Tagged: Detroit Tigers

Predictions Sure To Go Wrong 10.0 

The 2024 MLB season has begun. Little is certain in baseball, even a few weeks into the season. While we are super late getting our predictions posted this year, we nevertheless feel strongly that even with a small sample size we will continue our tradition of being terrible at predicting the future. Despite a decade of failure we continue on. Here are our predictions for the 2024 MLB season. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
Orioles Camden CrushersYankeesOriolesBmoreOrioles
Blue Jays (5)God’s Waiting Room (5)Orioles (5)Blue Jays (5)Yankees (4)Yankees (5)
RaysFree HealthcareJaysYankees (6)Tampa Bay (5)Blue Jays (6)
YankeesAaron’s BoondoggleRaysRaysTorontoRays
Red SoxWe all went Red SoxRedSuxRed SoxRed SuxRed Sox

It will be a dreadful season at Fenway. Meanwhile in Baltimore, the future is arriving. The young, and hyped, Orioles could make a deep run if their young stars live up to expectations. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays could have terrific or horrific seasons. Both are possible. The American League East is not the juggernaut it once was. 

Can the Orioles youth live you to the hype? (Mitch Stringer- USA TODAY Sports)

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
TwinsSouthsideTwinsTwinsClevelandTwins
TigersTwinkies (6)ChiSox (6)GuardiansTwinkiesGuardians
GuardiansBridge StatuesTigersTigersRoyalsWhite Sox
White SoxKate’s ReplacementsGuardiansRoyalsTigersTigers
RoyalsTony the TigersRoyalsWhite SoxWhite SuxRoyals

The American League Central remains the weakest division in baseball. Top to bottom there is not a single team capable of making a deep run in October. Minnesota should walk away with the division, but are they really a good team? The only surprise could be Detroit, where the improving Tigers could make a run at relevancy…maybe. 

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RangersWalker: TexasRangersAstrosRangersRangers
Astros (4)Trashtros (4)Astros (4)Rangers (4)Astros (6)Astros (4)
Mariners (6)Seamen of the PoopdeckMarinersMarinersMarinersMariners
AngelsRendon’s RascalsAngelsAthleticsAngelsAngels
ElephantsVegasPatheticsAngelsAthleticsAthletics

The Rangers and Astros will fight it out for the division and Wild Card. The Mariners need everything to go right to play meaningful baseball in September. The Angels should be thankful for the Athletics, otherwise they would finish last. The Oakland/Sacramento/Vegas A’s are a mess. 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
BravesBravosBraves BravesBravesBraves
Phillies (5)Phollies (4)Phillies (5)Phillies (5)Philly (5)Phillies (5)
MarlinsFish (6)MarlinsMetsFishMarlins
MetsAmazinsMetsMarlinsMetsMets
NationalsGnats (will face relegation)NationalsNationalsNatsNationals

The Phillies are a very good team, but the Braves are a great team. The division once again runs through Atlanta. Philadelphia will position itself for the Wild Card. The Marlins and Mets need to have a special season if they want their fans to watch beyond the All Star Break. This is the last year of the Nationals’ Cherry Blossom jerseys. 

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RedsSkylinePiratesBrewersCubsReds
Cardinals (6)Red BirdsReds (6)CubsReds (6)Cardinals (6)
CubsHot Dog RaceCardinalsRedsBrewersCubs
BrewersBuccosCubsCardinalsCardinalsBrewers
PiratesWrigleyvilleBrewersPiratesPiratesPirates

The Cardinals look to bounce back from one of the worst, and surprising, seasons in franchise history. The Reds have a great young line up, but do they have the pitching? We picked the Cubs to finish literally everywhere, so your guess is as good as ours. The Brewers are on the way down. Are the Pirates finally on the way up? 

The Reds have the bats to compete. (www.bleacherreport.com)

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
DodgersVince GullysDiamondbacksDodgersDodgersDodgers
Diamondbacks (4)Nope Ropes (5)Dodgers (4)Diamondbacks (4)Giants (4)Diamondbacks (4)
GiantsBig macsGiantsPadres (6)DBacksGiants
PadresAngre thePadresGiantsPadresPadres
RockiesCoorsRockiesRockiesRockiesRockies

The Dodgers should roll through the division, again. Arizona is hoping last season was not a fluke, but the start of sustained success. The Giants might hang around for a while before fading, but the real story is further south. Is this the year that San Diego finally plays up to their contracts or will this era of Padres baseball be loathed for their inability to compete? Just a friendly reminder, the Rockies are a Major League Baseball team. 

Postseason 

The Regular Season is chaotic, but the Postseason is unpredictable. The best team does not always win the World Series. Instead, teams look to get hot at the right moment. October is treacherous. The secret is simply, finding a way to win. The best players and teams do not always win, but will they in 2024? 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
TwinsSouthsideTwinsYankeesClevelandTwins
MarinersTwinkiesChiSoxTwinsAstrosYankees
Blue JaysTrashtrosAstrosBlue JaysYankeesAstros
AstrosGod’s Walking RoomOriolesRangersTampa BayWhite Sox

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RedsSkylinePiratesPadresCubsReds
CardinalsFishRedsBrewersRedsCubs
DiamondbacksPholliesPhilliesPhilliesGiantsPhillies
PhilliesNope RopesDodgersDiamondbacksPhilliesDiamondbacks

The Wild Card is a guessing game. The Astros could dominate the season and still be in the Wild Card. The Yankees, Phillies, and Diamondbacks might be a touch below the great teams, but that separation could force them to fight through the Wild Card. Unexpected teams can find themselves looking to continue their run through the Wild Card. This is what makes the Wild Card round the most chaotic and entertaining of the Postseason. 

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
AstrosSouthsideRangersRangersBmoreAstros
OriolesCamden CrushersAstrosOriolesAstrosOrioles
RangersTrashtrosYankeesYankeesRangersYankees
MarinersWalker: TexasTwinsAstrosYankeesRangers

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
DodgersVince GulleysBravesPhilliesDodgersDodgers
PhilliesNope RopesPhilliesDodgersGiantsPhillies
BravesBravosDiamondbacksPadresBravesBraves
RedsFishPiratesBravesRedsDiamondbacks

Is this the year the Astros begin to fade away or will their run of success continue? Texas attempts to win back to back World Series titles, but it is no easy task. The Orioles are on the rise, but can they play deep into October or will they have to wait until next year? The Dodgers and Braves are on a collision course yet again. 

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
OriolesSouthsideYankeesYankeesBmoreOrioles
RangersTrashtrosRangersOriolesYankeesRangers

Experience matters in big games. Keeping calm allows teams to play their best in high stress situations. The Rangers have been through the fight before. Veteran leadership and poise keeps the noise down. Baltimore is coming. The Orioles have a bright future ahead, but their youth can only take them so far this season. 

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
BravesBravosBravesBravesBravesBraves
DodgersNope RopesDiamondbacksDodgersDodgersDodgers

If ever there was a guarantee in baseball it is that the National League runs through the Braves and Dodgers. The other 13 teams must beat one or both of these talented and dominant teams if they want to win the National League pennant. The Diamondbacks played spoiler last season, can they do it again or will a new spoiler arise? 

The Braves look to win another World Series in 2024. (Rich Schultz/ Getty Images)

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinThe Winning Run
RangersSouthsideYankeesOriolesBravesBraves
BravesBravosBravesDodgersYankeesRangers

The Braves and Rangers have the talent and experience to make it through the chaos of the Postseason. Both teams are filled with stars and role players that contribute to their team’s success. However, there can only be one World Series champion. 

Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves for winning their fifth World Series Championship. History says the Fall Classic will not follow our predictions, but time will tell. 

Happy Baseball.

