Under the original playoff system the best team in each league met in the World Series. If that system were still in place the pennant race in both leagues would be nearly over. The Houston Astros lead the American League by 6 games and the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the National League by 12.5 games. It is early August. The rest of the season would be rather boring unless at least one of these teams takes a nosedive. Barring the unthinkable, it would almost seem like a waste to wait until October to play the World Series. Houston and Los Angeles have demonstrated their dominance over their respective leagues during the first two-thirds of the season.
Thankfully baseball no longer goes straight from the regular season to the World Series. Instead a potential snooze fest of a season is shaping up to be an exciting stretch run. The Red Sox and Indians lead their respective divisions, with the Yankees, Twins, Royals, Rays, Mariners, Angels, Orioles, Rangers, and Blue Jays within five games of either their divisional lead or a Wild Card spot in the American League. In the National League, the Cubs and Nationals lead their divisions with the Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Rockies, and Diamondbacks within five games of their division lead or a Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers hope to celebrate a World Series victory in October. (Noel M. Vasquez/ Getty Images)
Baseball is better when 18 teams are in the running for the playoffs, not just two- exciting playoff races are one way to grow the game.
One of the critics of each playoff expansion, from Championship Series to Divisional Series to Wild Card, has been that the best team in baseball does not always win the World Series. No doubt this is true. The Braves of the 1990’s should have won more than just one World Series. The Indians of that era should have at least one World Series title to their credit. Meanwhile, the Miami (Florida) Marlins won two World Series, both times as the National League Wild Card.
Sandy Alomar and the Indians were the better team during the regular season, but came up short in the World Series. (www.si.com)
In many ways this unpredictability in the World Series is good for baseball. Think of the billions of dollars the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox have spent over the last decade to win four world Series between them. Large payrolls don’t guarantee World Series victories, nor does a World Series title guarantee success the next season as the Red Sox can attest. In basketball, it’s an easy bet that any team with LeBron James will play in the NBA Finals. In football, the Patriots are usually a solid choice as long as Tom Brady is healthy. It does not work that way in baseball. If it did every World Series would be Mike Trout and the Angels and/or Bryce Harper and the Nationals. How many World Series appearances do they have combined? Zero.
18 of the 30 Major League teams still have at least an outside shot at the playoffs. Are some teams delusional about their chances and were buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline? Absolutely. However, baseball as a whole benefits when the majority of teams are still playing hard with two months to go instead of rolling over and waiting for next year. The Astros and Dodgers should play each other in the World Series, but like most things in life and baseball this is not guaranteed.
I miss Vin Scully.
I am not a die hard Dodger fan. I have only been to Los Angeles and Dodger Stadium once. I was attending my now wife’s cousin’s wedding in Oxnard and as part of the trip we went to Dodger Stadium for a game. Even then I went to the game more to see the stadium than the team. The Dodgers pummeled the Phillies and we got to experience the most annoying Phillies fan on the West Coast.
The most annoying Phillies fan on the West Coast. Philadelphia was losing 6-0 in the 2nd inning at this point. (The Winning Run/ KCL)
My primary love for the Dodgers is Vin Scully. In recent years, I always enjoyed listening to the broadcast when Los Angeles were at home so that I could listen to the voice of baseball. It never mattered what the score was, I just wanted to listen to the stories. The history of the foul pole, the rise in popularity of beards on ball players, or anecdotes about some player who has not played a game in decades. Yes, please, and thank you. There was no need for a partner, Vin Scully could do it all. He could call the game, debate controversial calls, supply the history of almost anything going on, and provide endless entertainment and information.
I have tried to watch a few Dodger games this season, but Charlie Steiner, Rick Monday, Joe Davies, Nomar Garciaparra, and Orel Hershiser just are not Vin Scully. It is unfair to compare these broadcasters to the greatest of all time. Steiner and Davies are professional, they earned the opportunity to call games in the Majors. Monday, Garciaparra, and Hershiser bring their playing experience and expertise to the booth. In some ways it may be better with this new group of Dodger broadcasters, but the retirement of Vin Scully leaves something missing from every Dodger home game.
I have never met Vin Scully, doubt I ever will. The closest I will probably ever get was sitting in the outfield bleachers that day, straining my eyes to see if I could see the voice of baseball in his broadcast booth calling the game. Watching a master ply their craft allows you a look inside a world where greatness is the norm. I wanted to watch.
