The beauty of baseball is its unpredictability. Any player in any game can achieve the impossible. Teams can also surprise. Regardless how knowledgeable you are about the game, even experts are not always able to predict baseball.
Ozzie Smith was never a power hitter, he hit 28 home runs in 19 seasons. No one predicted Smith would hit the game winning home run in Game 5 of the 1985 National League Championship series. Jack Buck’s memorable call of “Go Crazy Folks” sealed the home run in baseball history. Smith did not hit another home run until May 31, 1988. Unpredictable.
Phillip Humber’s 16-23 record and 5.31 ERA are unremarkable, yet on April 21, 2012 he was perfect. Perfect Games are unpredictable, but Humber’s was almost impossible. Ineffectiveness after perfection forced Humber out of the Majors in 2013.
Prior to each season experts, and The Winning Run, predict which teams will make the Postseason and win the World Series. This season 18 of MLB Radio’s experts made predictions. As expected some were right and some wildly wrong. However, their mixed prediction results have a glaring hole in one particular Division.
Some predictions are easy, some are not. (MLB Radio)
The experts loved the Yankees, good call, and the Red Sox, not so much, in the American League East. New York has won the Division, but once again Tampa and their 92 wins got no love. Tampa’s low budget machine produced another winning teams while Fenway’s big budget will sit at home in October. The American League Central was predictably a two team race between Cleveland and Minnesota. The rest of the Central will finish at least 25 games back, the experts picked the wrong team as the Twins lead the Indians by four games. They knew the contenders, but picked them in the wrong order. The American League West was easy, 18 of 18 picked the Astros. Good Call.
The National League Central was a toss up between the Brewers, 2 of 18 experts, Cardinals, 5 of 18, and Cubs, 11 of 18. These teams have battled all season with the Cardinals taking control as Milwaukee continues fights on without Christian Yelich and the Cubs fade away. 10 of 18 picked the Dodgers in the National League West. Oddly the other eight picked the Rockies, who are heading for a last place finish. Ouch.
The shocking ineptitude of the experts is the National League East. All 18 experts whiffed on the Division, as none predicted the reigning Division champion Braves would repeat. The Marlins predictably struggled, leaving just four teams. The favorite in the East was the Nationals. A rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin should deliver a Division title. The Phillies added Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. This firepower in the Philadelphia lineup should have made them at least competitive. The rebuilding Mets got one vote from Rob Bender. No love for Atlanta.
Ronald Acuña has emerged as a potential superstar in Atlanta. (FOX Sports Florida)
The Braves did not lose or add a superstar, they tinkered. Atlanta’s biggest move was signing Josh Donaldson for one year. A full season from Ronald Acuña also helped. Predicting baseball is hard, but one would think at least one expert would believe in the defending Division champions. The team steadily improved before winning the East by 8 games over Washington. The Nationals can win 90 games and look poised to return to October as a Wild Card.
Ultimately teams simply want to make the Postseason. Every team has a chance to reign supreme in October baseball. Winning the Division as easily as Atlanta has in 2019 should give experts pause about their predictions in the future. Teams can have surprisingly good seasons, but Atlanta simply improved on their 2018 season. Baseball is unpredictable, but give credit where credit is due. The experts did not believe the Braves were real in 2018 and predicted their demise in 2019. Experts may understand the game better than most, but baseball always follows its own unpredictable path. This is what makes it the greatest game.
Rap is not the usual music genre for baseball songs. Teams may create a music video for the upcoming season, postseason, or a particular player. College teams are known to lip sync from time to time, looking at you 2012 Harvard baseball team. However, it is rarely a rap song. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis changed this with My Oh My. The song was written in response to longtime Seattle Mariners radio broadcaster Dave Niehaus’ sudden death in November 2010. It is the best baseball song of the last decade.
My Oh My is not reserved just for Mariner fans, however to fully appreciate the song you must understand what Dave Niehaus meant to the Pacific Northwest. He was the Mariners broadcaster since their inception in 1971. He broadcast more than 5,000 games, missing roughly 100 games in 40 years. Niehaus was the voice of baseball for Mariners fans.
Baseball had a tough beginning in Seattle. The Pilots lasted only one losing season, 1969, before moving to Milwaukee. The Mariners, and their fans, suffered through 14 consecutive losing seasons. They did not make the postseason until the fabled 1995 season, their 19th. There was little excitement on the diamond, yet the fans tuned in their radios to listen to Dave Niehaus.
Dave Niehaus was the voice of baseball in the Pacific Northwest. My Oh My was a loss.(John Lok/ The Seattle Times)
Mariners fans were rewarded by listening to Niehaus call the golden age of Mariners baseball. From 1995 through 2001, the Mariners made the postseason four times, reaching the American League Championship Series three times. The excitement inside the Kingdome moved to Safeco Field, now T-Mobile Park, on July 15, 1999 with Dave Niehaus throwing out the first pitch. The following summer, Niehaus became the second member of the Mariners Hall of Fame, after former first baseman Alvin Davis. In 2008, Niehaus received the highest award in baseball broadcasting, the Ford C. Frick Award, and was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Niehaus was more than a broadcaster. The 2011 season was the teams first without him in the booth. The team honored Niehaus with a performance of My Oh My on Opening Day.
