June 13, 2017

Missing Mr. Scully

I miss Vin Scully.

I am not a die hard Dodger fan. I have only been to Los Angeles and Dodger Stadium once. I was attending my now wife’s cousin’s wedding in Oxnard and as part of the trip we went to Dodger Stadium for a game. Even then I went to the game more to see the stadium than the team. The Dodgers pummeled the Phillies and we got to experience the most annoying Phillies fan on the West Coast.

The most annoying Phillies fan on the West Coast. Philadelphia was losing 6-0 in the 2nd inning at this point. (The Winning Run/ KCL)

My primary love for the Dodgers is Vin Scully. In recent years, I always enjoyed listening to the broadcast when Los Angeles were at home so that I could listen to the voice of baseball. It never mattered what the score was, I just wanted to listen to the stories. The history of the foul pole, the rise in popularity of beards on ball players, or anecdotes about some player who has not played a game in decades. Yes, please, and thank you. There was no need for a partner, Vin Scully could do it all. He could call the game, debate controversial calls, supply the history of almost anything going on, and provide endless entertainment and information.

I have tried to watch a few Dodger games this season, but Charlie Steiner, Rick Monday, Joe Davies, Nomar Garciaparra, and Orel Hershiser just are not Vin Scully. It is unfair to compare these broadcasters to the greatest of all time. Steiner and Davies are professional, they earned the opportunity to call games in the Majors. Monday, Garciaparra, and Hershiser bring their playing experience and expertise to the booth. In some ways it may be better with this new group of Dodger broadcasters, but the retirement of Vin Scully leaves something missing from every Dodger home game.

I have never met Vin Scully, doubt I ever will. The closest I will probably ever get was sitting in the outfield bleachers that day, straining my eyes to see if I could see the voice of baseball in his broadcast booth calling the game. Watching a master ply their craft allows you a look inside a world where greatness is the norm. I wanted to watch.

The score never mattered, it was about spending time with my buddy, Mr. Scully. (Jean Fruth/ National Baseball Hall of Fame)

My now sister-in-law went to the game with us and asked me why I kept straining to see the press boxes. My now wife told her it was because I was trying to see my buddy, Vince Gulley. I should explain. When I started dating my wife five years ago she knew the bare minimum about baseball. She has learned more than she ever wanted to, mostly through exhaustion and/or osmosis. Even now she can only name a handful of announcers. Marty Brennaman, mostly because she is from and we live in Cincinnati. Harry Caray, Skip Caray, and Chip Caray because my love for the Atlanta Braves, and thus the connection of the Caray family. She knows Joe Buck, but she has a physical reaction at the mere mention of his name, that turns even more sour if he is “announcing” a baseball or football game. It took some time but she now knows Vin Scully. For several years she did not understand how to pronounce his name and thought I was saying Vince Gulley. The many late nights I have stayed up late just watching a Dodgers game after a long day of work she began calling him my buddy.

Vin Scully as my buddy is an easy visualization. Listening to him call a game was like watching a game with a friend and just talking about what was happening and anything else that came up along the way. Maybe it was about the game on the field, or maybe it was just something that came to mind. It did not matter what it was, listening to Vin Scully was always a pleasure. The game on the field was central, but not necessarily required for the time spent between Vin Scully and his friends to be quality time. He knew when to talk and when to just let the sounds of the game flow over you and transport you to Dodger Stadium.

I miss Vin Scully. I am glad I was able to spend so many late nights and sunny Sunday afternoons with him. I am also glad he was able to leave the game at a time and in a fashion that suited him. There is a certain justice in seeing the greatest of all time walk away at a time and place of their own choosing, not when age, injury, or declining ability force them out. During his farewell address to Congress, General Douglas MacArthur said, “old generals don’t die, they just fade away.” Vin Scully was never a general, but his retirement has allowed him to fade away, just the like sun on a baseball diamond where for so many decades he called the game.

May 31, 2017

Hit Parade

Single season records can be reached without the need for a career filled with success. Players only need to have a single magical season to reach these marks. Think Roger Maris in 1961 or even a career year like Mark Fidrych in 1976. The toughest record to beat now may be the single season hits record. Ichiro Suzuki collected 262 hits in 2004, finally topping George Sisler’s single season record of 257 hits that had stood since 1920. There have been 530 individual efforts where a player collected at least 200 hits in a season. Many players have had multiple 200 hit seasons, with Ichiro and Pete Rose holding the record with ten 200 hit seasons.

