe Kapler
Predictions That Did Go Wrong 9.0
What a shock! Few foresaw the Rangers defeating the Diamondbacks in the 2023 World Series. We certainly did not. Despite trying to predict the outcome of the last nine MLB seasons, we continue to know nothing. We were incredibly bad in 2023. The season was filled with great stories and terrible collapses. The Mets were the Mets and baseball was its usual unpredictable self. We may have been terrible at predicting the season, but how bad was it?
Really bad. Our scoring system is designed to clearly show who is the best at predicting the baseball season before the first pitch is thrown. Points are scored in the following ways: a correct prediction of a team’s final divisional standings in the Regular Season is one point, two points for predicting the Wild Card, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series and the Champion. A perfect score is 158 points. We were far from perfect.
American League East
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Blue Jays (1) | Steinbrenners (2) | Yankees(2) | Yankees (2) | Maple leafs (2) | Yankees (2) | Yankees (2) | Orioles |
| Yankees (5) | Devil Rays (5) | Blue Jays | Blue Jays (4) | Yankees (4) | Blue Jays (4) | Blue Jays (4) | Rays |
| Rays | Canadians | Montreal Rays | Orioles | Devil rays (6) | Orioles | Rays | Blue Jays |
| Orioles | Bean Eaters | Red Sux | Rays | Bmore | Rays | Orioles | Yankees |
| Red Sox | Camden | Orioles | Red Sox | Red Sux | Red Sox | Red Sox | Red Sox |
Our predictions got off to a rough start. Jesse was the only one to have multiple correct predictions with the Rays in second and Blue Jays in third. Derek, Bernie, Kevin, Jason, and The Winning Run all knew it would be a bad season in Boston. John missed completely. Not a great start, but hope springs eternal.
American League Central
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Guardians (3) | (Jeff) Bridges (3) | Guards | White Sox (3) | ChiSox (3) | Cleveland (3) | Guardians (3) | Twins |
| White Sox | Twinkies (4) | Twinks | Twins | Flaming Rivers | Twins (5) | White Sox (5) | Tigers |
| Twins | Southside | Chisox | Guardians | Twins | Royals | Twins (6) | Guardians |
| Tigers | Kittehs | Royals | Tigers | Rawr | White Sox | Tigers | White Sox |
| Royals | Monarchs | Tigres | Royals | KC | Tigers | Royals | Royals |
Again we knew who would be bad. The Royals never inspired us. Jason knew the White Sox would be only slightly better than last place. Bernie found the Guardians finishing third. He was the only one to have more than a single correct pick. John was now 0 for 2 divisions. A second straight division of bad predictions did not inspire confidence in the rest of our picks.
American League West
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Mariners (2) | Trashtros (1) | Cheaters (1) | Astros (1) | Trashtros (1) | Astros (1) | Astros (1) | Astros |
| Astros(4) | Halos (6) | Rangers | Angels (5) | Kraken (5) | Mariners (6) | Mariners | Rangers |
| Angels (6) | Submariners | Ohtanis | Rangers (6) | Rangers | Rangers | Angels | Mariners |
| Rangers | Brett Marteeen | Mariners | Mariners | Halos | Angels | Rangers | Angels |
| Athletics | White Elephants | Las Vegas | Athletics | Las Vegas | Oakland | Athletics | Athletics |
Finally we got on track. Derek for some reason decided the Astros were not going to win the division again. He was the only one. Everyone knew the poor A’s would be eliminated on Opening Day. Kevin and Jason had the end of the Ohtani era with the Angels again finishing fourth and out of October. Jesse had the Mariners falling back after a great 2022 season to third place. John had the Rangers finishing just behind the Astros. Everyone except Derek got back on track. How would we do in the National League?