My Oh My was released six weeks after Dave Niehaus’ death as a bonus track on Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ album The Heist. Macklemore begins by recounting the winning run of the 1995 American League Divisional Series against the Yankees. The voice of God on the radio calling the game as Edgar Martinez drives in Joey Cora tying the game and Ken Griffey Jr. is waved home to win the game. The pace of the song quickens along with your pulse for the play at the plate.
Wisely, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis step back while Dave Niehaus makes the call during an interlude. Artists recognize the talents of other great artists. Niehaus paints the picture of the play at the plate and how it felt inside the Kingdome and across the Pacific Northwest.
The second verse zooms out to examine baseball memories from childhood. Macklemore discusses learning to play baseball, spitting sunflower seeds, playing under the sun, and his Dad teaching him the beauty of the game. He layers in childhood favorites of Big League Chew, recreating The Sandlot, and begging his Mom for one more inning before bed. Recalling childhood memories quicken the pace of the song, like an excited child talking faster and faster.
Macklemore rounds out My Oh My with a final verse connecting baseball and real life. The third verse begins at a frantic pace. The same feeling Mariner fans had as Griffey rounded third. Life feels as though it’s moving faster than we can grasp it. There is a touch of anger underpinning the understanding that life will give you bad hops and you must be ready for them. The lessons of baseball stay with you as an adult. Life is a trip around the bases, success comes by putting your head down and running as hard as you can. The verse slows as it approaches the end and finishes with a trombone playing a mournful farewell…almost a baseball version of Taps.
Macklemore’s description of Dave Niehaus’ call and how baseball makes him feel could be anyone, not just a kid from Seattle. Every baseball fan knows the thrill of following the winning run racing home. My Oh My takes baseball fans back to their childhoods and the joys of baseball and the lessons it teaches.
The song is also a reflection of becoming an adult and losing your childhood heroes. Baseball is a child’s game played by adults, yet those adults are not invincible. Every kid eventually deals with the loss of a hero. Despite never meeting the person, it has a profound impact on their life. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are spot on with My Oh My and the music video. The video is simple, just baseball pictures, equipment, jerseys, old stadiums, and replays of past moments. No wonder people in Seattle had to pull over to collect themselves when they heard My Oh My for the first time.
Last year we ranked the best pitcher bat flips of recent memory using our proprietary Joey Bats Scale. So what did our promotion of the this glorious celebration of triumph get us in the 2018 season? Nothing. We saw one aggressive bat drop from Clayton Richard and an off-camera BP bat flip from Chris Sale. Shohei Ohtani doesn’t flip bats and none of the other 17 pitchers to hit a dinger in 2018 blessed us with an addition to the Joey Bats Scale.
While there were no bat flips, I did watch every dinger hit by a pitcher in 2018, so in a completely arbitrary order, here are some of my favorites.
Steven Matz Homer With No Witnesses
I’m convinced the few people in the crowd got lost in Willets Point and wandered into Citi Field to ask for directions to Flushing Meadows Park. There is no conceivable reason anyone would subject themselves to a Mets-Marlins game in September 2018. But props to Steven Matz and the Mets for fully enjoying the moment.
Reds’ Pitchers Hitting Grand Slams
Not one but two Reds’ pitchers hit grand slams in 2018, Michael Lorenzen and Anthony DeSclafani. More impressively, Lorenzen’s grand slam came on a pinch-hit and was his 3rd (and final) dinger of the season.
A.J. Cole Does His Best Big Sexy Impression
A.J. Cole hit his first career home run last season, but that’s not what’s impressive. What matters here is that he took 30 seconds to round the bases, turning in the longest home run trot by a pitcher since Big Sexy in 2016.
German Marquez Hits a Dinger Off a Second Baseman
I am all for the recent trend of position players pitching more often in blow out games if it leads to more moments like this.
Let’s hope the DH never comes to the NL. Pitcher homers are fun, bat flips are better, and it is great to see pitchers celebrate these rare moments. Let’s hope the 2019 season brings us more pitcher home runs and more bat flips.
Here we go into a new season where anything can happen. We had a lackluster off-season with a sputtering hot stove that saw some record-breaking contracts but weeks of “Will he or won’t he” that belongs on the Lifetime Channel rather than the MLB news wire. Teams seem willing to bet big on prospects but undervalue proven commodities. This is the same spirit we’re taking when we peer into our cracked crystal ball to make predictions about the 2019 season. We’re going to switch things up starting with the American League and Bernie is going to report on why they will or won’t do what we think they’ll do.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|AL East||Yankees||Rojo Sox (yeah I said it)||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees|
|Red Sox*||Bandwagoners*||Red Sux*||Red Sox*||Tea Partiers*||Red Sox|
|Blue Jays||Devil Rays||Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Pajaritos||Blue Jays|
|Orioles||Cal Ripkens||hOribles||Crush Davis Express||Blue Jays||Orioles|
New York Yankees
One hundred wins last season and they end up a Wild Card. They blasted more home runs in a season than any team before. The rotation didn’t quite hold up and the bats went a bit cold in the Postseason. They shored up their pitching rotation in the off-season by trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. Masahiro Tanaka may have developed a pitch that could keep him from getting blown up every five games. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar had a season in the Bronx to settle in and help recreate a new Murderers’ Row.
