The first few days of the baseball off-season do not feel strange. It is when the off season turns into weeks that the absence of the game becomes more noticeable. Yearning for baseball is good. Missing something you love is natural.
My love for baseball borders on obsessive. After umpiring games all weekend I listen to the Reds on the radio while driving home only to watch a baseball game, or two, from the comfort my the couch. The end of the season, and time change, makes me sad. While my body needs a break from the grind of umpiring, the sudden stop of the game is jolting. What do I do with all this free time?
The snow has not begun falling yet, but it will soon. Baseball is taking a short break. (Kurt Wilson/ Missoulian)
As the trio of Yankee fans, John, Bernie, and Kevin, recover from the Red Sox winning the World Series, we are also waiting for free agency to begin in earnest. Where will the big free agents land. Will Bryce Harper put on pinstripes? Did Manny Machado cost himself millions by not hustling in the Playoffs? Who will Craig Kimbrel close games for next season? Is Adrian Beltre’s next stop Cooperstown? Who rewards World Series MVP Steve Pearce for his efforts in October? Are there enough interested teams to drive up the market for Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin? Do teams believe Josh Donaldson and A.J. Pollock are part of a winning strategy? Is a team willing to sign Big Sexy, Bartolo Colon? Will the Mets new General Manager, Brodie Van Wagenen, continue the Queens tradition of overpaying players past their prime?
Once the cold settles in for its yearly stay winter begins to drag. Each free agent signing is dissected to the fullest. The itch for the game will return in earnest when the calendar turns to 2019. Allowing some distance between yourself and what you love is good from time to time. It is better to miss something or someone than to wish they were not around. I miss you baseball. A small break to rest my body from umpiring and to catch up on sleep from the World Series are good things. Enjoy your time away baseball, but please hurry back.
It seems like only yesterday the Mets were poised to have a scary starting rotation for years to come. A rotation rivaling the Braves’ rotation in the 1990’s which had three Hall of Fame pitchers coming at you night after night. The future of the Amazings had Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom. This rotation would dominate the division and baseball for years to come. Yeah…about that. The Dark Knight was banished from Gotham and is now pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, and even the Reds are beginning to discuss trading high on Matt Harvey before he crashes again. Noah Syndergaard has not pitched since before Memorial Day due to injury. Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler are having forgettable seasons and rumors are swirling about one or both leaving Queens. Neither would yield a huge return, but the Mets may be more concerned about getting something before their trade value becomes nothing. This leaves only Jacob deGrom on the mound for the Mets.
Even as Jacob deGrom is producing a career year, the Mets are wasting the work of their best pitcher. The Mets are terrible this year, may be time for a rebuild in Queens, even when deGrom is lights out. deGrom is leading all of baseball in ERA, FIP, and ERA+. Regardless what you think about FIP and ERA+, leading MLB in ERA, with a 1.79 ERA is no small feat. In 18 starts this season, deGrom has pitched 115 ⅓ innings, allowing 23 Earned Runs, with 142 strikeouts against only 29 walks. He also has a 0.988 WHIP. He has gone at least seven innings in 11 starts. Yet despite his brilliance, deGrom has a 5-4 record and the Mets are 7-11 when deGrom starts. No team is successful when they struggle to win with their best pitcher on the mound.
Jacob deGrom has had to grin and bear it this year as he watches his great starts wasted by the Mets. (Michael Reaves/ Getty Images)
The Mets have scored 69 runs, 3.83 per game, in games deGrom starts. However, they have given up 70 runs, 3.88 per game. The bullpen is letting the team down, having allowed 46 runs in deGrom starts. Any close game deGrom leaves the bullpen is struggling to hold the lead or keep the game close for the offense. deGrom is 2-2 at Citi Field and 3-2 on the road. The Mets are currently 35-51 and in 4th place in the National League East, ahead of only the disaster in Miami in the standings. Not a great return for the pitching deGrom is delivering every fifth day.