DJ, JJ, JB, BL, and KB

United States of Baseball- Utah

Utah is pushing to someday have a Major League team. While they wait, the Beehive State continues to grow its baseball tradition. The United States of Baseball is important for baseball powerhouses like California and Florida, and for less prodigious baseball states like Utah and its 43 Major League players. The greatest pitcher born in Utah is Bruce Hurst. His 34.52 career WAR is the 42nd highest among state and territory pitching leaders. The greatest position player born in the Beehive State is Duke Sims. His 12.78 career WAR is the 51st highest among state and territory position player leaders. Utah has a combined 47.30 WAR, ranking the Beehive State 50th among all states and territories. 

There is always a first. The first player ever drafted from Utah was Bruce Hurst. The St. George native was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 1st Round, 22nd overall, of the 1976 MLB Draft. The crafty Lefty pitched 15 seasons with 4 teams: Boston Red Sox (1980-1988), San Diego Padres (1989-1993), Colorado Rockies (1993), and Texas Rangers (1994). Hurst pitched in 379 career Games, made 359 Starts, 5 Games Finished, with 83 Complete Games, 23 Shutouts, 2,417.1 Innings Pitched, allowed 2,463 Hits, 1,143 Runs, 1,052 Earned Runs, 740 Walks, 1,689 Strikeouts, posted a 145-113 record, with a 3.92 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, and 104 ERA+. He has the second most Wins at Fenway Park with 57, behind only Mel Parnell’s 71. Hurst was the third pitcher to record 1,000 career Strikeouts with the Red Sox. He was inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame in 2004. He left Boston in Free Agency after the 1988 season after the Front Office played hardball and told him to test the open market. This was during the Owner’s Collusion to stamp out free agency. Ultimately Hurst signed with the Padres. His 1987 All Star selection remains Utah’s only trip to the Mid-Summer Classic. He is also the Beehive State leader in Wins, Losses, Games Started, Complete Games, Shutouts, Innings Pitched, Hits, Runs, Earned Runs, Home Runs, Walks, and Strikeouts. After retiring he served as a coach and scout internationally for Major League Baseball in Italy and Latin America, and as the Pitching Coach for the Chinese National Baseball team in 2005-2006 and 2012-2013. 

Bruce Hurst enjoyed his best season in San Diego after Boston played hardball with him. (www.mlb.com)

The best season of Hurst’s career came with the 1989 Padres. He pitched in 33 Games, made 33 Starts, threw 10 Complete Games, including 2 Shutouts, in 244.2 Innings Pitched, allowed 214 Hits, 84 Runs, 73 Earned Runs, 66 Walks, 179 Strikeouts, posted a 15-11 record, with a 2.69 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, and 131 ERA+. Hurst led the National League in Complete Games. He also set career bests in Games Started, Innings Pitched, and ERA. The Padres finished just 3 Games Behind the San Francisco Giants for the National League West Division title. 

Hurst pitched in three Postseason series: 1986 and 1988 American League Championship Series and 1986 World Series. He pitched in 7 Postseason Games, made 7 Starts, threw 3 Complete Games, in 51 Innings Pitched, allowed 46 Hits, 14 Runs, 13 Earned Runs, 12 Walks, 37 Strikeouts, posted a 3-2 record, with a 2.29 ERA, and 1.137 WHIP. Hurst nearly pitched the Red Sox to a World Series title against the Mets. He Started Games 1, 5, and 7. He threw 8 Shutout Innings in the Red Sox Game 1 victory. He pitched a Complete Game victory in Game 5. In Game 7, Hurst pitched 6 Innings and allowed 3 Earned Runs. When he left the game the score was tied 3-3, before the Mets pulled away for an 8-5 victory. Boston needed to win one of the final two games, but The Curse of the Bambino was stronger than Hurst’s Left Arm. 

Duane “Duke” Sims made a career as a solid backstop. The Salt Lake City native played 11 seasons with 5 teams: Cleveland Indians (1964-1970), Los Angeles Dodgers (1971-1972), Detroit Tigers (1972-1973), New York Yankees (1973-1974), and Texas Rangers (1974). Sims played in 843 career Games, scored 263 Runs, collected 580 Hits, 80 Doubles, 6 Triples, 100 Home Runs, 310 RBI, 6 Stolen Bases, drawing 338 Walks, 483 Strikeouts, posting a .239 BA, .340 OBP, .401 SLG, .741 OPS, 112 OPS+, and 972 Total Bases. His most famous Home Run came on September 30, 1973 off of Fred Holdsworth. Sims hit the final Home Run at Yankee Stadium before the House That Ruth Built closed for two seasons for extensive renovations. Sims is Utah’s all-time leader in career Games Played, Plate Appearances, At Bats, Runs scored, Hits, Double, Home Runs, RBI, Walks, and Strikeouts. Career success is measured in many ways.  

Duke Sims hit the last Home Run at the original Yankee Stadium. (www.mlive.com)

The best season of Sims’ career came with the 1970 Cleveland Indians. He played in 110 Games, scored 46 Runs, collected 91 Hits, including 12 Doubles, 23 Home Runs, 56 RBI, drew 46 Walks, 59 Strikeouts, .264 BA, .360 OBP, .499 SLG, .859 OPS, 131 OPS+, and 172 Total Bases. Sims set career best in Hits, Home Runs, RBI, SLG, OPS, and Total Bases. That Winter, Cleveland traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Alan Foster and Ray Lamb

Sims played in one Postseason series, the 1972 American League Championship Series with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers lost in five games. Sims played in 4 Games, collected 3 Hits, 2 Doubles, 1 Triple, drew 1 Walk, 2 Strikeouts, with a .214 BA, .267 OBP, .500 SLG, .767 OPS, and 7 Total Bases. October can be a mystery for some teams. 

No Utah native has been elected to the Hall of Fame. Bruce Hurst appeared on the 2000 Hall of Fame ballot and received one vote (0.2%). Duke Sims appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1980, but received no votes. As the state produces more Major League quality players, Cooperstown should eventually get its first member from the Beehive State. Next the United States of Baseball returns to New England and The Green Mountain State. Vermont is next. 

DJ

Missing #4- Kid Elberfeld

You can dedicate your life to baseball and have a dramatic impact on people and the game. However, this does not mean you are destined for Cooperstown. Norman Arthur Elberfeld grew up in Cincinnati, cheering for the Reds and made a name for himself on local diamonds. The Tabasco Kid, or Kid, played primarily Shortstop for 14 seasons with six teams: Philadelphia Phillies (1898), Cincinnati Reds (1899), Detroit Tigers (1901-1903), New York Highlanders (1903-1909), Washington Nationals (1910-1911), and Brooklyn Dodgers (1914). He spent the 1908 season as the Player-Manager for the New York Highlanders, guiding them to a 27-71 record, .276 WL%. Elberfeld was a much better Major League player than manager. 

Elberfeld appeared on the 1936 Hall of Fame ballot. This came after a career in which he played in 1,292 Games, scored 647 Runs, collected 1,235 Hits, including 169 Doubles, 56 Triples, 10 Home Runs, 535 RBI, 213 Stolen Bases, drew 427 Walks, 166 Strikeouts, posted a .271 BA, .355 OBP, .339 SLG, .694 OPS, and 106 OPS+. Elberfeld turned Hit By the Pitch into an art form. His 165 Hit By Pitches still ranks 19th all time. 

Defensively, Elberfeld played in 1,265 Games, made 1,196 Starts, 1,135 Complete Games, 10,835 Innings, had 6,993 Chances, made 2,681 Putouts, with 3,774 Assists, committed 538 Errors, .923 FLD%, 5.36 RF/9, and 5.10 RF/G. He was fearless, never shying away from confrontation. Elberfeld wore a whalebone shin guard after being spiked multiple times while turning Double Plays. His aggression towards opposing players and umpires, leading to multiple injuries, fights, and suspensions. 