Giancarlo Stanton will be flipping his bat and trotting around the bases plenty in 2019. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Boston Red Sox
They’re the reigning champs and they did it with a collective play that didn’t focus on one player’s excellence. Mookie Betts may be the most athletically gifted player in the Majors and Chris Sale wouldn’t surprise anyone if he makes another case to win the Cy Young. Craig Kimbrel hanging out in free agency does not help shorten games. We have to give the defending champs their due but they also didn’t do much in the off-season. Resting on your laurels while everyone else is re-configuring to beat the champs may not be the most sound strategy.
Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell threw the kind of fire that could have started the California wildfires last year. The Rays got him to bite on a 5 year, $50 million contract with a $3 million signing bonus. While it’s a big jump for him, it’s not elite ace money. The Rays are trying to win on a budget but that only works when you’ve got an analytical or strategic edge over your competition. You can’t Moneyball when everyone else is reading the statistics the same way. Then again, they probably would run away with the AL Central…
Toronto Blue Jays
There have been a lot of near misses with the Blue Jays’ recent signings. Randal Grichuk, Ken Giles, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz…these are all (or were) solid role players to support a more elite group of players. *cough*Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*cough*
Mark Trumbo’s knee is looking better. Crush Davis is still their best option a first base? No left-handed pitching? Is Trey Mancini the only glimmer of hope on this roster? What happens is Jonathan Villar stays healthy and hits?
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|White Sox||Tigers||Sox||ChiSox||White Sox||White Sox|
The firing of Paul Molitor shows the Twins front office is getting impatient for wins. Rocco Baldelli coached the Rays for a few seasons so he knows how to work with a budget and talent, however Molitor was really the best sort of balance between analytics and gut feeling for the game. Derek and I saw Miguel Sano hit a laser in Detroit during BP that rocked the brick wall beyond the centerfield fence. We agree it would have carried over 500 ft. Perhaps Nelson Cruz can help guide Sano towards his All Star potential. Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop, and Ronald Torreyes are solid pick ups to shore up the infield that’s covered by a great outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario. They’ve got the talent to compete but only in their division.
Will Miguel Sano become the star Minnesota is hoping for? (Bruce Kluckhohn-Associated Press)
Cleveland’s lineup is looking a bit battered but they truly do their damage through hustle and pitching. Well, the hustle seems to be worn out. What’s worse is the arms seem to have cooled. A few years ago facing Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Trevor Bauer would have seemed like swinging at ghosts. Now it seems that the only trouble with the rotation is staying alert enough to make contact. There’s still a deep well of talent here, it’s just worn down and needs a refresh.
Chicago White Sox
Eloy Jimenez is not the second coming but that’s because the White Sox’ front office had thought that about Yoan Moncada. Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, and Ivan Nova make up a serviceable rotation but let’s be honest, the ChiSox are only getting third because of their divisional competition.
The Tigers are pretty much the White Sox without the prospects.
Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy has a shoulder impingement in his throwing shoulder. Salvador Perez is out, getting Tommy John surgery…as a catcher. I have more faith in Bartolo Colon being able to pitch through 9 innings than this team to win more than 50 games.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|AL West||Astros||Colt .45’s||Stros||Astros||Athletics||Astros|
|Mariners||Walker Texas Rangers||Mariners||Seattle||Mariners||Mariners|
These guys are a team of superstars that play like a team. Justin Verlander, George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman deliver on such a regular basis that support from guys like Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick coming into a hot streak is just overwhelming for most teams. There’s a certain level of excellence that you have to bring to beat these guys. Few teams have it and fewer can do it as consistently.
This is a team that makes you go “Who is that?” and they consistently outperform the expectations of the “experts”. Just bear in mind that the A’s outperformed Houston in OPS, BA, and HRs last season. Sean Manaea threw a no-no last season and he’s leading a rotation that doesn’t have the same regression potential that Houston has.
Los Angeles Angels
Shohei Ohtani isn’t throwing this season. Mike Trout signed a landmark contract that’s prompting players to question the utility of free agency (but really, without Bryce Harper and Manny Machado doing what they did, Trout wouldn’t have gotten his deal). This is team that’s signaling that they want to win but really not showing people that they know how to win. They may end up like the Yankees of the early 2000’s with enormous salaries, big names, cracked lumber…but no hardware to show for it.