The Amazings cannot expect deGrom to continue putting up these numbers with nothing to show for it. The Mets need to rebuild around deGrom or find a trade while he is hot. A pitcher like deGrom should bring back a slew of prospects that could turn the franchise around. deGrom does not reach free agency until 2021, he would be more than a trade deadline rental. Regardless what the team does, the Mets should not waste deGrom’s brilliance. The Mets are ridiculed for their decision-making, such as Bobby Bonilla and the Wilpons, but at some point the team needs to either act like a small market team that happens to play in New York or responsibility act like a big market team. Stop giving big contracts players at the back-end of their prime like Jason Bay, 4 years $66 million, and Yoenis Cespedes, 4 years $110 million. Spread the money around, spend money on the bullpen, spend money on developing a retaining guys like you did with David Wright, and hope they can avoid injury. Yes, Jacob deGrom is having an amazing season wasted by the Mets, but this is the latest symptom of the Mets inability to capitalize on the talent they draft and develop. The team needs to focus on putting a winning team on the field. Winning baseball will attract the fans and media attention and make New York a two team town.
If the New York Mets had a team motto for the 2017 season it would something like, “Finishing what you started and start what you want to finish.” 47 games, almost 30% of the season, could determine if the other 115 games matter in Queens.
The Mets schedule has them playing against only National League East opponents until May 8th when the Giants come to Flushing. The NL East can be shaped by how well the Mets come out of the gate. A great start to the season would mean the rest of the East has to beat up on each other while the Mets sit back and watch. It is hard to catch up with a team when you are not playing them. A terrible start could mean it is the Mets who are struggling to play catch up all summer.
A good start and finish could see Queens celebrating late into October. (NewsDay/ Thomas A. Ferrara)
Even if the Mets are unable to run away with the East with a successful beginning of the season, so long as they remain close they will have the opportunity to catch up at the end of the season. The final 15 games of the Mets’ season is against only NL East opponents. If the Nationals, the expected winner, have not clinched the Division, the 3 game series in Queens starting on September 22nd could decide who wins the National League East in 2017.
In 2016, the Mets began the 2016 season 20-12 (0.625) through their first 32 games and finished the season 9-6 (0.600) in their last 15 games. The Nationals also began the 2016 season 20-12 through the first 32 games, but finished 7-8 (0.467) over their last 15 games. This 2 game difference could be reduced to 8 season games that eventually led to the Nationals winning the East. Washington went 7-3 in the last 10 games before they clinched the division and began resting players for the playoffs. The Nationals were playing well when they secured their playoff spot, and then let off the game and coasted through the finish line.
The Mets could be the smacked in the face by their own play by the end of the season. (www.mlb.com)
Injuries happen to every team, so it is hard to justify a team coming up short based solely on an injury to a single player or a select group of players. The easiest way for the Mets to win the East is to play better against the Nationals and the Braves. In 2016 the Mets were 7-12 against Washington and 9-10 against the Braves. The Mets should have a winning record against the Braves and at least play .500 against the Nationals. This is a three game swing in the wins column, reducing the Nationals lead down to five games. New York went 12-7 against both the Phillies and the Marlins and needs to do so again this season. Good teams beat up on the teams they are better than in an effort to stockpile victories.
The Mets are off to an 8-11 start, wins and loses through 19 games this season. Their first 32 games and their last 15 games, roughly 30% of the season will loom large as to the success or failure of the 2017 season in Flushings. The Mets can put pressure on the National League East from the beginning or dig themselves into a whole that could be nearly impossible to get out of. If the Mets hope to finish what they start this season, they must start what they want to finish at the beginning of the season.
The Winning Run is back again with another attempt at predicting the outcome of the upcoming MLB season. The last two seasons we have tried and failed miserably to accurately predict what would happen. We have failed much more than we have found success, much like in real baseball. These predictions are not designed to jinx particular players or teams. These are honest predictions, designed to predict how we collectively see the 2016 season playing out. We can say without a doubt that our only perfect prediction is that reality is better than fiction.
Carnac the Magnificent knew what was going to happen, The Winning Run not so much. (The Tonght Show with Johnny Carson)
Here’s the breakdown of how we each think the divisions and playoffs will end up. Our final standings, based on the average placement between the four of us, will also include a brief scouting report from Bernie, as to what he sees in each team heading into the 2016 MLB season. His personal predictions were close to the collective predictions, and we have noted where they vary greatly.
Let us begin with the Senior Circuit.