National League East
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Braves (1) | Braves (2) | Braves | Phillies (3) | Braves (1) | Braves (1) | Braves (2) | Braves |
| Mets (4) | Amazins (4) | Mets | Braves (5) | Phillies (5) | Mets (5) | Mets (6) | Phillies |
| Phillies | Follies (6) | Phils | Mets | Fish | Phillies | Phillies | Marlins |
| Marlins | Fish | Marlins | Nationals | Amazings | Marlins | Marlins | Mets |
| Nationals | Gnats | Nats | Marlins | Nats | Nationals | Nationals | Nationals |
Maybe it was our fandom, or just logic, but the Braves were the easy choice in the National League East. The Nationals were equally easy to finish in the basement. In between was more challenging. The Mets out Mets themselves to finish fourth. Kevin got the first perfect divisional prediction. Bernie whiffed because he had too much confidence in the Nationals.
National League Central
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Cardinals (3) | Redbirds (3) | Cardinals | Cardinals (2) | Uncle Tickles (3) | Cardinals (4) | Cardinals (1) | Brewers |
| Brewers (6) | Brewcrew | Cubbies | Brewers | Cubbies | Brewers (6) | Brewers (5) | Cubs |
| Cubs | Harray Carrays | Beers | Cubs | Drunks | Cubs WIN | Cubs | Reds |
| Pirates | Cin City | Dreds | Reds | Team of catchers | Reds | Reds | Pirates |
| Reds | Buccos | Pirates | Pirates | Pirates | Pirates | Pirates | Cardinals |
The National League Central was a mystery. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run all whiffed. Derek had the Pirates in fourth, while John and Kevin had the Cubs in second. We did not predict the disaster that was the Cardinals, as everyone had them winning the division. The Reds also surprised us with their third place finish. Brutal.
National League West
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Dodgers (2) | Dodger Dogs (1) | Padres | Padres (1) | Dodgers (2) | Padres (2) | Dodgers (3) | Dodgers |
| Padres (5) | McD’s (5) | Dodgers | Dodgers (4) | Friars (4) | Dodgers (3) | Padres (4) | Diamondbacks |
| Giants | McCovey’s Cove | Dbacks | Giants (6) | Dbacks (6) | Diamondbacks | Giants | Padres |
| Diamondbacks | Snecks | Giants | Rockies | Giants | Giants | Diamondbacks | Giants |
| Rockies | Coors | Rockies | Diamondbacks | Decisional Front Office | Colorado | Rockies | Rockies |
The Dodgers in first and Rockies last were easy. The Diamondbacks surprised everyone with their surge to the National League Pennant. The slide that cost Gabe Kapler his job was easy to see coming. The Padres tried and failed to contend. Kevin only mixed up the Padres and Diamondbacks. Bernie whiffed again, striking out on the entire National League. Making predictions is hard, as we proved yet again.
Standings after the Regular Season
- Kevin- 13
- Jesse- 10
- Jason- 9
- Derek- 8
- John- 8
- The Winning Run- 8
- Bernie- 5
At the end of the Regular Season only Kevin was halfway decent. It had been a long miserable Summer for everyone else. Bernie missed the Senior Circuit, but he was only three points behind Derek, John, and The Winning Run. Could things turn around for the better in October or were we doomed by our bad predictions?
Postseason
American League Wild Card
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Guardians | (Jeff) Bridges | Guards | White Sox | ChiSox | Cleveland | Guardians | Twins |
| Angels | Halos | Twinks | Rangers | Devil Rays | Mariners | Twins | Blue Jays |
| Astros | Twinkies | Jays | Blue Jays | Yankees | Blue Jays | Blue Jays | Rangers |
| Yankees | Devil Rays | Rangers | Angels | Kraken | Twins | White Sox | Rays |
John found his groove in the Wild Card. He had the Twins, Blue Jays, and Rangers. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run had two correct picks each in the Wild Card. Kevin’s good luck hit hard times, while Derek continued to show how little he knows about the future of baseball. This was a bad time to make bad predictions.
National League Wild Card
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Cardinals | Redbirds | Cards | Phillies | Uncle Tickles | Cardinals | Dodgers | Diamondbacks |
| Brewers | Follies | Phils | Giants | Dbacks | Mets | Mets | Brewers |
| Mets | Amazins | Dodgers | Dodgers | Friars | Dodgers | Padres | Phillies |
| Padres | McD’s | Mets | Braves | Phillies | Brewers | Brewers | Marlins |
Kevin reversed his fortunes with two correct picks. Everyone else had either the Phillies or Brewers. Bernie finally had a correct National League prediction. While it was good to have at least one correct prediction, it was not great that the majority of our picks were terrible.