Kid Elberfeld was ruthless in his pursuit of winning. (George Grantham Bain Collection- Library of Congress)

The best season of Elberfeld’s career came with the 1901 Detroit Tigers. He played in 121 Games, scored 76 Runs, collected 133 Hits, including 21 Doubles, 11 Triples, 3 Home Runs, 76 RBI, 23 Stolen Bases, drew 57 Walks, 18 Strikeouts, with a .308 BA, .397 OBP, .428 SLG, .825 OPS, and 125 OPS+. Elberfeld posted career bests in Triples, Home Runs, RBI, BA, SLG, and OPS. Despite the great start, Elberfeld failed to build a Hall of Fame career. 

The game continues to change so it is only appropriate to compare Elberfeld to his contemporaries who were elected to Cooperstown. There are 26 Hall of Fame Shortstops, of which six played during the Dead Ball Era. The average Dead Ball Era Shortstop played 19 seasons, 2,078 career Games, scored 1,253 Runs, collected 2,286 Hits, including 369 Doubles, 143 Triples, 47 Home Runs, 1,131 RBI, 463 Stolen Bases, drew 633 Walks, 499 Strikeouts, with a .290 BA, .350 OBP, .388 SLG, .738 OPS, 113 OPS+, and 69.4 WAR. These Shortstops played their way into the Hall of Fame. Kid Elberfeld did not. He was only better by having 333 fewer Strikeouts and a .005 higher OBP. It is not a close comparison.  

Kid Elberfeld was a true baseball man, spending time as a coach, scout, mentor, and teacher. He was good for the game, but not a Hall of Famer. On the 1936 ballot, Elberfeld received 1 vote, 0.4%. He was tied for the 39th most votes on the ballot. He would appear on the Hall of Fame ballot five times, peaking with 0.8% in both 1938 and 1945. The Hall of Fame voters got it right. Kid Elberfeld does not deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown. Sometimes the value of an honor is shown through those not receiving it. 

DJ

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 9.0 

What a shock! Few foresaw the Rangers defeating the Diamondbacks in the 2023 World Series. We certainly did not. Despite trying to predict the outcome of the last nine MLB seasons, we continue to know nothing. We were incredibly bad in 2023. The season was filled with great stories and terrible collapses. The Mets were the Mets and baseball was its usual unpredictable self. We may have been terrible at predicting the season, but how bad was it? 

Really bad. Our scoring system is designed to clearly show who is the best at predicting the baseball season before the first pitch is thrown. Points are scored in the following ways: a correct prediction of a team’s final divisional standings in the Regular Season is one point, two points for predicting the Wild Card, four for the Divisional Series, eight for the Championship Series, and 16 for the World Series and the Champion. A perfect score is 158 points. We were far from perfect. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue Jays (1)Steinbrenners (2)Yankees(2)Yankees (2)Maple leafs (2)Yankees (2)Yankees (2)Orioles
Yankees (5)Devil Rays (5)Blue JaysBlue Jays (4)Yankees (4)Blue Jays (4)Blue Jays (4)Rays
RaysCanadiansMontreal RaysOriolesDevil rays (6)OriolesRaysBlue Jays
OriolesBean EatersRed SuxRaysBmoreRaysOriolesYankees
Red SoxCamdenOriolesRed SoxRed SuxRed SoxRed SoxRed Sox

Our predictions got off to a rough start. Jesse was the only one to have multiple correct predictions with the Rays in second and Blue Jays in third. Derek, Bernie, Kevin, Jason, and The Winning Run all knew it would be a bad season in Boston. John missed completely. Not a great start, but hope springs eternal.

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Guardians (3)(Jeff) Bridges (3)GuardsWhite Sox (3)ChiSox (3)Cleveland (3)Guardians (3)Twins
White SoxTwinkies (4)TwinksTwinsFlaming RiversTwins (5)White Sox (5)Tigers
TwinsSouthsideChisoxGuardiansTwinsRoyalsTwins (6)Guardians
TigersKittehsRoyalsTigersRawrWhite SoxTigersWhite Sox
RoyalsMonarchsTigresRoyalsKCTigersRoyalsRoyals

Again we knew who would be bad. The Royals never inspired us. Jason knew the White Sox would be only slightly better than last place. Bernie found the Guardians finishing third. He was the only one to have more than a single correct pick. John was now 0 for 2 divisions. A second straight division of bad predictions did not inspire confidence in the rest of our picks. 

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Mariners (2)Trashtros (1)Cheaters (1)Astros (1)Trashtros (1)Astros (1)Astros (1)Astros
Astros(4)Halos (6)RangersAngels (5)Kraken (5)Mariners (6)MarinersRangers
Angels (6)SubmarinersOhtanisRangers (6)RangersRangersAngelsMariners
RangersBrett MarteeenMarinersMarinersHalosAngelsRangersAngels
AthleticsWhite ElephantsLas VegasAthleticsLas VegasOaklandAthleticsAthletics 

Finally we got on track. Derek for some reason decided the Astros were not going to win the division again. He was the only one. Everyone knew the poor A’s would be eliminated on Opening Day. Kevin and Jason had the end of the Ohtani era with the Angels again finishing fourth and out of October. Jesse had the Mariners falling back after a great 2022 season to third place. John had the Rangers finishing just behind the Astros. Everyone except Derek got back on track. How would we do in the National League? 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Braves (1)Braves (2)BravesPhillies (3)Braves (1)Braves (1)Braves (2)Braves
Mets (4)Amazins (4)MetsBraves (5)Phillies (5)Mets (5)Mets (6)Phillies
PhilliesFollies (6)PhilsMetsFishPhilliesPhilliesMarlins
MarlinsFishMarlinsNationalsAmazingsMarlinsMarlinsMets
NationalsGnatsNatsMarlinsNatsNationalsNationalsNationals 

Maybe it was our fandom, or just logic, but the Braves were the easy choice in the National League East. The Nationals were equally easy to finish in the basement. In between was more challenging. The Mets out Mets themselves to finish fourth. Kevin got the first perfect divisional prediction. Bernie whiffed because he had too much confidence in the Nationals. 

The Mets failed on so many levels in 2023 (John Bazemore/ Associated Press)

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Cardinals (3)Redbirds (3)CardinalsCardinals (2)Uncle Tickles (3)Cardinals (4)Cardinals (1)Brewers
Brewers (6)BrewcrewCubbiesBrewersCubbiesBrewers (6)Brewers (5)Cubs
CubsHarray CarraysBeersCubsDrunksCubs WINCubsReds
PiratesCin CityDredsRedsTeam of catchersRedsRedsPirates
RedsBuccosPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesCardinals

The National League Central was a mystery. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run all whiffed. Derek had the Pirates in fourth, while John and Kevin had the Cubs in second. We did not predict the disaster that was the Cardinals, as everyone had them winning the division. The Reds also surprised us with their third place finish. Brutal. 

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Dodgers (2)Dodger Dogs (1)PadresPadres (1)Dodgers (2)Padres (2)Dodgers (3)Dodgers
Padres (5)McD’s (5)DodgersDodgers (4)Friars (4)Dodgers (3)Padres (4)Diamondbacks
GiantsMcCovey’s CoveDbacksGiants (6)Dbacks (6)DiamondbacksGiantsPadres
DiamondbacksSnecksGiantsRockiesGiantsGiantsDiamondbacksGiants
RockiesCoorsRockiesDiamondbacksDecisional Front OfficeColoradoRockiesRockies

The Dodgers in first and Rockies last were easy. The Diamondbacks surprised everyone with their surge to the National League Pennant. The slide that cost Gabe Kapler his job was easy to see coming. The Padres tried and failed to contend. Kevin only mixed up the Padres and Diamondbacks. Bernie whiffed again, striking out on the entire National League. Making predictions is hard, as we proved yet again. 