200 hits in a single season is not a rare accomplishment. We’ve seen, over the last several seasons, a handful of players collecting 200 hits. However, the Houston Astros have the talent to potentially do something no team has ever done by having four teammates collect 200 hits in the same season. Only three times in Major League history has a team had three teammates collect 200 hits in the same season, but never a fourth. The 1963 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers, and the 1991 Texas Rangers had three teammates collect 200 hits. Teammates who are able to consistently hit and get on base does not necessarily translate to success. The 1963 Cardinals finished 2nd in the National League, 6 games behind the Dodgers for the Pennant. The 1982 Brewers lost the World Series in seven games to the Cardinals. The 1991 Rangers finished 3rd in the American League West, 10 games behind the Twins. Success in baseball is a team effort. Simply having a third or more of your lineup hitting all season does not mean you can be lackluster elsewhere.

Jose Altuve is Houston’s best hitter. 200 hits a season is close to automatic. (Elaine Thompson, STF)

The 2017 Houston Astros could be the first team to have four teammates collect 200 hits in the same season thanks to the ABC’S. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer. Jose Altuve is a hitting machine, for whom not collecting 200 hits in a season would make it a down year. Altuve has collected at least 200 hits in three out of five full seasons in the Majors. Bregman has hit at every level in college and in the minors and should continue to develop into an outstanding consistent bat in the Houston lineup. Bregman played in only 146 minor league games after being drafted by Houston out of LSU. Starting at A Ball, Bregman batted .259, High A .319, AA .297, and AAA .333. Bregman can hit and he is starting to settle in with the Astros. Correa is a do it all super star in the making. Entering his third full season in the Majors, Correa continues to improve his strikeout to walk rate. Correa is still learning to hit at the Major League level and his strikeout rate should continue to decline. George Springer is an everyday player who can reach 200 hits simply by cutting down on his strikeouts and focusing on hitting singles and doubles instead of swinging for the fences. In 2016, his first full healthy season in the Majors, Springer hit 29 doubles and 29 home runs with 88 walks and 178 strikeouts. If he can combine plate discipline to draw more walks and cutting down on his big swings to strike out less, perhaps down to 125 times a season, that may translate to 50 more balls in play each season. Springer collected 168 hits against those 178 strikeouts. 50 more balls in play could mean collecting 200 hits.

Alex Bregman is still getting comfortable in the Majors, but he has shown from college through the minors and in Houstn that he can hit. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

The ability to hit and get on base will become slightly easier as opposing teams may prefer to face Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and/or Springer than give up crushing scores to the big bats behind them in the lineup. Carlos Beltran, Evan Gattis, and Brian McCann can all launch a baseball over the fence with cautionary frequency. Every night at least two of the three power bats will be protecting Houston’s hit parade. Every night is a new nightmare for opposing pitchers. They’re faced with either a swift destruction from power or the drowning quicksand from a constant stream of singles here and doubles there.

Astros Manager A.J. Hinch has had George Springer leading off, setting the stage for Jose Altuve batting third and Carlos Correa batting fourth. Once the speed and contact have put the pressure on opposing pitchers Hinch has had Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and/or Evan Gattis batting fourth or fifth in nearly every game. Alex Bregman has most often worked to reset the stage by batting eighth, but he also has the second most at bats in the Astros lineup batting second or sixth. Bregman appears to be the utility batter for Houston as he can help the Astros turn the batting order over or he can fill in to help set the stage for Altuve, Correa, or the power of Beltran, McCann, or Gattis.

Is there anything Carlos Correa can’t do on the diamond? (Brace Hemmelgam/Getty Images)

There are three major factors that may hamper the quest for four single-season, 200-hit teammates for the 2017 Astros. First is the relative youth of Bregman, Correa, and Springer. Slumps and growing pains are often a matter of when, not if, especially for younger hitters. Every batter struggles at one point in their career in some way, past success does not guarantee future success. Second, injuries. The Major League season is a 162 game grind that breaks down even the strongest and toughest players in the world. The Astros are not immune to injuries and missing even a week or more could put 200 hits out of reach for a player. Third, Houston currently has an 8 game lead in the American League West over the Angels and the Rangers. Any sized lead can disappear over the next four months, but with each passing day the Astros make it a little more difficult to be caught. If the Astros run away with the West, A.J. Hinch could decide to rest his players down the stretch, meaning losing at bats and potential hits to rest them for the playoffs.

George Springer can hit plenty of home runs, but his greatest value for the Astros might be getting on base ahead of Houston’s sluggers. (AP Photo/ David J. Phillip)

There are plenty of ifs peppered in the scenario of the Astros having four teammates collect 200 hits in 2017. The Astros’ core is young, the years of tanking have finally provided Houston the draft positioning to get the team they sought all along. A young, dynamic team that is built to win both now and in the future. The quartet of Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Springer may never collect 200 hits in a season, but 2017 seems to be the first real opportunity for them to make a run at this particular landmark record. The hit parade in Houston is fun to watch and so far has resulted in plenty of wins for the Astros. The hits record would be nice, but the Astros are only concerned with winning their first World Series.