The score never mattered, it was about spending time with my buddy, Mr. Scully. (Jean Fruth/ National Baseball Hall of Fame)
My now sister-in-law went to the game with us and asked me why I kept straining to see the press boxes. My now wife told her it was because I was trying to see my buddy, Vince Gulley. I should explain. When I started dating my wife five years ago she knew the bare minimum about baseball. She has learned more than she ever wanted to, mostly through exhaustion and/or osmosis. Even now she can only name a handful of announcers. Marty Brennaman, mostly because she is from and we live in Cincinnati. Harry Caray, Skip Caray, and Chip Caray because my love for the Atlanta Braves, and thus the connection of the Caray family. She knows Joe Buck, but she has a physical reaction at the mere mention of his name, that turns even more sour if he is “announcing” a baseball or football game. It took some time but she now knows Vin Scully. For several years she did not understand how to pronounce his name and thought I was saying Vince Gulley. The many late nights I have stayed up late just watching a Dodgers game after a long day of work she began calling him my buddy.
Vin Scully as my buddy is an easy visualization. Listening to him call a game was like watching a game with a friend and just talking about what was happening and anything else that came up along the way. Maybe it was about the game on the field, or maybe it was just something that came to mind. It did not matter what it was, listening to Vin Scully was always a pleasure. The game on the field was central, but not necessarily required for the time spent between Vin Scully and his friends to be quality time. He knew when to talk and when to just let the sounds of the game flow over you and transport you to Dodger Stadium.
I miss Vin Scully. I am glad I was able to spend so many late nights and sunny Sunday afternoons with him. I am also glad he was able to leave the game at a time and in a fashion that suited him. There is a certain justice in seeing the greatest of all time walk away at a time and place of their own choosing, not when age, injury, or declining ability force them out. During his farewell address to Congress, General Douglas MacArthur said, “old generals don’t die, they just fade away.” Vin Scully was never a general, but his retirement has allowed him to fade away, just the like sun on a baseball diamond where for so many decades he called the game.
If the New York Mets had a team motto for the 2017 season it would something like, “Finishing what you started and start what you want to finish.” 47 games, almost 30% of the season, could determine if the other 115 games matter in Queens.
The Mets schedule has them playing against only National League East opponents until May 8th when the Giants come to Flushing. The NL East can be shaped by how well the Mets come out of the gate. A great start to the season would mean the rest of the East has to beat up on each other while the Mets sit back and watch. It is hard to catch up with a team when you are not playing them. A terrible start could mean it is the Mets who are struggling to play catch up all summer.
A good start and finish could see Queens celebrating late into October. (NewsDay/ Thomas A. Ferrara)
Even if the Mets are unable to run away with the East with a successful beginning of the season, so long as they remain close they will have the opportunity to catch up at the end of the season. The final 15 games of the Mets’ season is against only NL East opponents. If the Nationals, the expected winner, have not clinched the Division, the 3 game series in Queens starting on September 22nd could decide who wins the National League East in 2017.
In 2016, the Mets began the 2016 season 20-12 (0.625) through their first 32 games and finished the season 9-6 (0.600) in their last 15 games. The Nationals also began the 2016 season 20-12 through the first 32 games, but finished 7-8 (0.467) over their last 15 games. This 2 game difference could be reduced to 8 season games that eventually led to the Nationals winning the East. Washington went 7-3 in the last 10 games before they clinched the division and began resting players for the playoffs. The Nationals were playing well when they secured their playoff spot, and then let off the game and coasted through the finish line.
The Mets could be the smacked in the face by their own play by the end of the season. (www.mlb.com)
Injuries happen to every team, so it is hard to justify a team coming up short based solely on an injury to a single player or a select group of players. The easiest way for the Mets to win the East is to play better against the Nationals and the Braves. In 2016 the Mets were 7-12 against Washington and 9-10 against the Braves. The Mets should have a winning record against the Braves and at least play .500 against the Nationals. This is a three game swing in the wins column, reducing the Nationals lead down to five games. New York went 12-7 against both the Phillies and the Marlins and needs to do so again this season. Good teams beat up on the teams they are better than in an effort to stockpile victories.
The Mets are off to an 8-11 start, wins and loses through 19 games this season. Their first 32 games and their last 15 games, roughly 30% of the season will loom large as to the success or failure of the 2017 season in Flushings. The Mets can put pressure on the National League East from the beginning or dig themselves into a whole that could be nearly impossible to get out of. If the Mets hope to finish what they start this season, they must start what they want to finish at the beginning of the season.