Standings after the Regular Season

  1. Kevin- 13
  2. Jesse- 10
  3. Jason- 9
  4. Derek- 8
  5. John- 8
  6. The Winning Run- 8
  7. Bernie- 5

At the end of the Regular Season only Kevin was halfway decent. It had been a long miserable Summer for everyone else. Bernie missed the Senior Circuit, but he was only three points behind Derek, John, and The Winning Run. Could things turn around for the better in October or were we doomed by our bad predictions? 

Postseason 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Guardians(Jeff) BridgesGuardsWhite SoxChiSoxClevelandGuardiansTwins
AngelsHalosTwinksRangersDevil RaysMarinersTwinsBlue Jays
AstrosTwinkiesJaysBlue JaysYankeesBlue JaysBlue JaysRangers
YankeesDevil RaysRangersAngelsKrakenTwinsWhite SoxRays

John found his groove in the Wild Card. He had the Twins, Blue Jays, and Rangers. Jesse, Bernie, Jason, and The Winning Run had two correct picks each in the Wild Card. Kevin’s good luck hit hard times, while Derek continued to show how little he knows about the future of baseball. This was a bad time to make bad predictions. 

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
CardinalsRedbirdsCardsPhilliesUncle TicklesCardinalsDodgersDiamondbacks
BrewersFolliesPhilsGiantsDbacksMetsMetsBrewers
MetsAmazinsDodgersDodgersFriarsDodgersPadresPhillies
PadresMcD’sMetsBravesPhilliesBrewersBrewersMarlins

Kevin reversed his fortunes with two correct picks. Everyone else had either the Phillies or Brewers. Bernie finally had a correct National League prediction. While it was good to have at least one correct prediction, it was not great that the majority of our picks were terrible. 

Standings after the Wild Card

  1. Kevin- 17
  2. Jesse- 16
  3. John- 16
  4. Jason- 15
  5. The Winning Run- 14
  6. Bernie- 11
  7. Derek- 10

The Wild Card round helped John and Bernie rebound from the Regular Season. Bernie was out of the basement. Derek was terrible as he took Bernie’s place. Kevin saw his lead shrink. The Wild Card created chaos, as predicted. 

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysTrashtrosCheatersAstrosTrashtrosAstrosAstrosAstros
AstrosTwinkiesGuardsAngelsKrakenBlue JaysBlue JaysTwins
MarinersSteinbrennersYankeesYankeesMaple leafsYankeesYankeesRangers
Angels(Jeff) BridgesJaysWhite SoxDevil RaysClevelandGuardiansOrioles

The Astros were the easy pick, even Derek had Houston playing in the Divisional Series. Jesse also had the Twins, giving him points over everyone else. Otherwise our predictions were living in a fantasy land. 

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
BravesDodger DogsPadresPadresBravesBravesCardinalsDiamondbacks
PadresAmazinsCardsGiantsFriarsMetsPadresDodgers
DodgersBravesBravesCardinalsDodgersPadresBravesPhillies
CardinalsFolliesDodgersBravesDbacksDodgersDodgersBraves

The Braves and Dodgers were easy picks. The National League ran through them. Only Bernie missed Los Angeles. Jesse with the Phillies and Kevin with the Diamondbacks had a third team in the Divisional Series. Jesse was making moves while the rest of us languished. 

Standings after the Divisional Series

  1. Jesse- 36
  2. Kevin- 33
  3. John- 28
  4. Jason- 27
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Jesse launched past Kevin. Derek and Bernie were duking it out for last place. None of us were doing well. Our predictions were trash. 

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Blue JaysTrashtorsCheatersAngelsMaple LeafsAstrosYankeesRangers
Mariners(Jeff) BridgesYankeesYankeesKrakenYankeesAstrosAstros

The Astros kept marching towards the World Series. Jesse, John, Jason, and The Winning Run knew this. Derek, Bernie, and Kevin did not get the memo. Derek and Bernie continued fighting in the cellar. Kevin’s whiff hurt his title chances. Besides Houston, we had no clue on the American League. 

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
BravesAmazinsPadresPadresBravesBravesBravesDiamondbacks
DodgersBravesBravesBravesDodgersDodgersPadresPhillies

We were terrible at the American League. We were clueless about the Senior Circuit. The Mets and Padres Regular Season failures haunted us. Both the Braves and Dodgers failed to live up to October expectations. What were we thinking? 

Standings after the Championship Series

  1. Jesse- 44
  2. John- 36
  3. Jason- 35
  4. Kevin- 33
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Kevin plummeted down the rankings. Derek and Bernie readied for a futility throw down. Jesse’s lead looked hard to beat, but the Fall Classic awaited us. Kevin, Jason, and John were within striking distance if Jesse faltered. 

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning RunReality
Braves(Jeff) BridgesPadresYankeesKrakenAstrosBravesRangers
Blue JaysBravesCheatersPadresBravesBravesAstrosDiamondbacks

We suck. None of us predicted either World Series team. A big swing and miss. There would be no last second change in the standings. Try as we might, we know nothing about the future of baseball. 

Final Standings

  1. Jesse- 44
  2. John- 36
  3. Jason- 35
  4. Kevin- 33
  5. The Winning Run- 26
  6. Derek- 22
  7. Bernie- 19

Congratulations Jesse, you are the best among us at predicting the 2023 MLB season. We were all terrible, but you were slightly less terrible. Maybe in 2024 we will be better…doubtful. 

DJ

Rookie of the Year

Teams are successful when they develop talent, not simply purchase free agents. The George Steinbrenner Yankees were often accused of buying championships, but they did develop talent. Success is turning draft picks and international signings into Major League players. The Rookie of the Year Award recognizes the best first year player in each league. Created in 1947, there was a single Award for the first two seasons, but since 1949 each league has a winner. While it is an individual award, the Rookie of the Year Award should also be viewed as an organizational award. If a franchise is consistently producing quality Major League caliber players they will eventually have one worthy of the award. The Diamondbacks are the last of the 30 Major League teams to have a Rookie of the Year. It took 25 years for Arizona to achieve. While it may have taken longer than expected for a player like Corbin Carroll to arrive, Arizona has finally completed the task. 

The inaugural Rookie of the Year Award was presented to Jackie Robinson after the most difficult rookie season in Major League history. Al Dark of the Boston Braves won in 1948. In 1949, Roy Sievers of the St. Louis Browns won the first American League Rookie of the Year Award. In more than 75 years since its creation, the Dodgers reigned supreme at producing elite rookies. The Dodgers have won a record 18 times, four in Brooklyn and 14 in Los Angeles. The Yankees are second with nine. 

The expectation was the Expansion teams would be among the last to have a Rookie of the Year. When expansion’s first wave came in 1961, only the Cubs and Pirates had yet to win the Rookie of the Year. However, the Cubs won their first Rookie of the Year in 1961 with the future Hall of Famer Billy Williams. This left Pittsburgh as the last non-expansion team without the award. Surely the Pirates could produce an elite rookie at some point. Instead, 12 of the 14 Expansion teams developed a Rookie of the Year before Pittsburgh. Finally, in 2004 Jason Bay put together a rookie campaign deemed worthy, giving the Pirates their first Rookie of the Year. Only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks had yet to win the award in 2004. Both franchises began play in 1998. The Pirates lack of success is just another disappointment in an ever growing list. 