May 8, 2017

Globalizing the American Pastime

Soccer, or football as most people call it, is the global game. People of all ages play the beautiful game from the busy streets of New York City to rural villages all over the world, like this one in Rwanda. Soccer, as Americans call it, is globally popular for a variety of reasons, but I believe the two most important are the requirements to play in terms of people and equipment. Only have one friend to play with? Simple! It’s one on one. I hope you can dribble. Live on less than a dollar a day and not positive where your next meal will come from? Here’s some rolled up cloth that will work as a ball. The simplicity of the game opens it up to almost every person on the planet.

Baseball has long sought to expand its global reach, and the advent of the World Baseball Classic was part of that vision. The more countries watching and playing baseball would mean a larger talent pool for professional baseball, but also the more money organizations like Major League Baseball can make. FIFA and leagues like the Premier League are about growing the sport, but ultimately they are businesses interested in making more money. The best way to increase income is to reach into every available market, even creating new markets, to sell your product.

Gift Ngoepe is not only the firt South African to make it to the Majors, he is the first person from the entire African continent. (Ronald C. Modra/ Sports Imagery/ Getty Images)

If baseball ever rivals soccer in global appeal it will not happen any time soon. At the most grassroots level baseball requires more than soccer. Finding a stick and a makeshift ball may not sound like much but it can be too much for a game for those living in areas without trees or on the edge of survival. A makeshift baseball has to be harder than a makeshift soccer ball for the ball to travel any distance when struck with the makeshift bat. Baseball can work with just two people. Playing catch or one person hitting and the other pitching means baseball at the most basic level, like soccer can involve a minimum number of people. Baseball is heading in the right direction, but growth will take time and Major League Baseball must remain patient to see the fruits of its labor.

Baseball is the American Pastime All 50 states plus the District of Columbia have sent at least 12 players to the Major Leagues. Alaska ranks last with only 12 Major League players and California is first with 2,191 players. Every state could field a team and have a tournament to determine which state reigns supreme. While this tournament rages on, ignoring time to allow all 16,553 American born players to be eligible for the tournament, the rest of the world could watch and learn. There have been 45 countries other than the United States to have at least one player reach the Major Leagues. The Dominican Republic has the most players with 674 while Afghanistan Belgium, Belize, China, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Honduras, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, Switzerland, and Vietnam have all sent one player to the Majors. In addition to countries, there are seven territories which have sent at least one player to the Majors, with Puerto Rico having sent 258 players and American Samoa and Hong Kong sending one player each. The globalizing of baseball would not be complete without Ed Porray, who was born on a ship sailing the Atlantic Ocean.

The globalizing of baseball was noticeable last week with the Major League debuts of Gift Ngoepe (South Africa) and Dovydas Neverauskas (Lithuania). Both players are the first Major League players from their home countries. Ngoepe is the first African born player to reach the Majors. The African continent is home to over one billion people, the talent pool is there, waiting to be found. The careers of Ngoepe and Neverauskas will hopefully be long, but it is doubtful they will be the best player from their home nation. They are the frontrunners who have shown that it is possible. One player makes it to the Majors, teams and scouts may file it away as a place to remember when they have nowhere else to go scout. Two, three, four players, start rising through the minors, suddenly they will begin paying attention and even investing time and resources to developing the talent. What starts as a drip could potentially turn into a river or it could be an aberration.

Dovydas Neverauskas is the first Lithuanian to make it to the Majors, could he be the beginning of an eastern European baseball pipeline? Only time will tell. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAT Sports)

Only 19 of the 52 countries and territories that have sent a player to the Majors could field a team and join the fictional tournament involving each American state. Another 19 countries and territories have only had one player reach the Major Leagues. There are roughly 233 countries and territories in the world, and only 53 of them have had a player reach the Major Leagues. Major League Baseball is only batting .227. Not every country will become a hotbed for baseball, but expanding the reach of the game is critical for the continued growth and development of the sport. The 2017 World Baseball Classic saw Israel make a surprising run by getting out of pool play. Yes the Israeli team was heavily Jewish-Americans, however the exposure of the team to the Israeli people should help facilitate growth of the game within Israel itself.