*Note* An exclamation point (!) after a team name denotes a Wild Card berth.
|1||New York Mets||New York Mets||New York Mets||New York Mets|
|2||Washington Nationals – !||Washington Nationals||Washington Nationals||Miami Marlins|
|3||Miami Marlins||Miami Marlins||Miami Marlins||Washington Nationals|
|4||Atlanta Braves||Atlanta Braves||Philadelphia Phillies||Atlanta Braves|
|5||Philadelphia Phillies||Philadelphia Phillies||Atlanta Braves||Philadelphia Phillies|
- New York Mets:
The Mets shored up their interior defense by getting Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. If you watched last season’s playoff games, the Mets’ rotation always seemed to get beaten up the middle. Those guys will also likely provide a lot more consistent offense than Wilmer Flores or Daniel Murphy. The Mets are looking to play deep into October and I think they could do it.
2. Washington Nationals:
The Nationals are really the team equivalent of their star player, Bryce Harper; supremely talented, but mentally dysfunctional. There is a serious lack of team discipline and I don’t think Dusty Baker is the one to bring it. This is the major hurdle to the Nationals winning the division.
The question is will Dusty baker help the Nationals reach their potential. (Logan Bowles- USA Today Sports)
3. Miami Marlins:
Giancarlo Stanton’s contract has me believing that the Marlins are in it to win it now. They’ve always been good at developing talent so Manager Don Mattingly should have something to work with and collect some wins.
4. Atlanta Braves:
The Braves did some house cleaning, clearing the way for the wealth of talent in the minors. I’ve got to question whether they can generate any more runs this year than they did last year though. But they won’t be in last place.
5. Philadelphia Phillies:
I really shouldn’t have to say anything about this. No real change to expect anything better this year.
|1||Chicago Cubs||Chicago Cubs||Chicago Cubs||Pittsburgh Pirates|
|2||Pittsburgh Pirates||St. Louis Cardinals – !||Pittsburgh Pirates – !||Chicago Cubs – !|
|3||St. Louis Cardinals||Pittsburgh Pirates||St. Louis Cardinals||St. Louis Cardinals|
|4||Cincinnati Reds||Milwaukee Brewers||Cinncinati Reds||Cinncinati Reds|
|5||Milwaukee Brewers||Cincinnati Reds||Milwaukee Brewers||Milwaukee Brewers|
- Chicago Cubs:
Let’s be honest, they’re the Cubs. If they’re going to win it, it’s as Cinderella (Bernie has them going into the playoffs as a Wild Card). Chicago needs that storyline. I really like their rotation and bullpen but they overworked Jake Arrieta because they didn’t trust enough of their other players. That’s got to change.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – !:
I liked the way AJ Burnett found himself in Pittsburgh and I think Jonathon Niese may very well have the same sort of fortune in the Steel City. Michael Morse was a fun guy to watch in Washington, I’m going out on a limb to say he finds himself again and becomes a solid 1B for the Pirates this season. I’m still puzzled how these guys didn’t win the division last season.
- St. Louis Cardinals:
Last year, El Birdos found the fountain of youth for their stars. If it happens again this year, then the zombie apocalypse has started with Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Or maybe they need to be checked out for cybernetic implants.
Kris Bryant is heping lead the strongest Cubs team since those uniforms were not retro. (Jonathan Danil/ Getty Images)
- Cincinnati Reds:
The Cincinnati Reds may have done some house cleaning having traded away Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman. They still have some talent that I wouldn’t count out. What they definitely aren’t doing is wallowing.
- Milwaukee Brewers:
Speaking of wallowing…you’ve got to wonder about the Brewers’ pitching. Like at what point do you ask whether you’d have better luck regularly shuffling up from your AAA squads just to give you opponents less time to scout out your pitchers.