Corbin Carroll is the Diamondbacks first Rookie of the Year. Arizona was the last remaining team without a Rookie of the Year winner. (Rob Leiter/ MLB Photos)

Simply winning the Rookie of the Year Award does not guarantee success beyond that first season in the Majors. Every player has the best season of their career, and for some it is that first season. There are others, who build upon their initial success. They finish their careers among the greatest ever. There are 19 players who won the Rookie of the Year Award and then had a Hall of Fame career

  1. Jackie Robinson- Brooklyn Dodgers, 1947
  2. Willie Mays- New York Giants, 1951
  3. Frank Robinson- Cincinnati Reds, 1956
  4. Luis Aparicio- Chicago White Sox, 1956
  5. Orlando Cepeda- San Francisco Giants, 1958
  6. Willie McCovey- San Francisco Giants, 1959
  7. Billy Williams- Chicago Cubs, 1961
  8. Tony Oliva- Minnesota Twins, 1964
  9. Tom Seaver- New York Mets, 1967
  10. Rod Carew- Minnesota Twins, 1967
  11. Johnny Bench- Cincinnati Reds, 1968
  12. Carlton Fisk- Boston Red Sox, 1972
  13. Andre Dawson- Montreal Expos, 1977
  14. Eddie Murray- Baltimore Orioles, 1977
  15. Cal Ripken Jr.- Baltimore Orioles, 1982
  16. Jeff Bagwell- Houston Astros, 1991
  17. Mike Piazza- Los Angeles Dodgers, 1993
  18. Derek Jeter- New York Yankees, 1996
  19. Scott Rolen- Philadelphia Phillies, 1997

In addition to these 19 Hall of Famers, there are five more players who will join them in Cooperstown when they are eligible. There will certainly be more, but these five are all but guaranteed to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  

  1. Albert Pujols- St. Louis Cardinals, 2001
  2. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners, 2001
  3. Justin Verlander- Detroit Tigers, 2006
  4. Bryce Harper- Washington Nationals, 2012
  5. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 2012

The Rookie of the Year Award celebrates the best new talent in the Majors each season. The players selected each season are not guaranteed a long and successful career, nor are they doomed to mediocrity. One great season does not define a player, but it can gain them recognition. Teams are tasked with developing the players and their success is reflected in winning the Rookie of the Year Award. It is nearly impossible to win multiple seasons in a row, but a team should consistently produce good, young players. Occasionally one should win the award. The Dodgers have figured out how to do just that, and the Pirates have not. All 30 MLB teams have now had a Rookie of the Year winner. Who adds to their list next season?  

DJ

World Series of Chaos

We have our World Series matchup, Texas Rangers against Arizona Diamondbacks.

This is the first Fall Classic matchup between these two franchises. The Rangers are making their third trip to the World Series. They lost back to back World Series in 2010 and 2011. Texas has yet to reach the mountain top. The Diamondbacks are making their second appearance. They won a thriller in Game 7 against the Yankees in 2001. Will north Texas finally win it all or will the desert take home a second Commissioner’s Trophy? 

Bruce Bochy has spent 26 seasons as a Major League manager. He has a 2,093-2,101 record, a .499 Win%. Bochy passed Walter Alston earlier this season to move into tenth place all-time in wins. Bochy, Bucky Harris, and Connie Mack are the only three managers with a losing record in the top ten. Four victories in the World Series would tie Bochy with Dusty Baker with 57 Postseason wins, the fourth most ever. He has done well as the winningest, and only, French born manager ever. This is the third team Bochy has led to the World Series. He won the National League Pennant with the Padres in 1998 and led the Giants to three World Series titles in five years between 2010 and 2014. Can he win his fourth title in his first season with the Rangers? 

Torey Lovullo is in his seventh season as a Major League manager. He has a 495-537 record, a .480 Win%. Lovullo has the 142nd most career victories as a Major League Manager. He took over the Diamondbacks in 2017 after they finished with just 69 wins in 2016. Arizona immediately responded with a 93 win season and a trip to the Division Series, where they were swept by the Dodgers. The front office has stayed the course with Lovullo, as the Diamondbacks have finished an average of 26 behind the National League West division winner in the last six seasons. The only thing that matters now is the Diamondbacks are hot at the right time. 

One of the least probable World Series is upon us. (www.si.com)

Tommy Lasorda. He is the difference between Bruce Bochy and Torey Lovullo. Bochy has 1,598 more victories than Lovullo. Lasorda posted 1,599 wins in his Hall of Fame managerial career. This difference typifies how crazy baseball can be. Bochy is on his way to Cooperstown. Lovullo is already the winningest manager in Arizona history and could be on his way to the Diamondbacks Hall of Fame with four more victories. Baseball does not care about your history, only what you can do today. 

How will this World Series unfold? History says it will be chaos. The last three Fall Classics have gone six games. The last World Series Game 7 was 2019 when the Nationals triumphed over the Astros. The last World Series sweep was 2012 as the Giants swept the Tigers. Who has the advantage this October? Honestly no one knows, because the last ten World Series are an even split with the American and National League each winning five times. 

Enjoy the end of the baseball season. The cold of Winter is coming. Another baseball season is drawing to a close. The unpredictability of the game has led us to this World Series, Rangers vs Diamondbacks. Every season is a free for all. This year is no different. The Mets and Padres are proof you cannot buy your way into the Postseason. The League Championship Series were some of the best baseball has to offer. Hopefully it continues into November. 

DJ

United States of Baseball- Tennessee

It seems inevitable that Major League Baseball will expand to 32 teams. When it does, Nashville has a good chance of landing one of the new teams. Tennessee’s baseball history runs deep and the addition of a MLB team would further that legacy. The Volunteer State has sent 405 players to the Major Leagues. The greatest pitcher born in Tennessee is Tommy Bridges. His 51.62 career WAR is the 27th highest among state and territory pitching leaders. The greatest position player from the Volunteer State is Todd Helton. His 61.78 career WAR is the 32nd highest among state and territory position player leaders. Combined Tennessee has 113.40 WAR, ranking the Volunteer State 32nd in the United States of Baseball. 

Tommy Bridges was born in Gordonsville and found baseball success in Detroit. The Right Hander attended the University of Tennessee, but left to pursue baseball. He played 16 seasons with the Detroit Tigers (1930-1943, 1945-1946). Despite a small build, Bridges gave opposing batters stomach ulcers with his curveball and fastball combination. Making his Major League debut on August 13, 1930 at Yankee Stadium, Bridges was immediately put to the test. The first batter he faced was Babe Ruth, who popped out to Third. Next, Tony Lazzeri Singled. Bridges then struck out Lou Gehrig. Finally, Harry Rice grounded out to Second. The first three batters of his career were Hall of Famers, two of which are among the greatest ever. After escaping the Bronx, Bridges pitched in 424 career Games, made 362 Starts, with 47 Games Finished, 200 Complete Games, including 33 Shutouts, in 2,826.1 Innings Pitched, allowed 2,675 Hits, 1,321 Runs, 1,122 Earned Runs, 181 Home Runs, 1,192 Walks, 1,674 Strikeouts, posted a 194-138 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, and 126 ERA+. He was a six time All Star. 

Bridges fell one out short of a Perfect Game on August 5, 1932. The Tigers were dismantling the Washington Senators at Navin Field in Detroit. Leading 13 to 0 with two outs in the 9th Inning, Senators Manager Walter Johnson sent Dave Harris to Pinch Hit for Pitcher Bobby Burke. Harris Singled to break up the Perfecto. Bridges composed himself and induced a groundout from Sam Rice. He narrowly missed pitching the sixth Perfect Game in MLB history. It took nearly a quarter century until Don Larsen threw the next Perfect Game in the 1956 World Series. 