Mike Trout got paid, but can the Angels ever put together a winning team? (FTW-USA TODAY Sports)
The Mariners are a lot like a superb AAA with some hot prospects just waiting for a call up. It’s not a rotation but a one-two punch in Marco Gonzalez and Yusei Kikuchi and I wouldn’t want to go into a boxing match with that combo. King Felix might have a few good games in him this season but that’s not a lot to float by on. The high point of their season is already over, Ichiro played in Japan and then retired.
This is a team full of redemption stories in the making. I’m not holding my breath. New stadium for 2020 might be the most exciting off-season move.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|Phillies*||Bravos*||Harpers*||Marlins* (yeah Jeets!)||Braves*||Braves|
|Marlins||Fish||Minor Lg Team||Mets||Marlins||Marlins|
The Phillies picked up some good talent in Andrew McCutchen who had a bit of a refresh by the Bay and in the Bronx, Jean Segura who’s production and defense are constantly overlooked, and J.T. Realmuto, who’s on-base and slugging continue tracking better every year in the majors. We also saw Aaron Nola turn the corner and take over the mound like an elite ace. Jake Arrieta may not find the stride he had in Chicago but an improved lineup may make his job easier and bolster his confidence to hold things down. Let’s not forget that they also picked up a certain free agent that could amplify all of those previous moves by a huge leap – Bryce Harper.
Bryce Harper moved to Philadelphia, can he win in October? (Drew Hallowell/ Getty Images)
The Braves sort of caught lightning in a bottle with the emergence of young prospects in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. The signing of Josh Donaldson blocks Johan Camargo from the everyday lineup and puts him into a super utility role. When a young star like Freddie Freeman is one of your elder statesmen and you win the division, there’s a lot to like about this team. But the Braves probably had the largest range of predictions among The Winning Run’s team with first and fourth place finishes.
There’s a lot of killer talent on this team. They might actually be better without Bryce Harper in their outfield. But just like the city they play for, there are a lot of management and clubhouse synergy issues to overcome.
New York Mets
Speaking of management issues…there is still an enviable amount of pitching talent in Queens. The Mets need to stop trying to be the Yankees and embrace the chaos and circus of the New York sports media. Less bro, more fun would go a long way into turning this team into winners. Oh and either fire the entire medical staff or protect their positions and salaries from the front office. Either way, there are too many injuries for this to be anything but incompetence or interference, neither is good.
The Marlins will not do what the Phillies did last year. Kevin’s just doubling down because when it doesn’t work out, he can brush it off as a joke. Derek Jeter may be on track to becoming to baseball ownership/front office management what Michael Jordan has been to basketball.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|NL Central||Cardinals||Cards||Brewers||Brew Crew||Cardinals||Cardinals|
|Reds||Better Dead than Red||Cubs||Cubbies||Cubs||Reds|
St. Louis Cardinals
I feel like a broken record. This team just reloads. Unlike last year, I think they won the off-season by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. They have great players in the rest of their positions or a deep bench to platoon. Yadier Molina is a cyborg because getting into that crouch in your late 30’s is just crazy, or I’m just jealous. Hopefully Molina is wearing a bulletproof cup this year. Regardless, the Cardinals seem to have a range and depth that provides them an edge over the regressing Cubs and volatile Brewers teams.
There’s a lot of hitting potential on this team and they will probably be in the top 5 for HRs by the end of the season. The Brewers outperformed expectations on pitching last year but I think it can be done again. Corey Knebel being hurt is manageable since the bullpen seems infinitely interchangeable.
Yu Darvish was a bust last year. Maybe he’ll turn it around this year. Jon Lester is a #2 guy who’s turning into a #3. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana are all a step away from brilliance but it is a risky bet that this is the season they take that step. They’re dangerous on the other side of the ball but something isn’t gelling for them and it’s not likely to fix itself this year.
Yasiel Puig brings his energy to the Reds, can he bring more wins? (Kareem Elgazzar/ Cincinnati.com)
While Yasiel Puig brings a whole lot of fun energy to southwest Ohio, the bigger story is the pitching rotation. Sonny Gray has mean stuff but the lights in New York were too bright. Alex Wood is an underrated pitcher who keeps his lineups in the game with a 3.29 ERA over six seasons. Puig bringing extra run support could mean good things by the Ohio River.
The NL Central may be the polar opposite of the AL Central in competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean Pittsburgh is fielding a team that’s contributing to that image.
|Derek||Jesse||John||Kevin||Bernie||The Winning Run|
|NL West||Dodgers||Coors||Dem Bums||Dodgers||Rockies||Dodgers|
|Rockies*||The Choking Kershaws*||Rockies||Rockies||Dodgers||Rockies|
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won the division every season since 2013. It doesn’t seem likely to change but they didn’t do a lot in the off-season. The biggest move was to sign A.J. Pollock to a five-year deal to replace Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Much like the Red Sox, this doesn’t portend well. However, it’s hard to argue that the rest of the NL West made the sort of moves that would make them legitimate challengers to that crown.