|1||San Francisco Giants||Los Angeles Dodgers||Los Angeles Dodgers||San Francisco Giants|
|2||Los Angeles Dodgers – !||Arizona Diamondbacks -!||Arizona Diamondbacks – !||Arizona Diamondbacks – !|
|3||Arizona Diamondbacks||San Francisco Giants||San Francisco Giants||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|4||San Diego Padres||San Diego Padres||San Diego Padres||San Diego Padres|
|5||Colorado Rockies||Colorado Rockies||Colorado Rockies||Colorado Rockies|
- Los Angeles Dodgers:
I’m not sure what the Dodgers were thinking during the off-season. What I am certain of is that letting Zack Greinke go and shuffling the management is not a good thing to do for some of the young guns on the team like Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig. If they had kept everything the same, I would have put them in first place for the division. (Bernie predicted the Dodgers to finish 3rd)
- San Francisco Giants – !:
I don’t really think pitching was their weakest issue last season but I think they are going into 2016 with one of the most enviable rotations a manager could ask for. I’m not completely sold on Santiago Casilla and bullpen. If Denard Span can stay healthy, he’s a great addition to a strong lineup that is capable of getting the ball in play and moving around the bases.
- Arizona Diamondbacks:
Zack Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt. Shelby Miller will get the run support he needed in Atlanta. But I don’t see enough depth here to remain consistent through the season. The bullpen can probably step in to help out the back end of the rotation. The lineup is young. Maybe they’re more disciplined and hungry than I think and could be a definite Wild Card contender.
Were the Dodgers Crazy to let Zack Greinke leave Los Angeles? (Rick Scuteri- USA Today Sports)
- San Diego Padres:
The only reason I’m putting the Padres over the Rockies is that they made some interesting pushes last season that indicate to me they could get it together. Doesn’t mean there’s enough talent here to make the playoffs though.
- Colorado Rockies:
The worst team ERA in 2015 and that’s with a pretty talented defensive infield. I’m surprised the fielders have enough gas in the tank to swing a bat when they’ve got to run around chasing hits all the time.
|1||Toronto Blue Jays||Toronto Blue Jays||New York Yankees||Toronto Blue Jays|
|2||Boston Red Sox – !||Tampa Bay Rays||Boston Red Sox||Baltimore Orioles – !|
|3||New York Yankees||New York Yankees||Toronto Blue Jays||Boston Red Sox|
|4||Tampa Bay Rays||Baltimore Orioles||Baltimore Orioles||New York Yankees|
|5||Baltimore Orioles||Boston Red Sox||Tampa Bay Rays||Tampa Bay Rays|
The American League East was the hardest division to predict, as an argument could be made for each team winning the Division. Here are Bernie’s thoughts.
- Toronto Blue Jays:
Biggest run differential of the 2015 season. Picking up Drew Storen was a great move to support their starting rotation. This team has what it takes on paper.
- New York Yankees:
There’s no point in having three of the best relief pitchers in the league when you don’t have a strong enough rotation to have them shortening the games. Lots of experience but not the cohesiveness you see in the Cardinals. But these predictions are supposed to go wildly wrong and, in this case, I sincerely hope I am. (Bernie has the Yankees finishing 4th)
- Boston Red Sox:
Ugh…I feel sick doing this. The Red Sox needed some serious pitching help. Clay Bucholz simply isn’t an ace. So they got one in David Price. They also picked up Craig Kimbrel so they’ve a good bullpen punch with him and Koji Uehara. As David Ortiz will be riding into the sunset this season, the Red Sox will be a good team to watch.
Can David Ortiz deliver one last magical run into October? (Elsa/ Getty Images)
- Baltimore Orioles:
There’s a lot of great talent on this team. They’ve got a great rotation and bullpen with two highly competent catchers. I would somewhat question their interior defense but with Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and new addition, Mark Trumbo, the Orioles have got a lot of heavy bats to knock in runs.
- Tampa Bay Rays:
This is a well-balanced pitching and defensive team but nothing exciting enough to write home about on the offensive side.
|1||Kansas City Royals||Kansas City Royals||Minnesota Twins||Kansas City Royals|
|2||Detroit Tigers – !||Cleveland Indians – !||Kansas City Royals – !||Cleveland Indians – !|
|3||Cleveland Indians||Minnesota Twins||Detroit Tigers||Detroit Tigers|
|4||Chicago White Sox||Detroit Tigers||Cleveland Indians||Minnesota Twins|
|5||Minnesota Twins||Chicago White Sox||Chicago White Sox||Chicago White Sox|
- Kansas City Royals:
They’re the champs so it’s sort of needed to give them the nod for their division. Plus, the 2015 squad wasn’t made up of veterans in the twilight of their careers reaching deep down for that extra something to win it all. They’re young and agile. They get on base. They aggressively move around the bases. No one’s yet figured out how to stop them or slow them down.