Despite his success, Bridges’ number would have been better had he not spent the 1944 season in the Army during World War II. In 1949, he declined an offer from the Yankees choosing to continue pitching for the Minor League Portland Beavers. 

Tommy Bridges was a critical part of two World Series victories for the Tigers. (www.curveinthedirt.com)

The best season of Bridges’ career was 1936. He pitched in 39 Games for the Tigers, made 38 Starts, with 1 Game Finished, 26 Complete Games, including 5 Shutouts, in 294.2 Innings Pitched, allowed 289 Hits, 141 Runs, 118 Earned Runs, 21 Home Runs, 115 Walks, 175 Strikeouts, posted a 23-11 record, with a 3.60 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, and 137 ERA+. Bridges led the Junior Circuit in Starts, Wins, and Strikeouts. He set career bests in Games Pitched, Starts, Complete Games, Shutouts, Innings Pitched, Hits allowed, Runs, Earned Runs, Strikeouts, and Wins. He was an All Star and finished ninth in the American League MVP voting. 

Detroit was excellent throughout Bridges’ career. The Tigers appeared in the Fall Classic four times: 1934, 1935, 1940, and 1945. They won twice, in 1935 and 1945. In the World Series, Bridges pitched in 7 Games, made 5 Starts, threw 4 Complete Games, in 46.0 Innings Pitched, allowed 52 Hits, 22 Runs, 18 Earned Runs, 2 Home Runs, 9 Walks, 27 Strikeouts, posted a 4-1 record, with a 3.52 ERA, and 1.326 WHIP. Bridges’ success in the Regular Season carried into October. He appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for seven years, peaking with 7.5% in 1964. 

Todd Helton has lived every kid’s dream. The Knoxville native was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 1992 MLB Draft by the Padres, but chose to accept a football scholarship from the University of Tennessee and walked on the baseball team. Helton played 12 games for the Volunteers at Quarterback before an injury allowed Peyton Manning to replace him. Helton turned his attention to the diamond. He played Firstbase and was the Closer. He won the 1995 Dick Howser Trophy as the National Collegiate Baseball Player of the Year. The same year, the Rockies selected Helton with the 8th overall pick in the MLB Draft. 

After spending just two seasons in the Minor Leagues, Helton was called up. He spent his entire 17 season career with the Colorado Rockies (1997- 2013). He played in 2,247 career Games, scored 1,401 Runs, collected 2,519 Hits, including 592 Doubles, 37 Triples, 369 Home Runs, 1,406 RBI, 37 Stolen Bases, drew 1,335 Walks, 1,175 Strikeouts, with a .316 BA, .414 OBP, .539 SLG, .953 OPS, and 133 OPS+. Helton was a five time All Star, won three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and the 2000 National League Batting Title. He finished second behind Kerry Wood for the 1998 National League Rookie of the Year Award. Helton is the first player to collect 100 extra base hits in back to back seasons, 2000 and 2001. He is also the first player to hit 35 Doubles in 10 consecutive seasons. He was inducted into the Arizona Fall League Hall of Fame in 2003 and the University of Tennessee Hall of Fame in 2017. Helton is Colorado’s all time Home Run leader. He was the first Rockie to have his number retired, when Colorado retired his #17 in 2014. Helton has appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years. In 2023, he received 72.2% of the vote, falling just 11 votes short of induction. Helton appears headed to Cooperstown in 2024.

Todd Helton is a Rockies legend who will soon find a home in Cooperstown. (Colorado Public Radio)

The best season of Helton’s career came in 2000. He played in 160 Games, scored 138 Runs, collected 216 Hits, including 59 Doubles, 2 Triples, 42 Home Runs, 147 RBI, with 5 Stolen Bases, 103 Walks, 61 Strikeouts, .372 BA, .463 OBP, .698 SLG, 1.162 OPS, and 163 OPS+. He led the National League in Hits, Doubles, RBI, Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, and OPS. His 59 Doubles were the most in the Senior Circuit since Joe Medwick’s record 64 Doubles in 1936. Helton’s 103 Extra Base Hits were the second highest single season total in National League history, and the fourth highest in MLB history. He set career bests in Games Played, Runs scored, Hits, Doubles, RBI, Batting Average, Slugging, and OPS. Helton flirted with hitting .400 into August. He was an All Star, won the Silver Slugger, the Hank Aaron Award, and finished fifth in the National League MVP voting.  

It took 10 seasons before Helton reached the Postseason. They reached the 2007 Postseason after defeating the San Diego Padres in a winner take all play-in tiebreaker to determine the National League Wild Card. The Rockies then swept the Phillies and Diamondbacks to reach their first World Series. The quick work left Colorado ideal for over a week between clinching the National League pennant and the start of the World Series. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the Fall Classic. Helton returned to October in 2009 as the Rockies lost in the Divisional Series to the Phillies. In 15 Postseason Games, Helton scored 11 Runs, collected 12 Hits, 2 Doubles, 1 Triple, 4 RBI, 8 Walks, 11 Strikeouts, with a .211 BA, .303 OBP, .281 SLG, and .584 OPS. He did not play his best, but the Postseason is a small sample size even for great players. 

Tennessee has two Hall of Famers in Lee MacPhail (Executive) and Turkey Stearnes. Todd Helton should join them in 2024. He will not be the last from the Volunteer State to reach Cooperstown. Next, the United States of Baseball heads west to the Lone Star State. Texas is next.

DJ

United States of Baseball- South Dakota

South Dakota is more than just Mount Rushmore, even if the state’s nickname tries to persuade you otherwise. The Mount Rushmore State has sent 39 players to the Major Leagues. The greatest pitcher born in South Dakota is Jim Scott. His 27.70 career WAR is the 45th highest for a pitching state or territory leader. The greatest position player from the Mount Rushmore State is Mark Ellis. His 33.50 career WAR is the 44th highest among position player state or territory leaders. South Dakota has a combined 61.20 WAR, ranking the Mount Rushmore State 47th highest among all states and territories. 

During the early years of baseball, if a player did not live on the East Coast the chances of reaching the Major Leagues were low. Only great players emerged from west of the Mississippi River, as plenty of mediocre talent was available on the East Coast. Jim Scott was a great pitcher, but pitched for bad teams, constantly making him the hard luck loser. Death Valley Jim was born in Deadwood. The Right Hander worked his way up from local leagues to the Western Association, where the Chicago White Sox purchased him for $2,000. Scott pitched on the Southside for nine seasons, 1909 to 1917. He pitched in 317 career Games, made 226 Starts, with 63 Games Finished, threw 123 Complete Games, including 26 Shutouts, in 1,892 Innings Pitched, allowed 1,624 Hits, 686 Runs, 483 Earned Runs, 21 Home Runs, 609 Walks, 945 Strikeouts, posted a 107-114 record, with a 2.30 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, and 121 ERA+. Despite his skills on the mound, Scott posted just two winning seasons during his career. 

Jim Scott was a great pitcher on bad White Sox teams. (Chicago History Museum)

The best season of Scott’s career came in 1913. He pitched in 48 Games, made 38 Starts, 6 Games Finished, threw 25 Complete Games, including 4 Shutouts, 312.1 Innings Pitched, allowed 252 Hits, 96 Runs, 66 Earned Runs, 2 Home Runs, 86 Walks, 158 Strikeouts, posted a 20-21 record, with a 1.90 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, and 154 ERA+. He led the Junior Circuit in Starts and Losses. Despite a losing record it was a banner season for Scott who set career bests in Losses, Games, Starts, Complete Games, Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA+. His 1913 season remains the only season in MLB history where a pitcher lost 20 games with a sub 2.00 ERA. Scott’s efforts were recognized as he finished 14th in the MVP voting. 