Nolan Arenado got a big contract and remains one of the most exciting players in the Majors. The departure of DJ LeMahieu was softened by signing Daniel Murphy. So they have the firepower to run up scores on their opponents, but playing in Denver is simply a difficult balance for pitching. Jon Gray seems to be one of the few pitchers that’s unfazed pitching at home or away from that elevation. It’s just hard to develop a rotation and bullpen around that. Especially when you let a guy like Adam Ottavino go to the Yankees.
San Diego Padres
Seriously? How did this happen? Oh yeah, the Diamondbacks sold the house. Hey look Manny Machado.
How long until the Padres are relevant again? Ralph (Freso/ Getty Images)
They sold the house. Zack Greinke cannot be happy that his departure from the Dodgers has left him with the team he has now. Goldschmidt is in St. Louis and Steven Souza Jr. went down with a terrible knee injury and is gone for the season. Can Jake Lamb stay healthy and will Adam Jones find a new home in the desert. They have a good rotation so if the hitting is good, they’re a dangerous team to play spoiler.
San Francisco Giants
How the mighty have fallen. Let’s not forget that the Giants have won three of the last ten World Series titles. But really, that’s all that’s going for them right now. One last trip around the Majors for Bruce Bochy.
|AL Wild Card||Red Sox||Bandwagoners||Red Sux||Red Sux||Tea Partiers||Red Sox|
|NL Wild Card||Phillies||Bravos||Cards||Cardinals||Brewers||Rockies|
|Rockies||The Choking Kershaws||Phillies||Marlins||Braves||Brewers|
|ALDS 1-4||Red Sox||Rojo Sox||Yankees||Astros||Yankees||Yankees|
|Astros||White Elephants||Red Sux||Red Sux||Tea Partiers||Red Sox|
|ALDS 2-3||Yankees||Colt .45’s||Astros||Yankees||Athletics||Astros|
|Red Sox||Colt .45’s||Astros||Astros||Athletics||Astros|
|World Series||Red Sox||Coors||Dodgers||Brewers||Yankees||Cardinals|
Sorry CC Sabathia it is not looking good for you to end your career with a World Series victory. This one’s for you CC. (Kim Klement- USA TODAY Sports)
Our apologies to the New York Yankees because our prediction means they’re probably not going to win this year. We have been wrong the last five years, why change now.
BL with DJ, JJ, JB, & KB
Spring Training marks the return of green grass, warm sunshine, and the crack of the bat. Before focusing on the 2019 season, let us reflect upon our disastrous predictions for the 2018 season. We continued our time honored tradition of failing miserably to predict the future. If we are good at anything it is making consistently terrible predictions. Below was our inept attempt at predicting the 2018 Major League season.
|American League||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
|East||Yankees||Red Sox||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Red Sox|
|Red Sox||Yankees||Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Red Sox||Red Sox||Yankees|
|Blue Jays||Blue Jays||Orioles||Red Sox||Orioles||Blue Jays||Rays|
|Orioles||Orioles||Red Sox||Orioles||Blue Jays||Orioles||Blue Jays|
|Royals||White Sox||White Sox||Royals||Royals||White Sox||Tigers|
|White Sox||Royals||Tigers||Tigers||White Sox||Royals||White Sox|
|National League||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
We are awful at predicting the future. Consistency is critical for an individual or team to find success in baseball. We are consistently awful at making predictions.
A division by division breakdown shows how terrible we were in a Regular Season. Each division had a possible 30 correct predictions; five per person plus five from our aggregate votes as The Winning Run. The Yankees have the most loyal fans (John, Bernie, and Kevin), so one would expect we would successfully predict the American League East. Instead the American League East was our worst division with just three correct predictions. The American League Central was better, in part because of the clear hierarchy of teams. We managed 11 correct predictions. The American League West was our best division in the Junior Circuit with 13 correct predictions. Overall we made 27 correct predictions out of 90 in the American League, a 30% success rate.
We found more success in the Senior Circuit. Derek and Jesse are both die hard Braves fans, plus Atlanta is John’s backup team. Once again the expectation of successful predictions tied to fandom did not come true. We managed nine correct predictions, not great but not horrible. The Central was the toughest in the National League with only four correct predictions. The National League West was our best division in 2018. We made 17 correct predictions (56%), our only division above 50% predicted. We made 30 correct picks in the National League, three more than the American League. Across the regular season we made 57 correct predictions out of 180, 31.66%. A .316 Batting Average is a solid season.
Khris Davis and his perpetual .247 Batting Average led the Athletics back to October. (Nhat V. Meyer/ Bay Area News Group)
A scoring system was necessary to determine who made the best predictions. Regular Season scoring was straight forward, one point for each correct prediction. First up is Derek who managed seven points in the American League; two in the East and Central, and three from the West. He received five points from the National League; one from the East and Central, and three from the West. Derek picked four division winners, including every American League division winner. He tied with a Regular Season best 12 points.
Jesse did not enjoy predicting the American League. He received just two points; one from the Central and West. He completely missed the East. He found better success in the National League with six points; three from the East, two from the Central, and one from the West. He picked three division winners, two American League and one National League. He scored eight points.