- Cleveland Indians – !:
These guys have a surprisingly good rotation with Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Cody Anderson. When I say surprisingly, I’m saying that how did they not win more? Francisco Lindor is young and if he’s coming into form, then we could be seeing a Wild Card contender here.
Francisco Lindor could help the Indians win a tough American League Central. (www.cleveland.com)
- Detroit Tigers:
Jordan Zimmermann is not David Price and I’ll let you figure out whether that’s a good or bad thing. I actually think Justin Upton was a good pick up for the Tigers but I’m not convinced they can make the jump from bottom of the division to much higher.
- Minnesota Twins:
I want to put this team higher but I think their second place divisional finish last season was more due to mishaps from other teams than their own solid play. Don’t get me wrong though, they’re on the right track. Just not this season.
- Chicago White Sox:
The addition of Todd Frazier will help them generate some more offense. But is the increased offense a wash after losing the veteran leadership of Adam LaRoche to early retirement (more on that later)? Whenever issues involving a front-office exec doing something about the locker room make the news, you just know there’s some serious dysfunction going on.
|1||Houston Astros||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim||Houston Astros||Houston Astros|
|2||Texas Rangers||Houston Astros – !||Texas Rangers – !||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim|
|3||Seattle Mariners||Seattle Mariners||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim||Texas Rangers|
|4||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim||Oakland Athletics||Oakland Athletics||Oakland Athletics|
|5||Oakland Athletics||Texas Rangers||Seattle Mariners||Seattle Mariners|
- Houston Astros:
I was really impressed by how the Houston Astros finished off the 2015 season. Something clicked and I think they’re going to ride this wave. Adding Ken Giles to the backend of the bullpen already featuring Luke Gregerson makes up a dangerous one-two punch to shorten games.
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – !:
I think the bigger reason I’m putting the Angels here instead of the Rangers is more on Rangers. I think Albert Pujols will still be remarkably dangerous in the batter’s box. Something about the balance on this team with Mike Trout’s hustle gives me a good feeling.
Can any one challenge Mike Trout for AL MVP? (www.nbcsports.com)
- Texas Rangers:
The Rangers are not going to take the proper steps to recover. I’m calling that they’re going to try starting the season hot and aggressive. By the All-Star break, this team will be on life support and need some serious therapy. But in reality, they look a better version on the Angels and since this prediction will be wildly off, they may very well win the division again.
- Seattle Mariners:
Nori Aoki was a good pick up to strengthen their outfield and improve getting on base. They’re going to rely too heavily on their rotation to go deep to win games and that’s not good for Felix Hernandez nor Hisashi Iwakuma.
- Oakland Athletics:
If Marcus Semien were a better fielder, I’d have more faith in this infield. On paper, this team would be a solid 2nd place team in the division. I just can’t make that call.
October is special, as the best baseball is on display and tensions continually grow throughout the month. The playoffs begin with the Wild Card games, which are a one game winner take all showdown. Wild Card teams better bring everything they have, or they will be on vacation.
|NL Winner||NL Loser||AL Winner||AL Loser|
|Derek||Washington Nationals||Los Angeles Dodgers||Boston Red Sox||Detroit Tigers|
|Jesse||Arizona Diamondback||St. Louis Cardinals||Cleveland Indians||Houston Astros|
|John||Pittsburgh Pirates||Arizona Diamondbacks||Kansas City Royals||Texas Rangers|
|Bernie||Chicago Cubs||Arizona Diamondbacks||Cleveland Indians||Baltimore Orioles|
|The Winning Run||Pittsburgh Pirates||San Francisco Giants||Cleveland Indians||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim|
In the National League, the Pirates will finally get out of the Wild Card round. Gerrit Cole will have carried the pitching staff throughout the season, so why not one more game. In the American League, the Indians strong starting rotation will have saved the Cleveland bullpen and allow fresh arms to come out of the pen and dominate the Angels hitters when the pressure is on.