Standings after the Wild Card
- Kevin- 17
- Jesse- 16
- John- 16
- Jason- 15
- The Winning Run- 14
- Bernie- 11
- Derek- 10
The Wild Card round helped John and Bernie rebound from the Regular Season. Bernie was out of the basement. Derek was terrible as he took Bernie’s place. Kevin saw his lead shrink. The Wild Card created chaos, as predicted.
American League Divisional Series
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Blue Jays | Trashtros | Cheaters | Astros | Trashtros | Astros | Astros | Astros |
| Astros | Twinkies | Guards | Angels | Kraken | Blue Jays | Blue Jays | Twins |
| Mariners | Steinbrenners | Yankees | Yankees | Maple leafs | Yankees | Yankees | Rangers |
| Angels | (Jeff) Bridges | Jays | White Sox | Devil Rays | Cleveland | Guardians | Orioles |
The Astros were the easy pick, even Derek had Houston playing in the Divisional Series. Jesse also had the Twins, giving him points over everyone else. Otherwise our predictions were living in a fantasy land.
National League Divisional Series
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Braves | Dodger Dogs | Padres | Padres | Braves | Braves | Cardinals | Diamondbacks |
| Padres | Amazins | Cards | Giants | Friars | Mets | Padres | Dodgers |
| Dodgers | Braves | Braves | Cardinals | Dodgers | Padres | Braves | Phillies |
| Cardinals | Follies | Dodgers | Braves | Dbacks | Dodgers | Dodgers | Braves |
The Braves and Dodgers were easy picks. The National League ran through them. Only Bernie missed Los Angeles. Jesse with the Phillies and Kevin with the Diamondbacks had a third team in the Divisional Series. Jesse was making moves while the rest of us languished.
Standings after the Divisional Series
- Jesse- 36
- Kevin- 33
- John- 28
- Jason- 27
- The Winning Run- 26
- Derek- 22
- Bernie- 19
Jesse launched past Kevin. Derek and Bernie were duking it out for last place. None of us were doing well. Our predictions were trash.
American League Championship Series
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Blue Jays | Trashtors | Cheaters | Angels | Maple Leafs | Astros | Yankees | Rangers |
| Mariners | (Jeff) Bridges | Yankees | Yankees | Kraken | Yankees | Astros | Astros |
The Astros kept marching towards the World Series. Jesse, John, Jason, and The Winning Run knew this. Derek, Bernie, and Kevin did not get the memo. Derek and Bernie continued fighting in the cellar. Kevin’s whiff hurt his title chances. Besides Houston, we had no clue on the American League.
National League Championship Series
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Braves | Amazins | Padres | Padres | Braves | Braves | Braves | Diamondbacks |
| Dodgers | Braves | Braves | Braves | Dodgers | Dodgers | Padres | Phillies |
We were terrible at the American League. We were clueless about the Senior Circuit. The Mets and Padres Regular Season failures haunted us. Both the Braves and Dodgers failed to live up to October expectations. What were we thinking?
Standings after the Championship Series
- Jesse- 44
- John- 36
- Jason- 35
- Kevin- 33
- The Winning Run- 26
- Derek- 22
- Bernie- 19
Kevin plummeted down the rankings. Derek and Bernie readied for a futility throw down. Jesse’s lead looked hard to beat, but the Fall Classic awaited us. Kevin, Jason, and John were within striking distance if Jesse faltered.
World Series
| Derek | Jesse | John | Bernie | Kevin | Jason | The Winning Run | Reality |
| Braves | (Jeff) Bridges | Padres | Yankees | Kraken | Astros | Braves | Rangers |
| Blue Jays | Braves | Cheaters | Padres | Braves | Braves | Astros | Diamondbacks |
We suck. None of us predicted either World Series team. A big swing and miss. There would be no last second change in the standings. Try as we might, we know nothing about the future of baseball.