John had a mixed bag with his predictions. He scored just four points in the American League; two from the Central and West. Surprisingly he whiffed on the East and his beloved Yankees. The National League was kinder, as he scored seven points. John scored two points from the East and whiffed again on the Central. However, he produced our only perfect division from the West. John picked three division winners, scoring a total of 11 points.
Christian Yelich sparked the Brewers to a surprising National League Central Division Crown. (Dylan Buell/ Getty Images)
Bernie struggled in the Regular Season. He scored just four points in the American League; one in the East and Central, and two in the West. He did not improve in the National League scoring only two points. He whiffed on both the East and Central, scoring only in the basement of the West. He picked only one division winner. Bernie had the worst regular season with a meager six points.
Kevin followed in John and Bernie’s footsteps by striking out on two divisions. In the American League Kevin scored four points; two from the Central and West. Another one of our die hard Yankee fans struck out on the East. Kevin was equally woeful in the Senior Circuit, scoring just four points; one from the East, swinging and missing in the Central, and three from the West. Despite his struggles, Kevin did predict three division winners on his way to eight points.
Combining our predictions we created The Winning Run’s official predictions. We scored six points in the American League despite our Yankee fans striking out in the East. We scored three points in the Central and West. In the National League we also scored six points; two in the East, one in the Central, and three in the West. We picked three division winners to equal the best Regular Season with 12 points.
|Postseason||The Winning Run||Derek||Jesse||John||Bernie||Kevin||Actual|
|AL Wild Card||Angels||Yankees||Royals||Twins||Red Sox||Red Sox||Yankees|
|Red Sox||Angels||Blue Jays||Angels||Indians||Twins||Athletics|
|NL Wild Card||Brewers||Rockies||Cubs||Rockies||Dodgers||Diamondbacks||Cubs|
|ALDS||Astros||Indians||Indians||Astros||Astros||Red Sox||Red Sox|
|World Series||Yankees||Nationals||Astros||Yankees||Yankees||Yankees||Red Sox|
In October everyone could run up the score. Scoring in the Postseason was: two points for predicting the Wild Card Game, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series.
The Postseason is where legends are born and hot streaks go to die. There were 108 possible correct predictions, we made 32 correct picks, 29.62% We made two correct predictions in the Wild Card games. In the Divisional round, we made eight correct picks in the National League and 11 in the American League. In the Championship Series we made seven correct picks; four in the National League and three in the American League. In the World Series we made four correct predictions.
The Postseason separated the champions from the wannabes. A perfect October score is 104 points. No one is perfect. Derek made the worst Postseason predictions. He knew the Yankees would win the Wild Card game. He was correct the Astros would win and the Yankees would lose the Divisional Series. His predictions ended when the Dodgers won and the Rockies lost the Divisional Series. Derek made five correct Postseason predictions for only 18 points.
Justin Turner and the Dodgers could not finish their run through October to a World Series Championship. (Robert Gauthier/ Los Angeles Times)
Jesse fared better in October. He predicted the Cubs would win the National League Wild Card game. In the Divisional Series he had the Dodgers and Astros winning and the Yankees losing. His scoring continued with the Dodgers winning in the Championship Series and losing in the World Series. Jesse made six correct predictions for 38 points.
John did well in the early in October before falling apart. He predicted the Astros and Dodgers winning and the Indians and Rockies losing in the Division Series. Beyond the Division Series, John only predicted the Astros losing the Championship Series. He made five correct predictions for 24 points.
Bernie found his stride in October. He was on the money with the Astros winning the Division Series before losing the Championship Series. He predicted the Dodgers winning the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. Bernie made five correct Postseason predictions for of 40 points.
Kevin also hopped on the Dodgers train in October. He predicted the Red Sox winning and Cleveland losing the Division Series. Then it was all Dodgers. He knew the Dodgers would win the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. Kevin made five correct predictions for of 36 points.
The Winning Run’s predictions were successful thanks primarily to the Astros and Dodgers. We knew the Indians would lose the Division Series. Houston predicatively won the Division Series and lost the Championship Series. The Dodgers won the Division and Championship Series before losing the World Series. The Winning Run made six correct Postseason predictions for an October best 44 points.
Mookie Betts and the Red Sox celebrated another World Series victory. (www.CBSSports.com)
The baseball season is an arduous journey with many highs and lows. Champions are successful in the Regular Season and Postseason because they find a way to win. The final standings for The Winning Runs Predictions That Did Go Wrong 5.0. In last place, with a meager 30 points, Derek. He choked in the Postseason despite tying for a Regular Season high 12 points. A horrendous October left him wondering what could have been. In fifth place with 35 points, John. His solid Regular Season, 11 points, could not overcome a pedestrian Postseason. In fourth place, Kevin with 44 points. A weak Regular Season left too few options for the Postseason. He made the most of his October, but it was not enough. Tying for second place with 46 points, Jesse and Bernie. Jesse struggled in the Regular Season with just eight points. Riding the Dodgers deep into October, Jesse to edge out Kevin by a mere two points. Bernie overcame a six point disastrous Regular Season. Against all odds, Bernie used the few teams he had in October to make a deep run to collect 40 points in the Postseason. Despite our individual efforts, no one was destined to wear the championship crown as The Winning Run Predictions That Did Go Wrong 5.0 champion. We tied Derek with 12 points for the best Regular Season before dominating the Postseason with 44 points for a total of 56 points.