Let’s try this again. For the fourth year in a row The Winning Run will try in vain to accurately predict what will happen during the 2017 Major League Baseball season. We do this knowing that we are terrible at this, yet it is still fun to try. The only thing that we can guarantee about our predictions are that they are wrong and the actual season will be better than the season we predicted. Thanks to Bernie for his commentary on each team.
We realize that the season has already begun and that we are late to the party. There is a good reason for this. We were all attending Derek’s wedding with Jesse as the Best Man, Bernie as a groomsman, and John as an usher. Sorry about the delay, life got busy. And so, here are our predictions for the 2017 season.
|1st||Washington Nationals||New York Muttz||Washington Nationals||Washington Nationals|
|2nd||New York Mets*||Washington Gnats||Atlanta Braves||New York Mets|
|3rd||Miami Marlins||Atlanta Bravos||New York Mets||Miami Marlins|
|4th||Atlanta Braves||Miami Fish||Miami Marlins||Atlanta Braves|
|5th||Philadelphia Phillies||Philadelphia Follies||Philadelphia Phillies||Philadelphia Phillies|
Washington Nationals – These guys are like Peyton Manning. Great in the regular season but can’t seem to navigate the playoffs. Will they capture hardware this year? I won’t hold my breath. Bryce Harper is pretty much a force of nature in the game but more like a tornado in that the damage is only done if you get in the way.
New York Mets – I’m torn about putting them further down the list. Why? Because of another f-ing football player – Tim Tebow. With arguably the best rotation in the league and young bats that are finding their stride, these guys only get in their own way. If they could borrow some of the “No F@#$s Given” attitude of their crosstown rivals, I’d put them in the NLCS without hesitation. If there’s even a whisper of Tebow getting called up after the All-Star Break, write these guys off.
Miami Marlins – Stanton looked good in the WBC. The team met with considerable tragedies last season. Even if they get it together and settled this year, they’re a couple seasons away from elbowing out the Mets and the Nationals.
Atlanta Braves – The Braves are rebuilding with some interesting young talent. Dansby Swanson is really just the icing on the cake. Big Sexy, Bartolo Colon, is just fun to watch as he continues trucking along as if he were decades younger. Hopefully, he’ll share his experience in a way that keeps the young guys on track and out of trouble. It’s still a long way from seeing them place higher in the division.
Philadelphia Phillies – There are few franchises that I can think of that are more poorly managed from the front office on down. Did I bother to look up anything on their off-season? Why bother?
Bartolo Colon brings his power bat and arm to Atlanta, can Big Sexy hit career home run #2 for the Braves. (www.mlb.com)
|1st||Chicago Cubs||Chicago Harry Caray’s||Chicago Cubs||Chicago Cubs|
|2nd||Pittsburgh Pirates||Pittsburgh Buckos*||St. Louis Cardinals*||St. Louis Cardinals*|
|3rd||St. Louis Cardinals||Cincinnati Fighting Vottos||Pittsburgh Pirates||Milwaukee Brewers|
|4th||Milwaukee Brewers||St. Louis Dreadbirds||Milwaukee Brewers||Pittsburgh Pirates|
|5th||Cincinnati Reds||Milwaukee Brewniversity||Cincinnati Reds||Cincinnati Reds|
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs have to get the nod for being the World Series Champs but especially so because the win came on the backs of a core group of young talent in Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell. Javier Baez continues to amaze with his acrobatic defense and it’s getting more refined. Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks are the only guys on the rotation I’d trust to finish the season strong but that may be all they need to go deep in the playoffs.
St. Louis Cardinals – I’m now more convinced than ever that Yadier Molina is a cyborg. I keep thinking they’re too old to keep up and I’m looking like a fool as they pull out wins. What’s also got me intrigued this season is the new roster of incoming talent with guys like Alex Reyes (before he needed Tommy John surgery) and Luke Weaver. They’re rebuilding while still competing for the playoffs. That deserves a lot of respect.
Milwaukee Brewers – I think they’re trying to follow the Cardinals’ example of rebuilding without demolishing. For some odd reason, I have a feeling Junior Guerra will have a great season. I don’t put a lot of stock into spring training except to see how individuals spent their offseason getting ready but they’re looking pretty good.