Garrit Cole will lead the Pirates charge into the playoffs. (Peter Diana- Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
American League Divisional Series
|ALDS 1/4 Winner||ALDS 1/4 Loser||ALDS 2/3 Winner||ALDS 2/3 Loser|
|Derek||Houston Astros||Boston Red Sox||Toronto Blue Jays||Kansas City Royals|
|Jesse||Kansas City Royals||Cleveland Indians||Toronto Blue Jays||Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim|
|John||Minnesota Twins||Kansas City Royals||Houston Astros||New York Yankees|
|Bernie||Cleveland Indians||Kansas City Royals||Houston Astros||Toronto Blue Jays|
|The Winning Run||Toronto Blue Jays||Cleveland Indians||Houston Astros||Kansas City Royals|
National League Divisional Series
|NLDS 1/4 Winner||NLDS 1/4 Loser||NLDS 2/3 Winner||NLDS 2/3 Loser|
|Derek||San Francisco Giants||Washington Nationals||Chicago Cubs||New York Mets|
|Jesse||New York Mets||Arizona Diamondbacks||Chicago Cubs||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|John||New York Mets||Pittsburgh Pirates||Chicago Cubs||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|Bernie||San Francisco Giants||New York Mets||Pittsburgh Pirates||Chicago Cubs|
|The Winning Run||Chicago Cubs||Pittsburgh Pirates||New York Mets||Los Angeles Dodgers|
In the National League, the Pirates will not be able to overtake the Cubs. The Pirates are a great team, but they have the misfortune of playing in the NL Central where the best team in baseball, the Cubs, also plays. The young arms from Queens and a more predictable offense will lead the Mets past the Dodgers who will miss Zack Greinke more in October than during the regular season. In the American League, the Astros will continue to play complete baseball and overcome the Royals, who after back to back trips to the World Series will finally run out of gas. While Cleveland’s pitching led them to the playoffs, it will be no match for the offensive power of the Blue Jays. Josh Donaldson is the reigning AL MVP, and yet he is most likely not the chief offensive threat for Toronto, as Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista can launch a baseball with the best in the game.
Byron Buxton and the Twins could make some noise, potentially even make the playoffs. (Scott Kane- Associated Press)
American League Championship Series
|ALCS Winner||ALCS Loser|
|Derek||Toronto Blue Jays||Houston Astros|
|Jesse||Toronto Blue Jays||Kansas City Royals|
|John||Houston Astros||Minnesota Twins|
|Bernie||Houston Astros||Cleveland Indians|
|The Winning Run||Toronto Blue Jays||Houston Astros|
National League Championship Series
|NLCS Winner||NLCS Loser|
|Derek||Chicago Cubs||San Francisco Giants|
|Jesse||New York Mets||Chicago Cubs|
|John||Chicago Cubs||New York Mets|
|Bernie||San Francisco Giants||Pittsburgh Pirates|
|The Winning Run||Chicago Cubs||New York Mets|
A rematch of the 2015 NLCS. Two great teams, but the Cubs finally get over the hump and return to the World Series for the first time since 1945. The Cubs are a year older and wiser and have extraordinary talent at bat and on the mound. The Mets are a great team, but they lack the offensive prowess to overcome the Cubs. In the American League, Toronto will find out that teams cannot rely on power to guide them to a championship, there has to be a backup plan. The Blue Jays are not flexible enough to meet this challenge. The Astros have built a potential juggernaut in Houston, which relies on power, pitching, speed, defense, and hustle. Houston wins by the sum of its parts.
|World Series Winner||World Series Loser|
|Derek||Toronto Blue Jays||Chicago Cubs|
|Jesse||Toronto Blue Jays||New York Mets|
|John||Chicago Cubs||Houston Astros|
|Bernie||San Francisco Giants||Houston Astros|
|The Winning Run||Houston Astros||Chicago Cubs|
Sorry Cub fans, you will have to wait until next year…again. The Astros win it all in 2016. The speed of Jose Altuve, the power of Evan Gattis, the starting pitching of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, the bullpen of Ken Giles and Luke Gregerson, the all-around ability of Carlos Correa, not to mention George Springer and Carlos Gomez puts Houston over the top. The Cubs have everything to win. The young core of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, plus Javier Baez all can continue to grow with a solid rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and John Lackey. However, the Cubs are missing that it factor. Joe Madden will get the Cubs o click eventually, but in 2016 they will come one game short of that ever elusive World Series Championship.