The 2019 Major League season is just around the corner. We will once again attempt to predict the future. This time honored tradition continually shows we are great at predicting what will not happen. Someday we could predict the future, but I doubt it.
DJ, JJ, JB, BL, & KB
Valentine’s Day is about spending time with that special someone in your life. You express your love with gifts, flowers, candies, a nice meal, or simply spending time together. Winning builds love in baseball, it solves every team’s problems. Yankee owner George Steinbrenner hated losing, “Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next.” So what creates more love, winning, in baseball? WAR.
WAR, Wins Above Replacement, measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. The higher a player’s WAR the more they help the team.
The highest career WAR for any Major Leaguer born on Valentine’s Day belongs to Charles “Pretzels” Getzien. Born in Germany on February 14, 1864, Getzien played for five teams during his nine seasons in the National League. Nicknamed Pretzels for throwing a double curve ball, Getzien’s career 18.1 WAR far outpaces his closest competitor Arthur Irwin’s career 15.2 WAR. Even Candy LaChance’s career 11.1 WAR was no match for Getzien.
Charles “Pretzels” Getzien while with the Detroit Wolverines. (Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs)
Baseball in the 1880’s and early 1890’s was not the same game played today. Getzien, a starting pitcher, was expected to pitch every few days; teams did not use the modern five man rotation. Starters were expected to pitch the entire game; pitch counts did not matter. Bullpen matchups in high leverage situations were never a thought. In 1884, Getzien’s first season in the National League, it took six balls to walk a batter, not the modern four. There were other rule changes along the way.
1886 was Pretzels Getzien’s best season. He started 43 games for the Detroit Wolverines, pitching 42 Complete Games, and 1 Shutout. His 30-11 record included a 3.03 ERA and 1.223 WHIP. Getzien pitched 386.2 innings, allowing 388 Hits, 203 Runs, just 130 Earned Runs, 6 Home Runs, striking out 172, walking 85, and throwing 19 Wild Pitches. At the plate, he hit .176 in 165 At Bats, collecting 29 Hits, 3 Doubles, 3 Triples, 19 RBI, 3 Stolen Bases, scoring 14 Runs, 6 walks, 46 strikeouts, for an .205 On-Base Percentage, Slugging .230, and .435 OPS. Getzien’s 1886 season was the first of five consecutive seasons with at least 40 starts.
More rule changes occurred before the 1887 season. Batters could no longer call for high or low pitches. Five balls were required to walk a batter, not six. Striking out a batter required four strikes. Bats could have one flat side. While the rules changed Getzien’s success remained. He was the only Wolverine starter to make more than 24 starts, starting 42 with 41 Complete Games. Riding Getzien’s right arm, Detroit won the National League Pennant. They faced the American Association champion St. Louis Browns in the World Series. Pretzels Getzien went 4-2, throwing 6 Complete Games, 58 innings, with a 2.48 ERA and 1.310 WHIP. He allowed 61 Hits, 23 Runs, 16 Earned Runs, walked 15, and struck out 17. Getzien was a threat at the plate too. He hit .300 in 20 At Bats, collecting 6 hits, including 2 Doubles, 1 stolen base, scoring 5 Runs, 2 RBI, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts. He boasted a .391 On-Base Percentage, .400 Slugging, and .791 OPS. The Wolverines won the series 10 games to five.
The 1887 World Series Champions, Detroit Wolverines. (www.detroitathletic.com)
In 1888, Getzien started 46 games throwing 45 Complete Games. The Wolverines pitching staff also had Pete Conway, 45 starts, and Henry Gruber, 25 starts. Despite the team’s success Detroit owner Frederick Stearns disbanded the Wolverines after the season due to financial woes. Getzien joined the Indianapolis Hoosiers for the 1889 season. Prior to the season, the National League adopted the modern four balls for a walk and three strikes for a strikeout rule. Getzien started 44 games, throwing 36 Complete Games. After one season with the Hoosiers, Getzien spent 1890, his last great season, pitching for the Boston Beaneaters. He made 40 starts, throwing 39 Complete Games alongside future Hall of Famers Kid Nichols and John Clarkson. Nichols, a rookie, threw a Complete Game in all 47 of his starts. Clarkson made 44 starts with 43 Complete Games. Getzien’s pitching career began to decline after 1890.
Getzien started nine games for Boston in 1891 before he was released. He would sign with the Cleveland Spiders and pitch just one game. Getzien finished his career with the St. Louis Browns in 1892. It was the only season of his career where batters were forced to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely; bats could no longer have a flat side.