Pittsburgh Pirates – I’ve been high on them in the past. I think I need to sober up. Aside from their all-star outfield, I’m not sure there’s a lot else to be hopeful about.
Cincinnati Reds – They’re rebuilding. I don’t think they’ll be the worst but this division may be the overall best division in all of MLB. Finishing last in the Central but maybe 10th in the National League.
|1st||Los Angeles Dodgers||Colorado Silver Bullets||Los Angeles Dodgers||San Francisco Giants|
|2nd||San Francisco Giants*||Los Angeles Vin Scullys*||Colorado Rockies*||Los Angeles Dodgers*|
|3rd||Colorado Rockies||San Padres Big Macs||San Francisco Giants||Colorado Rockies|
|4th||Arizona Diamondbacks||Arizona Trouser Snakes||Arizona Diamondbacks||Arizona Diamondbacks|
|5th||San Diego Padres||San Francisco Gigantors||San Diego Padres||San Diego Padres|
San Francisco Giants – Cueto and Samardzija still have enough in the tank which makes this the best rotation in this division. Melancon is a solid closer addition to anchor a bullpen. The talent on this roster is well-experienced but not fighting the twilight of their careers.
Los Angeles Dodgers – These guys caught lightning in a bottle. Seager is my pick to take MVP this season. But there’s some age on this team that’s probably going to show. It’s not just tarnish, it might be rust. I’m not sold on Joc Pederson. Though he’s shown some moments of pure brilliance, it’s too streaky.
Colorado Rockies – If Trevor Story stays healthy this team may be knocking on the Dodgers door…wait, no pitching. Nevermind. Arizona might catch them by surprise.
San Diego Padres – This team may have better luck if they spent some time with the real life versions of their mascot.
The Diamondbacks and Paul Goldschmidt could be a surprise in the NL West. (Ezra Shaw)
|1st||Boston Red Sox||Toronto Canucks||Boston Red Sox||Boston Red Sox|
|2nd||Toronto Blue Jays*||New York Spankees||New York Yankees*||New York Yankees*|
|3rd||New York Yankees||Baltimore Riots||Toronto Blue Jays||Baltimore Orioles*|
|4th||Baltimore Orioles||Steve Irwin Killers||Tampa Bay Rays||Toronto Blue Jays|
|5th||Tampa Bay Rays||Boston Dead Sux||Baltimore Orioles||Tampa Bay Rays|
Boston Red Sox – Getting Chris Sale indicates the Boston Red Sox want to win now. With Price in the pipeline, they might have a slow start to the season but this is probably the most formidable American League rotation this season. There’s plenty of hitting available in the lineup without Benintendi. So he’s just icing on the cake. Blech.
New York Yankees – I think it’s safe to say that Tanaka is a bonafide ace. I’ve heard that Sabathia may have finally perfected another pitch and developed the sort of patience necessary for an arm that’s lost some heat. They got some bats to hopefully keep them in games late so that they can show off what may be one of the top 5 bullpens in the league.
Baltimore Orioles – Manny Machado is a man amongst boys and it’s often forgotten how young he is. Adam Jones is still a force to be reckoned with. This is a roster that’s really good up and down but what I think puts them in third place is that there’s more potential firepower in the rotation and lineup than…
Toronto Blue Jays – Probably the most balanced team in all of major league baseball. Yet, the underachieving in the playoffs is problematic for me. I think this is the year where it’s going to catch up to them this season.
Chris Sale changed his sox and could make Boston untouchable in the East. (www.si.com)
|1st||Cleveland Indians||Kansas City Monarchs||Cleveland Indians||Cleveland Indians|
|2nd||Detroit Tigers||Cleveland Up Three Games To None*||Detroit Tigers||Kansas City Royals|
|3rd||Kansas City Royals||Chicago Black Sox||Minnesota Twins||Detroit Tigers|
|4th||Minnesota Twins||Minnesota Twinkies||Kansas City Royals||Minnesota Twins|
|5th||Chicago White Sox||Detroit Militarized Zone||Chicago White Sox||Chicago White Sox|
Cleveland Indians – These guys didn’t get into the World Series because they were built on foundation of well-experienced and stalwart veteran stars. This is a dynamic team with a creative manager. 2017 is a reloading, not refurbishing, year.