Final Standings
- Jesse- 44
- John- 36
- Jason- 35
- Kevin- 33
- The Winning Run- 26
- Derek- 22
- Bernie- 19
Congratulations Jesse, you are the best among us at predicting the 2023 MLB season. We were all terrible, but you were slightly less terrible. Maybe in 2024 we will be better…doubtful.
DJ
Managerial Merry Go Round
Every offseason is filled with the managerial merry go round. Teams look for new leadership in the dugout for one reason or another. This offseason is especially busy as eight teams will have someone new filling out the lineup card on Opening Day in 2024. Over a quarter of teams in MLB changed leadership is obviously a lot.
In the past, managers have been given more time to show what they can do. When they were not successful, they were relieved of their duties after proving they were not right for the job. Ownership is no longer willing to wait, baseball is transitioning to a what have you done for me lately philosophy. Teams who want to win are not content with long rebuilds. The time to win is now. It is not better or worse to have a short leash with managers, it is just different. It is better to move on quickly when it becomes clear the wrong person was hired, but it also does not allow managers to reap the benefits of a rebuild. It is a mixed bag, but steady leadership is never a bad thing.
Two of the managerial openings were not shocking. The retirements of Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker has dedicated his life to baseball. The grind takes a toll on people and he felt it was time to step off the diamond. Francona has had health issues the last few years. If you do not have your health, nothing else matters. The Astros search took them to their Bench Coach Joe Espada. The Guardians hired Stephen Vogt, who retired from playing in 2022 and spent last season as the Mariners Bullpen Coach. Houston and Cleveland look to continue their success moving forward, and their need for new managers was due to life happening, not the scoreboard.
The Mets looked unstoppable on paper in Spring Training. Then the season started and it all went wrong. The Mets finished in fourth place, six games under .500, and 29 Games Behind the Braves. Buck Showalter was fired and replaced by Yankees Bench Coach Carlos Mendoza. Can he bring winning back to Queens? Another marque team looking to return to their winning ways got their new manager in a surprising twist. Long time Brewers Manager Craig Counsell was suddenly hired by the division rival Cubs. The move came with the largest annual salary for a manager, $8 million per season. The move meant David Ross was suddenly unemployed and Milwaukee was scrambling to replace Counsell. The Brewers named their Bench Coach Pat Murphy, who coached Counsell in college, as their new manager.
In a similar move, Padres Manager Bob Melvin left San Diego for the division rival Giants. The relationship between Melvin and Padres General Manager A.J. Preller was bad. After a disappointing season for the Padres, with high payroll and even higher expectations, like the Mets, Melvin knew it was time for a change. The escape up the coast to the Bay Area was made possible by the firing of Gabe Kapler after only one trip to the Postseason in his four seasons managing in San Francisco. The Padres turned to Mike Schildt to guide San Diego to October. The managerial opening for the Angels is the most critical for baseball. This is not a dig at Phil Nevin, for whom the Angels declined their 2024 option, but the organization as a whole has failed. Los Angeles continues to waste prime seasons for Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, if he returns. The best players in baseball should be showcased in October, instead Trout is in Philadelphia watching the Eagles and Ohtani is doing commercials for one of his endorsements. Hopefully the hiring of Ron Washington rights the Angels ship. Washington was terrific in Texas, guiding the team to two American League pennants. He is beloved in Atlanta. A baseball man through and through, Washington’s success in Los Angeles can only mean good things for baseball.
Teams want to win and win now. Call it dysfunction, bad hiring, or an unwillingness to be patient, but teams are not wasting seasons wondering if they hired the right manager. Baseball is a business and part of that business is putting a winning team on the field. This high turnover is a sign teams are trying to win, even if the turmoil extends into the front office. Looking at you White Sox and Marlins. Sustained dysfunction is a killer for any franchise. Even when everything and everyone works together, creating a winning baseball team is extremely difficult.
The 2023 season had some spectacularly disappointing teams. Perhaps some of the most disappointing of all time. Many of those teams are making changes this Winter. Time will tell if these changes create winners, or if the manager is the first of many changes. Around and around we go.
DJ
The Winning Run 