In 1893, Getzien’s first season out of professional baseball, saw the pitching distance moved from 50 feet to 60 feet, 6 inches. The rules governing baseball in the 1800’s shed light on the games’ differences in its infancy and today. In 1901, almost a decade after Pretzels Getzien last pitched, the National League would count foul balls as strikes. Previously if a batter fouled off seven consecutive pitches to begin an at bat the count remained no balls and no strikes. Striking out a batter required a swing and miss or a called strike.
Pretzels Getzien as a member of the Detroit Wolverines in 1888. (Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs)
Getzien compiled a career record of 145-139, 1 Save, 3.46 ERA, and 1.288 WHIP. He started 296 games, throwing 277 Complete Games, and 11 shutouts. In 2,539.2 innings, Getzien allowed 2,670 hits, 1,555 runs, 976 Earned Runs, struck out 1,070, walked 602, hit 28 batters, and threw 111 Wild Pitches. He is the all-time leader in Wins, Loses, Complete Games, Shutouts, Innings Pitched, Hits Allowed, Runs, Earned Runs, Wild Pitches, and Batters Faced for German born Major Leaguers. Getzien led the National League in Home Runs allowed in 1887 and 1889, with 24 and 27 respectively. In an era of few home runs Getzien allowed more Home Runs than many modern day pitchers. He allowed 6.2% of the 383 Home Runs hit in 1887 and 7.2% of the 371 hit in 1889. In 2018, Tyler Anderson of the Rockies and Chase Anderson of the Brewers led the National League with 30 Home Runs allowed. They both allowed 1.1% of the 2,685 Home Runs hit.
Offensively, Getzien had 1,140 Plate Appearances, 1,056 At Bats, collecting 209 Hits, 27 Doubles, 15 Triples, 8 Home Runs, 109 RBI, 17 Stolen Bases, 78 Walks, 247 Strike Outs, .198 Batting Average, .257 On-Base Percentage, .275 Slugging, and .532 OPS. His pitching, not hitting, abilities made him dangerous on the diamond.
Pretzels Getzien is most remembered for his odd nickname. On his 155th Birthday, let us remember him as the career WAR leader for Major Leaguers born on Valentine’s Day. So in his honor, may the love of your life be kind like the warm sunshine and green grass of the coming baseball season. Happy Valentine’s Day, WAR can create love.
The beautiful thing about baseball is there is no clock. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said it best, “In baseball, you can’t kill the clock. You’ve got to give the other man his chance.” There are no clocks counting down the end of a game, just the anticipation of the final out.
Baseball, and the lack of a clock, does from time to time does go a little crazy. The 26 inning marathon on May 1, 1920 between the Boston Braves and Brooklyn Robins ended in a 1-1 tie, called due to darkness. The 25 inning game on May 8 and 9, 1984 between the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers lasted 8 hours and 6 minutes. Newly elected Hall of Famer Harold Baines mercifully hit a walk off home run to give Chicago a 7-6 victory. A day at the ballpark is far from predictable.
Then there was the April 18, 1981 Triple A game between the Pawtucket Red Sox and Rochester Red Wings. The longest game in professional baseball history and the subject of Dan Barry’s book, Bottom of the 33rd. The start of the game was delayed a half hour due to malfunctioning lights at McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket. The cold New England air and Easter church services the next morning kept many fans away, as paid attendance that fateful night did not total 2,000, yet many later claimed to have attended.
The game plotted along with Rochester leading 1-0 as the bottom of the 9th began. The Red Sox needed one run to force extra innings. Be careful what you wish for. Chico Walker scored on a Russ Laribee sac fly to left field, sending the game into the great unknown that is free baseball. Normally, extra inning games are quickly resolved allowing the fans and players go on about their lives. This game was different. What followed was a struggle for survival between two teams, a cold New England night, a missing page in the rule book, and a League President gone missing.
Even Pawtucket Red Sox Manager Joe Morgan was pleading for the game to be over. (Bottom of the 33rd/ Harper Collins)
I will stop here to not ruin the rest of the story. I can say Dan Barry’s writing is magnificent. Bottom of the 33rd reads like a radio broadcast. However, the book’s advantage over radio is Barry ability to take side trips about the people involved with the game. Humanizing those trapped in the game heightens the excitement of the story.
The account of the longest baseball game goes beyond the diamond and into the lives of the people. Two future Hall of Famer players, Wade Boggs for Pawtucket and Cal Ripken Jr. for Rochester, are well chronicled. However, the most poignant and painful parts of the book are the destinies of the players who never made it to the Majors.
Triple A is one step away from the top of the sport, yet many players never take that final step. They are so close to the summit, yet they continue to struggle to survive in the Minors. The life of a Minor League player is not glamorous. Long bus rides, cramped living and working conditions, a long season with few off days, low pay, and knowing your dream of playing in the Majors can disappear in a flash. Despite the long odds, every year players attempt to do the improbable and make it to the Majors. Their struggles were on full display that night in Pawtucket. Bottom of the 33rd is a microcosm of the cruelty that is baseball.