Kansas City Royals – Something didn’t click in 2016 but this is a well-balanced team. The departure of Wade Davis and Edinson Volquez is troublesome but they added some bats to increase their hitting production. Danny Duffy is an exciting talent that is screaming elite ace but let’s hold judgement until we see how he navigates the season.
Detroit Tigers – A veteran team with the closest thing to Murderers’ Row in the AL. If Verlander bounces back quickly they should be considered higher but, aside from Zimmermann, the rotation is unexciting. K-Rod had a great 2016 season but this doesn’t seem to be a bullpen that can truly shorten games. It’s feast or famine with the Tigers this year.
Minnesota Twins – They circled the wagons a bit with their lineup but it’s a solid core group. There’s an interesting variety in the rotation but that’s all that can be said about their pitching.
Chicago White Sox – New manager and a great prospect. But at what cost? Sorry, but the departure of Sale and Eaton leaves a lot to be desired.
|1st||Houston Astros||The Acute Angles of Anaheim||Seattle Mariners||Houston Astros|
|2nd||Seattle Mariners*||Houston Colt 45s*||Houston Astros*||Seattle Mariners|
|3rd||Texas Rangers||Oakland White Elephants||Texas Rangers||Texas Rangers|
|4th||Los Angeles Angels||Texas Dangers||Los Angeles Angels||Los Angeles Angels|
|5th||Oakland Athletics||Seattle Seamen||Oakland Athletics||Oakland Athletics|
Houston Astros – Reddick, Aoki, and Beltran…the Astros built up one of the more enviable lineups in the American League. This should take the pressure off an ERA heavy rotation that can usually pitch deep into games. Gregerson and Giles is a great 1-2 punch in the bullpen.
Seattle Mariners – This remodeling seems to be going along well. Edwin Diaz looked good in the World Baseball Classic with some nasty late movement in his off-speed pitches. But still not sure the Mariners pitching can consistently give the lineup 8 innings to get to him. This lineup looks good though so opposing pitchers may have trouble getting around Cruz and Cano.
Texas Rangers – These guys finished first last season and are getting what should be a healthy Yu Darvish. But I’m not sold that the departure of Desmond, Beltran, and Moreland was properly accounted for in their hitting lineup.
Los Angeles Angels – Having the best player in baseball shouldn’t make a team complacent. But that’s what we have here. The addition of Cameron Maybin brings some good lumber to the yard but the rotation is iffy and the bullpen is in shambles.
Oakland Athletics – These guys may need a new training staff. To say the pitching staff is a stone’s throw away from triage belies the fact that it’s a stone thrown by my four year-old godson.
Robinson Cano and the Mariners should be tough to handle with solid pitching and hitting. (Troy Taormina- USA TODAY Sports)
My season picks were more serious than these. This is more about what I would like to see happen and what I think would make a great storyline for the game. (The number following indicates games won in the series)
NL Wild Card (previously indicated by a * in the season ranking predictions)
|Winner||San Francisco Giants||Pittsburgh Buckos||Colorado Rockies||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|Loser||New York Mets||Los Angeles Vin Scullys||St. Louis Cardinals||St. Louis Cardinals|
Al Wild Card (previously indicated by a * in the season ranking predictions)
|Winner||Seattle Mariners||Cleveland Up Three Games To None||Houston Astros||New York Yankees|
|Loser||Toronto Blue Jays||Houston Colt 45s||New York Yankees||Baltimore Orioles|
|Winner (1-4)||Washington Nationals||Colorado Silver Bullets||Washington Nationals||Los Angeles Dodgers – 3|
|Loser (1-4)||San Francisco Giants||Pittsburgh Buckos||Colorado Rockies||Chicago Cubs – 2|
|Winner (2-3)||Chicago Cubs||New York Muttz||Chicago Cubs||San Francisco Giants – 3|
|Loser (2-3)||Los Angeles Dodgers||Chicago Harry Caray’s||Los Angeles Dodgers||Washington Nationals – 1|
|Winner (1-4)||Boston Red Sox||Kansas City Monarchs||Cleveland Indians||New York Yankees – 3|
|Loser (1-4)||Seattle Mariners||Cleveland Up Three Games To None||Houston Astros||Cleveland Indians – 2|
|Winner (2-3)||Cleveland Indians||The Acute Angles of Anaheim||Seattle Marines||Boston Red Sox – 3|
|Loser (2-3)||Houston Astros||Toronto Canucks||Boston Red Sox||Houston Astros – 2|
|Winner||Washington Nationals||Colorado Silver Bullets||Washington Nationals||San Francisco Giants – 4|
|Loser||Chicago Cubs||New York Muttz||Chicago Cubs||Los Angeles Dodgers – 3|
|Winner||Cleveland Indians||Kansas City Monarchs||Seattle Mariners||New York Yankees – 4|
|Loser||Boston Red Sox||The Acute Angles of Anaheim||Boston Red Sox||Boston Red Sox – 2|
Who will celebrate in October in 2017? (Brian Cassella/ Chicago Tribune)
|Winner||Washington Nationals – 4||Colorado Silver Bullets – 4||Seattle Mariners – 4||New York Yankees – 4|
|Loser||Boston Red Sox – 3||Kansas City Monarchs – 2||Washington Nationals – 2||San Francisco Giants – 3|
Time will tell if any of our predictions are correct. This is our fourth year doing this and we still are horrible at making predictions. So don’t blame us if we are wrong, we warned you. Just remember, baseball makes it better.