It will be time to celebrate in Houston this October. (Houston Chronicle)
So there they are, the 2016 predictions by The Winning Run. Are we right about all our predictions, doubtful. Only time will tell how right or wrong we were with these predictions. Welcome to the 2016 MLB season, enjoy another great season of baseball.
DJ, JJ, JB, & BL
Three strikes and you are out is baseball 101. Apparently, Jenrry Mejia only understands this when he is on the mound. Mejia is the first player permanently banned due to failed PED testing. He has now failed three different PED tests since April 2015. Three failed tests in ten months is a quick way to find yourself out of baseball. Everyone makes mistakes, but Mejia seems to be unable to understand his mistakes and correct them.
Jenrry Mejia floated between the minor leagues and the Mets between 2010 and 2013. He appeared in 43 Major league games between 2010 and 2013. In 2014, he finally established himself as a legitimate closer, finishing 49 games with 28 saves for the Mets. Mejia had 98 SO and 41 BB in 93.2 innings in 2014. The Mets looked to have found their closer of the future. Then the 2015 season arrived and just as quickly as Mejia’s star rose in 2014, it fell.
Jenrry Mejia could have been the Mets closer of the future, but now it is all gone. (Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
On April 11, MLB announced Mejia had tested positive for stanozolol and was suspended for 80 games. Stanozolol is a synthetic steroid, made famous by Canadian Sprinter Ben Johnson who tested positive for stanozolol at the 1988 Seoul Summer Olympics and subsequently stripped of his Gold Medal. Mejia served his 80 games and returned to the Mets on July 12. He pitched in seven games before MLB announced on July 28 that Mejia had again failed a PED test. Mejia was now suspended for 162 games having tested positive for two different drugs, stanozolol and boldenone. Boldenone is a veterinarian steroid, not meant for human use, that builds muscle and endurance when used in humans. It is bad enough to be suspended twice for failed PED tests, but Mejia failed the test twice for stanozolol. When you fail a test the first time, whether the failed test was due to a mistake or an attempt to use PEDs, it would make sense to alter what is going into your body to prevent another failed test for the same substance. Instead, Mejia doubled down on the same drug and added another drug for good measure. Coming so soon after his rise, the Mets and the rest of professional baseball must wonder if Mejia’s performance was real or if it was chemically enhanced.
Mejia managed to make it through the rest of 2015 without failing another PED test. He would serve the remaining 99 games of his suspension in 2016 and then rejoin the Mets for what, the fans in Queens are hoping, will be another trip to the World Series. Instead, on February 12, MLB announced Mejia had failed a PED test again, the third time, for boldenone. While he finally stopped using stanozolol, Mejia failed a second test for boldenone. This third failed test means Mejia is now permanently banned from MLB.
Jenrry Mejia’s only hope now may only come from above. (www.remezcla.com)
There are many reasons a player would want to be mentioned in the same sentence as Pete Rose, but joining Rose as the only other living member of the permanently ineligible list is not among them. Mejia’s stupidity has cost him hundreds of thousands of dollars, potentially millions. His banishment from baseball reaches beyond MLB. Mejia cannot simply sign with a team in a league in Japan, Korea, or elsewhere as international leagues usually respect MLB suspensions and refuse to sign those players. Mejia finds himself on the outside of baseball looking in. He could potentially sign with a team during Winter Ball, but the paychecks and length of the season are much smaller. There is some good news for Mejia. He can apply for reinstatement after one year. If granted, Mejia would have to sit out an additional season, meaning he would miss two complete seasons before he could return to the diamond. Mejia is only 26, so it is feasible for him to return to the mound. Although time is somewhat on his side, I am not sure how forgiving MLB will be with someone who has failed three tests within 10 months.
In some ways, MLB may use Jenrry Mejia to set an example. Mejia may not be a superstar like Andrew McCutchen or Bryce Harper, but he is far from a player who barely made it to the majors. Mejia was looking at a long and successful career with the Mets. They believed in him enough to resign him even after two failed tests. The reality is the number of chances a player gets depends on their skill and Mejia’s skills on the mound made him a risk worth taking. Now the failed PED tests change everything. A player failing a test when they are barely hanging on in the low minor leagues can kiss their career goodbye. A superstar,like Ryan Braun, can continue his career without worrying about job security. It will be a tarnished career though and shows that MLB’s drug testing is accomplishing its intended goal. It will never catch every drug cheat, but catching Mejia three times shows it is not giving players a free pass.