Time will tell if the World Baseball Classic is an avenue for growing the game of baseball or if is simply a tournament held every four years. The arrival of Gift Ngoepe and Dovydas Neverauskas in Pittsburgh happen to occur during the same week. Only one person can be the first player from their home country, but the hope is there will be more to follow them to the Majors. Baseball has a long ways to go before it can become a truly global sport like soccer, but Major League Baseball and other professional leagues are on the right track with the World Baseball Classic. Players from the far corners of the globe will not arrive overnight, but the hope is in the coming years the game will have a more global flare. The more people involved in baseball around the world, the better.

April 25, 2017

Opening and Closing Time

If the New York Mets had a team motto for the 2017 season it would something like, “Finishing what you started and start what you want to finish.” 47 games, almost 30% of the season, could determine if the other 115 games matter in Queens.

The Mets schedule has them playing against only National League East opponents until May 8th when the Giants come to Flushing. The NL East can be shaped by how well the Mets come out of the gate. A great start to the season would mean the rest of the East has to beat up on each other while the Mets sit back and watch. It is hard to catch up with a team when you are not playing them. A terrible start could mean it is the Mets who are struggling to play catch up all summer.

A good start and finish could see Queens celebrating late into October. (NewsDay/ Thomas A. Ferrara)

Even if the Mets are unable to run away with the East with a successful beginning of the season, so long as they remain close they will have the opportunity to catch up at the end of the season. The final 15 games of the Mets’ season is against only NL East opponents. If the Nationals, the expected winner, have not clinched the Division, the 3 game series in Queens starting on September 22nd could decide who wins the National League East in 2017.

In 2016, the Mets began the 2016 season 20-12 (0.625) through their first 32 games and finished the season 9-6 (0.600) in their last 15 games. The Nationals also began the 2016 season 20-12 through the first 32 games, but finished 7-8 (0.467) over their last 15 games. This 2 game difference could be reduced to 8 season games that eventually led to the Nationals winning the East. Washington went 7-3 in the last 10 games before they clinched the division and began resting players for the playoffs. The Nationals were playing well when they secured their playoff spot, and then let off the game and coasted through the finish line.

The Mets could be the smacked in the face by their own play by the end of the season. (www.mlb.com)

Injuries happen to every team, so it is hard to justify a team coming up short based solely on an injury to a single player or a select group of players. The easiest way for the Mets to win the East is to play better against the Nationals and the Braves. In 2016 the Mets were 7-12 against Washington and 9-10 against the Braves. The Mets should have a winning record against the Braves and at least play .500 against the Nationals. This is a three game swing in the wins column, reducing the Nationals lead down to five games. New York went 12-7 against both the Phillies and the Marlins and needs to do so again this season. Good teams beat up on the teams they are better than in an effort to stockpile victories.

The Mets are off to an 8-11 start, wins and loses through 19 games this season. Their first 32 games and their last 15 games, roughly 30% of the season will loom large as to the success or failure of the 2017 season in Flushings. The Mets can put pressure on the National League East from the beginning or dig themselves into a whole that could be nearly impossible to get out of. If the Mets hope to finish what they start this season, they must start what they want to finish at the beginning of the season.

April 4, 2017

Predictions Sure To Go Wrong 4.0

Let’s try this again. For the fourth year in a row The Winning Run will try in vain to accurately predict what will happen during the 2017 Major League Baseball season. We do this knowing that we are terrible at this, yet it is still fun to try. The only thing that we can guarantee about our predictions are that they are wrong and the actual season will be better than the season we predicted. Thanks to Bernie for his commentary on each team.

We realize that the season has already begun and that we are late to the party. There is a good reason for this. We were all attending Derek’s wedding with Jesse as the Best Man, Bernie as a groomsman, and John as an usher. Sorry about the delay, life got busy. And so, here are our predictions for the 2017 season.

National League

East	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Washington Nationals	New York Muttz	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals
2nd	New York Mets*	Washington Gnats	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets
3rd	Miami Marlins	Atlanta Bravos	New York Mets	Miami Marlins
4th	Atlanta Braves	Miami Fish	Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves
5th	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Follies	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals – These guys are like Peyton Manning. Great in the regular season but can’t seem to navigate the playoffs. Will they capture hardware this year? I won’t hold my breath. Bryce Harper is pretty much a force of nature in the game but more like a tornado in that the damage is only done if you get in the way.

New York Mets – I’m torn about putting them further down the list. Why? Because of another f-ing football player – Tim Tebow. With arguably the best rotation in the league and young bats that are finding their stride, these guys only get in their own way. If they could borrow some of the “No F@#$s Given” attitude of their crosstown rivals, I’d put them in the NLCS without hesitation. If there’s even a whisper of Tebow getting called up after the All-Star Break, write these guys off.