DJ, JJ, JB, and BL
Before predicting what will happen during the 2017 Major League season, let’s take a look back at The Winning Run’s predictions for the 2016 season. Once again we did a terrible job of guessing the final standings and playoffs. We are terrible at predictions, but we are consistent at our terribleness. So without further ado, a look back at our sad attempt at predicting the 2016 Major League season.
National League East
|1||New York Mets||Washington Nationals|
|2||Washington Nationals||New York Mets|
|3||Miami Marlins||Miami Marlins|
|4||Atlanta Braves||Philadelphia Phillies|
|5||Philadelphia Phillies||Atlanta Braves|
The death of Jose Fernandez was a shocking reminder that baseball is just a game. (Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
National League Central
|1||Chicago Cubs||Chicago Cubs|
|2||Pittsburgh Pirates||St. Louis Cardinals|
|3||St. Louis Cardinals||Pittsburgh Pirates|
|4||Cincinnati Reds||Milwaukee Brewers|
|5||Milwaukee Brewers||Cincinnati Reds|
National League West
|1||Los Angeles Dodgers||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|2||San Francisco Giants||San Francisco Giants|
|3||Arizona Diamondbacks||Colorado Rockies|
|4||San Diego Padres||Arizona Diamondbacks|
|5||Colorado Rockies||San Diego Padres|
American League East
|1||Toronto Blue Jays||Boston Red Sox|
|2||New York Yankees||Baltimore Orioles|
|3||Boston Red Sox||Toronto Blue Jays|
|4||Baltimore Orioles||New York Yankees|
|5||Tampa Bay Rays||Tampa Bay Rays|
American League Central
|1||Kansas City Royals||Cleveland Indians|
|2||Cleveland Indians||Detroit Tigers|
|3||Detroit Tigers||Kansas City Royals|
|4||Minnesota Twins||Chicago White Sox|
|5||Chicago White Sox||Minnesota Twins|
In 2016, not every team could take a punch from the competition. (AP Photo/CSM/Albert Pena)
American League West
|1||Houston Astros||Texas Rangers|
|2||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim||Seattle Mariners|
|3||Texas Rangers||Houston Astros|
|4||Seattle Mariners||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim|
|5||Oakland Athletics||Oakland Athletics|
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Cleveland Indians||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim||Toronto Blue Jays||Baltimore Orioles|
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||San Francisco Giants||San Francisco Giants||New York Mets|
Francisco Lindor and the Indians came so close to a World Series Championship, but Cleveland will have to wait at least one more season. (Jason Miller/ Getty Images)
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Toronto Blue Jays||Cleveland Indians||Toronto Blue Jays||Texas Rangers|
|Houston Astros||Kansas City Royals||Cleveland Indians||Boston Red Sox|
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Chicago Cubs||Pittsburgh Pirates||Chicago Cubs||San Francisco Giants|
|New York Mets||Los Angeles Dodgers||Los Angeles Dodgers||Washington Nationals|
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Toronto Blue Jays||Houston Astros||Cleveland Indians||Toronto Blue Jays|
|Predicted Winner||Predicted Loser||Actual Winner||Actual Loser|
|Chicago Cubs||New York Mets||Chicago Cubs||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|Games Won||Prediction||Games Won||Actual|
|4 Games||Houston Astros||4 Games||Chicago Cubs|
|2 Games||Chicago Cubs||3 Games||Cleveland Indians|
We did not get much right, but we did correctly predict six teams in their final standings, five playoff teams, and two Divisional Series Winners, and the National League Championship winner. Our predictions were not as accurate as in the 2015 final standings, but we found greater success in the playoffs. The playoffs are where it really matters, right?