Timing is everything in life. Scott helped the White Sox reach the 1917 World Series but wore a different uniform that October. Scott left the White Sox earlier in the summer, becoming one of the first players to enlist in the military during World War I. After the war, Scott returned to baseball playing for various minor league teams including the San Francisco Seals before retiring as a player. He stayed in baseball as an umpire for several seasons in the Southern League and the National League before retiring completely. 

There is no way to calculate the number of careers derailed by injuries. Unfortunately, Mark Ellis’ career was impacted by injuries. The Rapid City native played 12 seasons with four teams: Oakland Athletics (2002-2003, 2005-2011), Colorado Rockies (2011), Los Angeles Dodgers (2012-2013), and St. Louis Cardinals (2014). Ellis played college baseball for the University of Florida where he was named the MVP of the Gainesville Regional during the 1998 College World Series. He was drafted in the 9th round of the 1999 MLB Draft by the Kansas City Royals. Ellis played in 1,435 career Games, scored 690 Runs, collected 1,343 Hits, 257 Doubles, 25 Triples, 105 Home Runs, with 550 RBI, 82 Stolen Bases, drew 438 Walks, 801 Strikeouts, with a .262 BA, .327 OBP, .384 SLG, .711 OPS, and 92 OPS+. He finished eighth in the 2002 American League Rookie of the Year voting. Ellis ranked fifth all time with a .991 FLD% when he retired, playing primarily Second Base.

The best season of Ellis’ career came with the 2007 Oakland Athletics. He played in 150 Games, scored 84 Runs, collected 161 Hits, including 33 Doubles, 3 Triples, 19 Home Runs, 76 RBI, 9 Stolen Bases, with 44 Walks, 94 Strikeouts, with a .276 BA, .336 OBP, .441 SLG, .777 OPS, and 109 OPS+. He set career bests in Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, and RBI, while tying his career high in Strikeouts. On June 4, 2007, Ellis became the sixth Athletics’s player to hit for the cycle, doing so against the Boston Red Sox while batting in the eighth spot in the lineup. 

Mark Ellis’ defense was among the best ever. (Icon SMI)

Ellis played in the East Bay during the Athletic’s most recent run of success. He played in 22 Postseason Games, scored 8 Runs, collected 21 Hits, 5 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 Home Run, 5 RBI, 1 Stolen Base, 8 Walks, 20 Strikeouts, with a .253 BA, .326 OBP, .373 SLG, and .700 OPS across four series. While he never won a World Series, Ellis helped Oakland play successful October baseball. 

The Mount Rushmore State does not have a Major or Minor League team, but its baseball legacy is strong. South Dakota has produced one Hall of Famer. Sparky Anderson ranks among the greatest managers of all time, having led the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers to World Series championships. Will the Mount Rushmore State eventually send a player to Cooperstown? Time will tell. The United States of Baseball is heading south to the Volunteer State. Tennessee is next. 

DJ

Predictions Sure to Go Wrong 9.0

It is once again time for our feeble attempt at predicting the future. What will happen during the 2023 MLB season? No one knows for sure, but we offer our best guesses. If history is any guide our predictions will be horribly wrong. Wrong during the Regular Season and wrong during the Postseason. One thing we are certain of is our friend Jason is giving his predictions for the first time. Time will tell if he is any better at predicting the future than the rest of us. We like to think we have a basic understanding of baseball and the Major Leagues, but ultimately we are human and humans are biased thus we make mistakes. Our track record is poor, so trust our predictions at your own risk. 

American League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue Jays (1)Steinbrenners (2)Yankees(2)Yankees (2)Maple leafs (2)Yankees (2)Yankees (2)
Yankees (5)Devil Rays (5)Blue JaysBlue Jays (4)Yankees (4)Blue Jays (4)Blue Jays (4)
RaysCanadiansMontreal RaysOriolesDevil rays (6)OriolesRays
OriolesBean EatersRed SuxRaysBmoreRaysOrioles
Red SoxCamdenOriolesRed SoxRed SuxRed SoxRed Sox

The American League East could be a four team race. The Blue Jays and Yankees are the division favorites, but it is hard to sleep on the Rays. Tampa Bay always seems to be better than they appear. The Orioles have built a solid young team that is ready to compete with the rest of the division. Baltimore might need another year of seasoning before they threaten the Postseason, but they will begin seeing the results of their rebuild. The Red Sox will have a long Summer. Adding players like Justin Turner, do not win divisions. Boston may hang around for a while, but tickets should be cheap at Fenway by August. 

American League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Guardians (3)(Jeff) Bridges (3)GuardsWhite Sox (3)ChiSox (3)Cleveland (3)Guardians (3)
White SoxTwinkies (4)TwinksTwinsFlaming RiversTwins (5)White Sox (5)
TwinsSouthsideChisoxGuardiansTwinsRoyalsTwins (6)
TigersKittehsRoyalsTigersRawrWhite SoxTigers
RoyalsMonarchsTigresRoyalsKCTigersRoyals

Could the American League Central finally not be the worst division in baseball. None of the teams are in the World Series conversation, but several have real hopes for October. The White Sox improved by getting a new manager. Byron Buxton’s health is key in Minnesota after the Twins got Carlos Correa back after his well traveled off season. The Guardians have built a solid team around Jose Ramirez. The Tigers are trending in the right direction, but their season is focused on sending Miguel Cabrera into retirement. The Royals…well they get to play baseball too. 

Carlos Correa came back to Minnesota after an offseason of traveling the baseball world. (David Berding/ Getty Images)

American League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Mariners (2)Trashtros (1)Cheaters (1)Astros (1)Trashtros (1)Astros (1)Astros (1)
Astros(4)Halos (6)RangersAngels (5)Kraken (5)Mariners (6)Mariners
Angels (6)SubmarinersOhtanisRangers (6)RangersRangersAngels
RangersBrett MarteeenMarinersMarinersHalosAngelsRangers
AthleticsWhite ElephantsLas VegasAthleticsLas VegasOaklandAtheltics

Will the Astros finally stop winning? Doubtful. They lost Justin Verlander, but added Jose Abreu. The Mariners are back and still a great team, they should challenge Houston. Surely the Angels will put together a winning season that makes Shohei Ohtani pause before leaving in free agency. What a waste if the Angels are terrible again with Mike Trout and Ohtani healthy. The Rangers added Jacob deGrom. They have the big name pieces, now they just need to come together. What a sad way for the Athletics to spend their final season in Oakland. 

National League East

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Braves (1)Braves (2)BravesPhillies (3)Braves (1)Braves (1)Braves (2)
Mets (4)Amazins (4)MetsBraves (5)Phillies (5)Mets (5)Mets (6)
PhilliesFollies (6)PhilsMetsFishPhilliesPhillies
MarlinsFishMarlinsNationalsAmazingsMarlinsMarlins
NationalsGnatsNatsMarlinsNatsNationalsNationals

The Braves have built another dynasty. The division is theirs for the taking despite the Mets spending more money on free agents than all the gold at Fort Knox. The Mets will be great, but will they be Amazin? The Phillies caught fire at the right time last season to make an unexpected run to the World Series, they are unlikely to catch lightning in a bottle twice. The Marlins are improving, but like their other good young cores, how long will these players stay in Miami? Marlins fans are waiting for the trades to begin. The Nationals fell hard after their World Series victory and have yet to show signs of life. Washington is in for a long rebuild. 