Miami Marlins – Stanton looked good in the WBC. The team met with considerable tragedies last season. Even if they get it together and settled this year, they’re a couple seasons away from elbowing out the Mets and the Nationals.

Atlanta Braves – The Braves are rebuilding with some interesting young talent. Dansby Swanson is really just the icing on the cake. Big Sexy, Bartolo Colon, is just fun to watch as he continues trucking along as if he were decades younger. Hopefully, he’ll share his experience in a way that keeps the young guys on track and out of trouble. It’s still a long way from seeing them place higher in the division.

Philadelphia Phillies – There are few franchises that I can think of that are more poorly managed from the front office on down. Did I bother to look up anything on their off-season? Why bother?

Bartolo Colon brings his power bat and arm to Atlanta, can Big Sexy hit career home run #2 for the Braves. (www.mlb.com)

Central	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Harry Caray’s	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs
2nd	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Buckos*	St. Louis Cardinals*	St. Louis Cardinals*
3rd	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Fighting Vottos	Pittsburgh Pirates	Milwaukee Brewers
4th	Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Dreadbirds	Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates
5th	Cincinnati Reds	Milwaukee Brewniversity	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs have to get the nod for being the World Series Champs but especially so because the win came on the backs of a core group of young talent in Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell. Javier Baez continues to amaze with his acrobatic defense and it’s getting more refined. Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks are the only guys on the rotation I’d trust to finish the season strong but that may be all they need to go deep in the playoffs.

St. Louis Cardinals – I’m now more convinced than ever that Yadier Molina is a cyborg. I keep thinking they’re too old to keep up and I’m looking like a fool as they pull out wins. What’s also got me intrigued this season is the new roster of incoming talent with guys like Alex Reyes (before he needed Tommy John surgery) and Luke Weaver. They’re rebuilding while still competing for the playoffs. That deserves a lot of respect.

Milwaukee Brewers – I think they’re trying to follow the Cardinals’ example of rebuilding without demolishing. For some odd reason, I have a feeling Junior Guerra will have a great season. I don’t put a lot of stock into spring training except to see how individuals spent their offseason getting ready but they’re looking pretty good.

Pittsburgh Pirates – I’ve been high on them in the past. I think I need to sober up. Aside from their all-star outfield, I’m not sure there’s a lot else to be hopeful about.

Cincinnati Reds – They’re rebuilding. I don’t think they’ll be the worst but this division may be the overall best division in all of MLB. Finishing last in the Central but maybe 10th in the National League.

West	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Silver Bullets	Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants
2nd	San Francisco Giants*	Los Angeles Vin Scullys*	Colorado Rockies*	Los Angeles Dodgers*
3rd	Colorado Rockies	San Padres Big Macs	San Francisco Giants	Colorado Rockies
4th	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Trouser Snakes	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks
5th	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Gigantors	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants – Cueto and Samardzija still have enough in the tank which makes this the best rotation in this division. Melancon is a solid closer addition to anchor a bullpen. The talent on this roster is well-experienced but not fighting the twilight of their careers.

Los Angeles Dodgers – These guys caught lightning in a bottle. Seager is my pick to take MVP this season. But there’s some age on this team that’s probably going to show. It’s not just tarnish, it might be rust. I’m not sold on Joc Pederson. Though he’s shown some moments of pure brilliance, it’s too streaky.

Colorado Rockies – If Trevor Story stays healthy this team may be knocking on the Dodgers door…wait, no pitching. Nevermind. Arizona might catch them by surprise.

Arizona Diamondbacks – It’s a team game. Goldschmidt and Greinke can’t do it all themselves. What I don’t get is why this team can’t seem to get it together when it seems to be there on paper.

San Diego Padres – This team may have better luck if they spent some time with the real life versions of their mascot.

The Diamondbacks and Paul Goldschmidt could be a surprise in the NL West. (Ezra Shaw)

American League

East	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Boston Red Sox	Toronto Canucks	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox
2nd	Toronto Blue Jays*	New York Spankees	New York Yankees*	New York Yankees*
3rd	New York Yankees	Baltimore Riots	Toronto Blue Jays	Baltimore Orioles*
4th	Baltimore Orioles	Steve Irwin Killers	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays
5th	Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Dead Sux	Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox – Getting Chris Sale indicates the Boston Red Sox want to win now. With Price in the pipeline, they might have a slow start to the season but this is probably the most formidable American League rotation this season. There’s plenty of hitting available in the lineup without Benintendi. So he’s just icing on the cake. Blech.