The Cubs are World Series Champions. (Ezra Shaw/ Getty Images)
Predicting the final standings for the regular season is not an easy task. Our predictions in 2015 (11 of 30 correct) were much higher than our average, so it came as no surprise that in 2016 our predictions fell back to earth. We were correct that the Miami Marlins would finish third in the National League East, ahead of the rebuilding Braves and Phillies but well behind the Nationals and Mets. The Cubs were the easy pick to win the National League Central, far outpacing the rest of the division.The National League West was a two team race from the beginning, but we were correct that the Dodgers would out last the Giants over the course of the season. Finally we were correct in predicting the American League East would leave the Rays behind and the American League West would leave the Athletics behind as both teams finished last in their division.
Our predictions in the playoffs were much better in 2016. There are ten playoff spots, we selected half the teams before the season began. The Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants all made the playoffs, but despite having half the teams in the playoffs correct, we did not do a great job of predicting what they would do once they made it to October. We were correct in predicting the Toronto Blue Jays would win the American League Divisional Series. We correctly predicted the Chicago Cubs would win the National League pennant, although we felt they were not yet ready to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Opps.
The 2016 Major League season was not what we predicted it would be; it was better. No matter how careful we are in making our predictions, we will be wrong more often than we are right; such is baseball. Every season has its memories, for the Cubs it was finally winning the World Series after waiting more than a century. The Reds, Braves, Twins, Athletics, and other continued to rebuild. Every team is trying to get better, but not matter what baseball is unpredictable. We hope we are better at predicting the 2017 season than we were the 2016 season. However, there are only three guarantees that we can make: 1) baseball is unpredictable, 2) our predictions will turn out to be horribly wrong, 3) baseball makes everything better.
DJ, JJ, JB, and BL
Winter is the time for moving in baseball. Players, from the most sought after free agent to career minor leaguers, move from team to team. Most players only make one move over the Winter, but this offseason has been particularly eventful for two players. Tyrell Jenkins and David Rollins have moved multiple times since the end of the baseball season, not through signing new contracts but through trades and waivers. Both players could interpret this as either as multiple teams not seeing their future potential or as multiple teams seeing them as a valuable part of their teams’ success.
Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
Tyrell Jenkins has been a member of four different baseball organizations since he was drafted 50th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. He rose to Advanced A ball before he was traded to the Atlanta Braves with Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden on November 17, 2014. Jenkins made his Major League debut on June 22, 2016 for Atlanta. He pitched in 16 games for the 2016 Braves going 2-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.692 WHIP.
Tyrell Jenkins worked his way through the Braves farm system, time will tell if he can contribute to the rebuilding Reds. (www.milb.com)
Jenkins will turn 25 during the 2017 season and could become a valuable asset. This is why beginning on December 8th, Jenkins began his offseason odyssey. He was traded to the Texas Rangers with Brady Feigl for Luke Jackson. Two weeks later, the Rangers designated Jenkins for assignment. On December 23, 2016 the Cincinnati Reds claimed Jenkins off waivers.
In under a month Jenkins saw his role change several times. He was pitching for a Braves team looking to rebuild then on to the Rangers who will be looking to repeat as the American League West Champions, contending for a World Series. Jenkins’ fortunes turned again as he was claimed off waivers by a Reds team that is rebuilding in the tough National League Central. A new, new home could help Tyrell Jenkins become a main stay in the Majors. Time will tell if Jenkins will find lasting success in Cincinnati.
David Rollins, LHP
When comparing offseasons no one can keep up with David Rollins. Originally drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 24th round of the 2011 draft, Rollins rose to low A ball in just over a year with the Blue Jays organization before he was on the move. On July 20, 2012, Toronto traded Rollins, Kevin Comer, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joseph Musgrove, Carlos Perez and Asher Wojciechowski to the Houston Astros for David Carpenter, J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon. After rising to AAA in a season and a half with the Astros, Rollins changed teams again when he was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the Rule 5 Draft.