The New York Mets paid a king’s ransom in the hope of building a World Series winning team. (Jason Vinlove/ Getty Images)

National League Central

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Cardinals (3)Redbirds (3)CardinalsCardinals (2)Uncle Tickles (3)Cardinals (4)Cardinals (1)
Brewers (6)BrewcrewCubbiesBrewersCubbiesBrewers (6)Brewers (5)
CubsHarray CarraysBeersCubsDrunksCubs WINCubs
PiratesCin CityDredsRedsTeam of catchersRedsReds
RedsBuccosPiratesPiratesPiratesPiratesPirates

The Nationals League Central is a two team race. The Cardinals never slump and even with Yadier Molina retiring they got better. The Brewers continue to play some of the best baseball in the Majors, but can they overcome St. Louis and win the division? A lot has to go right for Milwaukee to avoid the Wild Card. The Cubs have a lot of good pieces, but they are not contenders. Maybe they play .500 baseball but they need more pieces before they dream of October again. The Reds and Pirates are rebuilding. They have a few young players already in the Majors and a ton of prospects in the Minors. The team that does the best job developing that talent will be the first to return to relevance.  

National League West

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Dodgers (2)Dodger Dogs (1)PadresPadres (1)Dodgers (2)Padres (2)Dodgers (3)
Padres (5)McD’s (5)DodgersDodgers (4)Friars (4)Dodgers (3)Padres (4)
GiantsMcCovey’s CoveDbacksGiants (6)Dbacks (6)DiamondbacksGiants
DiamondbacksSnecksGiantsRockiesGiantsGiantsDiamondbacks
RockiesCoorsRockiesDiamondbacksDecisional Front OfficeColoradoRockies

The Padres try and try, but they have been unable to knock off the Dodgers. This season is no different. The Padres will be very good, but the Dodgers will be great. The Giants are trying to contend again, but they missed in free agency and the mountain is just too high to climb. The Diamondbacks have a solid core around which they should become a contender in a few seasons. Arizona needs Corbin Carroll to play up to his contract. The Rockies are a mess. Technically they are rebuilding, but what have they done to get better?

Postseason

Just get into the Postseason. If you can make it to October anything can happen. The Phillies last season are a great example. They nearly turned a disastrous season into a championship winning one. The Postseason is even more unpredictable than the Regular Season. 

American League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Guardians(Jeff) BridgesGuardsWhite SoxChiSoxClevelandGuardians
AngelsHalosTwinksRangersDevil RaysMarinersTwins
AstrosTwinkiesJaysBlue JaysYankeesBlue JaysBlue Jays
YankeesDevil RaysRangersAngelsKrakenTwinsWhite Sox

National League Wild Card

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
CardinalsRedbirdsCardsPhilliesUncle TicklesCardinalsDodgers
BrewersFolliesPhilsGiantsDbacksMetsMets
MetsAmazinsDodgersDodgersFriarsDodgersPadres
PadresMcD’sMetsBravesPhilliesBrewersBrewers

American League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue JaysTrashtrosCheatersAstrosTrashtrosAstrosAstros
AstrosTwinkiesGuardsAngelsKrakenBlue JaysBlue Jays
MarinersSteinbrennersYankeesYankeesMaple leafsYankeesYankees
Angels(Jeff) BridgesJaysWhite SoxDevil RaysClevelandGuardians

National League Divisional Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
BravesDodger DogsPadresPadresBravesBravesCardinals
PadresAmazinsCardsGiantsFriarsMetsPadres
DodgersBravesBravesCardinalsDodgersPadresBraves
CardinalsFolliesDodgersBravesDbacksDodgersDodgers

American League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Blue JaysTrashtorsCheatersAngelsMaple LeafsAstrosYankees
Mariners(Jeff) BridgesYankeesYankeesKrakenYankeesAstros

National League Championship Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
BravesAmazinsPadresPadresBravesBravesBraves
DodgersBravesBravesBravesDodgersDodgersPadres

World Series

DerekJesseJohnBernieKevinJasonThe Winning Run
Braves(Jeff) BridgesPadresYankeesKrakenAstrosBraves
Blue JaysBravesCheatersPadresBravesBravesAstros
Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves are on a path to the World Series. (Michael Reaves/ Getty Images)

Congratulations to the World Series Champion Atlanta Braves!

Time will tell if we are correct. There is plenty that can go right and wrong for a team between now and October. No matter what happens, baseball fans are in for another great season. Happy Baseball!

DJ, JJ, JB, BL, KB, & JL

Hit The Ball!

Baseball ain’t what it used to be. How many times have you heard this complaint by someone who is aggravated by the current state of the game? Baseball is forever evolving, this makes the game better over time. Not every change is good, but baseball is better today than it was in the 1890’s.  

Not every player is Hall of Famer Wee Willie Keller. In 1899 he set an unbreakable record. In 570 At Bats, Keller struck out twice. It is not unusual for players to strike out twice in a single game. Keller’s 285 At Bats per Strikeout will never be approached. In 1995, Tony Gwynn was the last player to enter the top 500, striking out once every 35.67 At Bats. Gwynn was an outlier in today’s baseball. The focus has shifted from putting the ball in play to hitting for power. The decline of the batter refusing to strikeout is accelerating. 2005 was the last time a player went a full Major League season averaging more than 20 At Bats per Strikeout. 

Placido Polanco is not a Hall of Famer. He was a slightly below average hitter, 95 OPS+, during his 16 season career. His glove was more valuable than his bat. However, in 2005 Polanco had one of the best seasons of his career. Despite a midseason trade from the Phillies to the Tigers, Polanco played in 129 Games, made 551 Plate Appearances, 501 At Bats, collected 166 Hits, 33 Walks, 25 Strikeouts, with a .331 BA, .383 OBP, .447 SLG, .830 OPS, and 120 OPS+. He put the ball in play. Polanco had a .333 BABIP, 4.5 SO%, 6.0 BB%, and sprayed the baseball to all fields; 26.1 Pull %, 53.9 Center %, and 19.9 Oppo %. Polanco posted a 20.04 AB/SO, well ahead of second place Jason Kendall’s 15.4 AB/SO and light years ahead of the league average 5.4 AB/SO. 

Placido Polanco knew his value with the bat was avoiding strikeouts. (Hunter Martin/ Getty Images)

Polanco hit against both leagues after Philadelphia traded him to Detroit on June 8, 2005 for Ramon Martinez and Ugueth Urbina. He played 59 games for the Phillies and 70 for the Tigers. Polanco struckout in only 20 games, 15.5% of games played. He struck out once in 15 games and twice in five. He struck out in back to back games three times. Polanco went 12 games between strikeouts five times. His longest streak without a strikeout was 19 games and 70 At Bats. He played in 109 games without a strikeout. 

About those two strikeout games, Polanco struckout in back to back At Bats in four of his five two strikeout games. He whiffed twice on May 20th and 21st vs the Orioles. After joining the Tigers he struck out twice against CC Sabathia on August 5th vs the Indians and against Cliff Lee on August 31st vs Indians. Baltimore and Cleveland were the only teams that could fool Polanco.  

Polanco’s season was not the result of manipulation. He qualified for the batting title. Polanco finished second, .004 behind Derrek Lee for the best Batting Average in baseball. A player must have 3.1 Plate Appearances per game for 162 games to qualify for the batting title. Polanco needed 502 Plate Appearances to qualify, he had 551. He did not lead either league in a statistical category, nor was he an All Star. The Phillies finished second in the National League East without Polanco and the Tigers finished fourth in the American League Central with him. A great season was easily overlooked. 

How impressive was Polanco’s 2005 season? Only Tommy La Stella’s 16.33 AB/SO in the 2020 Covid shortened season has topped 15.00 in the last decade. La Stella was an outlier in 2020, as DJ LeMahieu was second with 9.29 AB/SO. The balance of power shifted to the pitchers after the Steroid Era. Domination on the mound has made multiple strikeout games common. The rule changes MLB put in place for the 2023 season aims to reduce some of the pitching dominance. Time will tell if Placido Polanco is the last Major Leaguer to have a 20.00 AB/SO in a season. 

DJ