New York Yankees – I think it’s safe to say that Tanaka is a bonafide ace. I’ve heard that Sabathia may have finally perfected another pitch and developed the sort of patience necessary for an arm that’s lost some heat. They got some bats to hopefully keep them in games late so that they can show off what may be one of the top 5 bullpens in the league.

Baltimore Orioles – Manny Machado is a man amongst boys and it’s often forgotten how young he is. Adam Jones is still a force to be reckoned with. This is a roster that’s really good up and down but what I think puts them in third place is that there’s more potential firepower in the rotation and lineup than…

Toronto Blue Jays – Probably the most balanced team in all of major league baseball. Yet, the underachieving in the playoffs is problematic for me. I think this is the year where it’s going to catch up to them this season.

Tampa Bay Rays – Evan Longoria amazes me that he’s still producing the way he does. Chris Archer is an ace on almost any team. What else do they have? Yeah….

Chris Sale changed his sox and could make Boston untouchable in the East. (www.si.com)

Central	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Cleveland Indians	Kansas City Monarchs	Cleveland Indians	Cleveland Indians
2nd	Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Up Three Games To None*	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals
3rd	Kansas City Royals	Chicago Black Sox	Minnesota Twins	Detroit Tigers
4th	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twinkies	Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins
5th	Chicago White Sox	Detroit Militarized Zone	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians – These guys didn’t get into the World Series because they were built on foundation of well-experienced and stalwart veteran stars. This is a dynamic team with a creative manager. 2017 is a reloading, not refurbishing, year.

Kansas City Royals – Something didn’t click in 2016 but this is a well-balanced team. The departure of Wade Davis and Edinson Volquez is troublesome but they added some bats to increase their hitting production. Danny Duffy is an exciting talent that is screaming elite ace but let’s hold judgement until we see how he navigates the season.

Detroit Tigers – A veteran team with the closest thing to Murderers’ Row in the AL. If Verlander bounces back quickly they should be considered higher but, aside from Zimmermann, the rotation is unexciting. K-Rod had a great 2016 season but this doesn’t seem to be a bullpen that can truly shorten games. It’s feast or famine with the Tigers this year.

Minnesota Twins – They circled the wagons a bit with their lineup but it’s a solid core group. There’s an interesting variety in the rotation but that’s all that can be said about their pitching.

Chicago White Sox – New manager and a great prospect. But at what cost? Sorry, but the departure of Sale and Eaton leaves a lot to be desired.

West	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
1st	Houston Astros	The Acute Angles of Anaheim	Seattle Mariners	Houston Astros
2nd	Seattle Mariners*	Houston Colt 45s*	Houston Astros*	Seattle Mariners
3rd	Texas Rangers	Oakland White Elephants	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers
4th	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Dangers	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels
5th	Oakland Athletics	Seattle Seamen	Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics

Houston Astros – Reddick, Aoki, and Beltran…the Astros built up one of the more enviable lineups in the American League. This should take the pressure off an ERA heavy rotation that can usually pitch deep into games. Gregerson and Giles is a great 1-2 punch in the bullpen.

Seattle Mariners – This remodeling seems to be going along well. Edwin Diaz looked good in the World Baseball Classic with some nasty late movement in his off-speed pitches. But still not sure the Mariners pitching can consistently give the lineup 8 innings to get to him. This lineup looks good though so opposing pitchers may have trouble getting around Cruz and Cano.

Texas Rangers – These guys finished first last season and are getting what should be a healthy Yu Darvish. But I’m not sold that the departure of Desmond, Beltran, and Moreland was properly accounted for in their hitting lineup.

Los Angeles Angels – Having the best player in baseball shouldn’t make a team complacent. But that’s what we have here. The addition of Cameron Maybin brings some good lumber to the yard but the rotation is iffy and the bullpen is in shambles.

Oakland Athletics – These guys may need a new training staff. To say the pitching staff is a stone’s throw away from triage belies the fact that it’s a stone thrown by my four year-old godson.

Robinson Cano and the Mariners should be tough to handle with solid pitching and hitting. (Troy Taormina- USA TODAY Sports)

The Playoffs

My season picks were more serious than these. This is more about what I would like to see happen and what I think would make a great storyline for the game. (The number following indicates games won in the series)

NL Wild Card (previously indicated by a * in the season ranking predictions)

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner	San Francisco Giants	Pittsburgh Buckos	Colorado Rockies	Los Angeles Dodgers
Loser	New York Mets	Los Angeles Vin Scullys	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals

Al Wild Card (previously indicated by a * in the season ranking predictions)

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner	Seattle Mariners	Cleveland Up Three Games To None	Houston Astros	New York Yankees
Loser	Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Colt 45s	New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles

NLDS

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner (1-4)	Washington Nationals	Colorado Silver Bullets	Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Dodgers – 3
Loser (1-4)	San Francisco Giants	Pittsburgh Buckos	Colorado Rockies	Chicago Cubs – 2
Winner (2-3)	Chicago Cubs	New York Muttz	Chicago Cubs	San Francisco Giants – 3
Loser (2-3)	Los Angeles Dodgers	Chicago Harry Caray’s	Los Angeles Dodgers	Washington Nationals – 1

ALDS

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner (1-4)	Boston Red Sox	Kansas City Monarchs	Cleveland Indians	New York Yankees – 3
Loser (1-4)	Seattle Mariners	Cleveland Up Three Games To None	Houston Astros	Cleveland Indians – 2
Winner (2-3)	Cleveland Indians	The Acute Angles of Anaheim	Seattle Marines	Boston Red Sox – 3
Loser (2-3)	Houston Astros	Toronto Canucks	Boston Red Sox	Houston Astros – 2

NLCS

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner	Washington Nationals	Colorado Silver Bullets	Washington Nationals	San Francisco Giants – 4
Loser	Chicago Cubs	New York Muttz	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers – 3

ALCS

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner	Cleveland Indians	Kansas City Monarchs	Seattle Mariners	New York Yankees – 4
Loser	Boston Red Sox	The Acute Angles of Anaheim	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox – 2

Who will celebrate in October in 2017? (Brian Cassella/ Chicago Tribune)

World Series

	Derek	Jesse	John	Bernie
Winner	Washington Nationals – 4	Colorado Silver Bullets – 4	Seattle Mariners – 4	New York Yankees – 4
Loser	Boston Red Sox – 3	Kansas City Monarchs – 2	Washington Nationals – 2	San Francisco Giants – 3

Time will tell if any of our predictions are correct. This is our fourth year doing this and we still are horrible at making predictions. So don’t blame us if we are wrong, we warned you. Just remember, baseball makes it better.

DJ, JJ, JB, and BL

March 25, 2017

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 3.0

Before predicting what will happen during the 2017 Major League season, let’s take a look back at The Winning Run’s predictions for the 2016 season. Once again we did a terrible job of guessing the final standings and playoffs. We are terrible at predictions, but we are consistent at our terribleness. So without further ado, a look back at our sad attempt at predicting the 2016 Major League season.

National League East

	Prediction	Reality
1	New York Mets	Washington Nationals
2	Washington Nationals	New York Mets
3	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins
4	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies
5	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves

The death of Jose Fernandez was a shocking reminder that baseball is just a game. (Rob Foldy/Getty Images)

National League Central

	Prediction	Reality
1	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	St. Louis Cardinals
3	St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates
4	Cincinnati Reds	Milwaukee Brewers
5	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds

National League West

	Prediction	Reality
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers
2	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants
3	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies
4	San Diego Padres	Arizona Diamondbacks
5	Colorado Rockies	San Diego Padres

American League East

	Prediction	Reality
1	Toronto Blue Jays	Boston Red Sox
2	New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles
3	Boston Red Sox	Toronto Blue Jays
4	Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees
5	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays

American League Central

	Prediction	Reality
1	Kansas City Royals	Cleveland Indians
2	Cleveland Indians	Detroit Tigers
3	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals
4	Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox
5	Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins

In 2016, not every team could take a punch from the competition. (AP Photo/CSM/Albert Pena)

American League West

	Prediction	Reality
1	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers
2	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	Seattle Mariners
3	Texas Rangers	Houston Astros
4	Seattle Mariners	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5	Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics

Playoffs

Wild Card

American League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Cleveland Indians	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	Toronto Blue Jays	Baltimore Orioles

National League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Pittsburgh Pirates	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	New York Mets

Francisco Lindor and the Indians came so close to a World Series Championship, but Cleveland will have to wait at least one more season. (Jason Miller/ Getty Images)

Divisional Series

American League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays	Cleveland Indians	Toronto Blue Jays	Texas Rangers
Houston Astros	Kansas City Royals	Cleveland Indians	Boston Red Sox

National League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago Cubs	San Francisco Giants
New York Mets	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	Washington Nationals

Championship Series

American League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros	Cleveland Indians	Toronto Blue Jays

National League

Predicted Winner	Predicted Loser	Actual Winner	Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs	New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series

Games Won	Prediction	Games Won	Actual
4 Games	Houston Astros	4 Games	Chicago Cubs
2 Games	Chicago Cubs	3 Games	Cleveland Indians

We did not get much right, but we did correctly predict six teams in their final standings, five playoff teams, and two Divisional Series Winners, and the National League Championship winner. Our predictions were not as accurate as in the 2015 final standings, but we found greater success in the playoffs. The playoffs are where it really matters, right?