This brought David Rollins to this offseason. Beginning on November 18th Rollins began his tour through baseball. The Mariners designated Rollins for assignment, and he was selected off waivers by the Chicago Cubs. He lasted with the Cubs for four days before he was claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. Ten days later Rollins left Texas when he was claimed off waivers by the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies held on to Rollins for almost three weeks. On December 21st, the Rangers again claimed Rollins off of waivers, returning to Texas from the Phillies. Two days later the Rangers again placed Rollins on waivers and the Cubs claimed him off waivers.
David Rollins is a man with many team this off season. (Getty Images/ Rob Leiter)
Rollins was claimed off waived five times in a little over a month. After pitching in just 31 career games in over two seasons, many teams seem to believe Rollins has a future in the Majors. Returning to two teams he was previously claimed off waivers by shows that Rollins’ career 7.60 ERA in the Majors does not reflect the talent that multiple teams believe he has. Putting a player on waivers clearly means a team has other players it values more. However, it does not mean an organization has given up on a player.
The movement of every player during the offseason is not always front page newsworthy. The signing of Edwin Encarnacion by the Indians made headlines. The rumors of where Mark Trumbo will land makes news even without a signed contract. The trading of Tyrell Jenkins or the claiming of David Rollins off waivers does make news, but only a footnote, not front page headlines. Changing teams has a huge impact upon players and their families, but often it is barely a blip on our collective radar. The offseason can be a time of boredom and loneliness for fans, but for players it can alter their lives and careers. Every line inside the transactions box at the back of the newspaper is someone’s life and career. It might not matter to you, but it matters to them. Winter is moving season in baseball. The action is not on the field, it is in the moving vans.
The 2013 MLB All-Star Game was hosted by the New York Mets. Despite working in New York I could not attend the festivities (Bernie did though and one of our mutual friends got to attend the game because of a promotion at the Fan Fest). The 2015 MLB All-Star Game was hosted by the Cincinnati Reds, but I could not attend as I moved to Cincinnati about a week after the festivities ended. However, 2016 is the year I finally made it to the All Star Game, not in San Diego but the South Atlantic League Single A All-Star Game hosted by the Lexington Legends. Not what you may have expected.
Great seats for a great game. (The Winning Run/ DJ)
Obviously these players are not household names, but I recognized a few of them. Luke Dykstra, son of Lenny Dykstra, plays for the Rome Braves. Mariano Rivera Jr., son of Mariano Rivera, plays for Hagerstown Suns. Tate Matheny, son of Mike Matheny, plays for the Greenville Drive. Every player selected to this All Star game has a ways to go before leaving a lasting legacy on the game.
The game itself produced some great baseball. Diving catches, beautifully played ground balls, and excellent pitching. The game featured 22 strikeouts, 11 for each team. Each of the 15 pitchers who pitched a complete inning had at least one strike out, with Jake Cosart of the Greenville Drive striking out the side during his inning of work. The game itself was fun and the players and fans were clearly enjoying the experience. The weather was perfect for the 8,126 fans who watched a crisp game played in under two and a half hours. The casual fun that has always characterized minor league baseball meant wacky promotions and being able to sit close to the field. It gives a sense of closeness and intimacy in contrast to attending a Major League game that has an air of reverence. Sort of like comparing your friend’s backyard barbeque to corporate sponsored tailgate. Both are fun but feel radically different.
A beautiful night for baseball at Whitaker Bank Ballpark. (The Winning Run/DJ)
P.J. Colon of the Columbia Fireflies started for the South team. Colon was born in Belfast, Northern Ireland and grew up in California. There are not many baseball players to come from Europe, much less Northern Ireland, so those who do are key to continuing the international growth of the game. Opposing Colon was the North team’s starter, Mitch Keller of the West Virginia Power. Keller would earn the victory and Colon would receive the loss as Max Schrock of the Hagerstown Suns drove in the first of his two RBI during the first inning. Schrock won the MVP award by finishing the game 2 for 3, with 2 RBI and a double.
Baseball is better with family, especially the soon to be sister-in-law. (The Winning Run/ KCL)
Baseball can be a fickle sport. Most likely not every player on the field during the All Star game will reach the Major Leagues. Seeing talent that is making its way through the Minor Leagues towards MLB is exciting. Although these players are still developing, you can already see how they will help propel the game forward. The next great star is not simple to spot, but on that field were the potential MLB All Star players of the future who will delight fans for years to come. I have seen the future of baseball, and it is good.