The Cubs are World Series Champions. (Ezra Shaw/ Getty Images)

Predicting the final standings for the regular season is not an easy task. Our predictions in 2015 (11 of 30 correct) were much higher than our average, so it came as no surprise that in 2016 our predictions fell back to earth. We were correct that the Miami Marlins would finish third in the National League East, ahead of the rebuilding Braves and Phillies but well behind the Nationals and Mets. The Cubs were the easy pick to win the National League Central, far outpacing the rest of the division.The National League West was a two team race from the beginning, but we were correct that the Dodgers would out last the Giants over the course of the season. Finally we were correct in predicting the American League East would leave the Rays behind and the American League West would leave the Athletics behind as both teams finished last in their division.

Our predictions in the playoffs were much better in 2016. There are ten playoff spots, we selected half the teams before the season began. The Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants all made the playoffs, but despite having half the teams in the playoffs correct, we did not do a great job of predicting what they would do once they made it to October. We were correct in predicting the Toronto Blue Jays would win the American League Divisional Series. We correctly predicted the Chicago Cubs would win the National League pennant, although we felt they were not yet ready to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Opps.

The 2016 Major League season was not what we predicted it would be; it was better. No matter how careful we are in making our predictions, we will be wrong more often than we are right; such is baseball. Every season has its memories, for the Cubs it was finally winning the World Series after waiting more than a century. The Reds, Braves, Twins, Athletics, and other continued to rebuild. Every team is trying to get better, but not matter what baseball is unpredictable. We hope we are better at predicting the 2017 season than we were the 2016 season. However, there are only three guarantees that we can make: 1) baseball is unpredictable, 2) our predictions will turn out to be horribly wrong, 3) baseball makes everything better.

DJ, JJ, JB, and BL

March 19, 2017

The Green Fields of the Mind

Baseball has the same romance, drama, and finality as life. There is no preselected destination; an at bat, a game, a season, a career can turn on a single pitch. Life can turn on a small, seemingly inconsequential decision. Future Baseball Commissioner Bart Giamatti’s The Green Fields of the Mind eloquently recalls the end of the 1977 Boston Red Sox’s season and the intersection of life and baseball.

“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart.”

Giamatti ropes you in from the beginning, forcefully reminding you that for all the love we have for baseball, the game itself is fleeting. The once youthful rookie is now the wily veteran. The games slip by day after day, each meaning so much, yet many are forgotten before the season ends. The season begins when the world is coming alive and ends when the natural world around us is starting to ready itself from the forthcoming winter. The sudden end of the baseball season, for every team, is dramatic. There is no clock to countdown but, as the leaves change and the cooler temperatures settle in, baseball fans know their time is running short.

The grass is always green at Fenway Park. (The Winning Run)

The cold of winter compounds the sadness and the void left by the end of the baseball season. Coats and scarves appear in an effort to conserve the spirit of the waning, warm sunshine. Baseball demands an outdoor space with the horizon for a backdrop. It cannot be appreciated like a wintry landscape from the warm comfort behind a window to watch the snow fall. Winter weather traps people inside, unable to find the space and comfort required to play the game. The sudden end of summer shocks the system and the dwindling daylight slows our daily routines to a crawl.

Bart Giamatti understood the love of baseball is tied to the love shown in rooting for your team, not in rooting against your opponent. No matter the ferocity of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry, Boston wants to win more than it wants to see New York lose. Love is the driving force in baseball and in life. We all continually search for the joy of victory while knowing the sting of defeat will last longer and cut deeper. The highs are few and the lows are many, but the love of the game is the one constant that brings us all back every spring and breaks our hearts every winter.

The Green Fields of the Mind is among the greatest pieces of baseball literature. Forty years have passed since a cold, rainy day in Boston inspired Giamatti to write. The forty summers of Giamatti’s life and the forty summers since have continued the thrill and pain the moment the baseball season ends. Red Sox fans know the season has ended when Joe Castiglione begins to recite Giamatti’s words. The love, passion, fragility, and fleeting nature of baseball is what makes the game great as season after season fans return back to their radios, TVs, and ball parks. For forty seasons baseball loved and tortured Bart Giamatti. The 2017 season will mark forty seasons since that love and despair inspired a man to write what all baseball fans knows in their heart. The game on the field slowly begins in the Spring and suddenly stops in the Fall, but in our minds the season lasts forever.