Any time news comes that a player has failed a drug test, there is usually a quote from the athlete saying something like, “I do not know how this substance got into my body. I never knowingly took this substance.” People then roll their eyes or believe in the statement, but the player remains forever marked as a drug cheat. Personally, players who fail drug tests make me sad, sometimes angry. It’s hard to believe a banned substance accidentally entered their body. I’m sad when I believe they made a mistake and angry when the player appears arrogant with their bluster exploding after their failed test. Players like Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez are the public face of those players who no longer get the benefit of the doubt, and it is all due to their own egos and how they handled the media fallout from their failed tests.
After multiple failed tests, Ryan Braun seems surprised no one believes he did not cheat. (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)
Jenrry Mejia failed three different tests with two different drugs. While it may sound a bit odd, I would be more willing to believe any plea he might offer of innocence if he had failed the tests for a different drug each time. The counter-argument there is that he may have been changing drugs in an attempt to avoid detection, plausible and likely true. However, it would have been equally likely that he stopped using the source of the drug to avoid another failed test, but as bad luck would have it, he was negligent again of knowing exactly he was taking. I readily admit that failing three different tests on accident is extremely unlikely, though still possible. Mejia, however, seems to have believed that he could beat the test. He failed spectacularly three different times. You fail the first test, whether you are dirty or clear you will reexamine and adjust what is going into your body. Instead, Mejia continued as he was doing and added another layer of drugs. Not surprisingly, he failed another test. Again, you would think he would change what was going into his body. Instead, he only stopped using the stanozolol while continuing to use boldenone. Coming as a surprise to no one, Mejia failed his third test. Why would you continue to take the same drug you failed a test for before when you know the next failed test could end your career?
Jenrry Mejia was stupid, either willingly or through neglect. Either he is the worst drug cheat in baseball or he is extremely unlucky. Regardless, he has failed three separate PED tests. Ultimately, it does not matter how Mejia has found himself banned from baseball, he now finds himself on the outside looking in. The argument about whether gambling or PEDs are the bigger threat to the game is moot; both sides have a legitimate case but are both being equally addressed. While Mejia hopefully collects himself and cleans up, baseball is left to savor a bittersweet victory. The MLB Drug Policy is working. It is not catching every player using PEDs, but it is catching some. Once they are caught they are serving their punishments, which in the case of many are career altering and in the case of Jenrry Mejia the punishment can be career ending.
The tear in the UCL in Jose Fernandez’s right elbow is a huge blow for baseball. He has clearly established himself as one of the bright young stars in Major League Baseball. He is also in the conversation for best pitcher. He may not be on the same level as a Clayton Kershaw or a Justin Verlander, but he will be in the not so distant future. Imagine how good he would be if he had a team who could play .500 baseball or better behind him.
You know a player is special when you hear fans of a rival team bemoan the injury. Jose Fernandez is a life line for baseball in South Florida. He brings fans to the ball park and is helping the Marlins rise from the ashes of their latest fire sale. The Marlins are getting better with young home grown talent at the core this time, instead of the overpriced talent from other teams. The latter method is how they built their team during their two World Series victories and how they tried to win a third before blowing up the latest experiment. The story around the Marlins has finally shifted from Jeffrey Loria and his use of tax payer money to build a new stadium and then selling off every valuable asset the team possessed, to the promise of both entertaining and competitive baseball in Miami.
The Marlins have been competitive all season, even briefly holding the division lead. Even though it is only mid-May, in recent years the team has been out of the race almost from Opening Day. So clearly there is some progress being made. There is life in Miami, but this season will be another rebuilding year without Fernandez. The Fish have lost their ace, but it also means the other members of the rotation will not be pitching in the proper spots in the rotation. This will cost the Marlins several games throughout the year. Fernandez had eating up valuable innings, over six per outing, thus saving the bull pen every fifth day. The loss of Fernandez begins the domino effect which hampers the Marlins in a way in which their current roster most likely will not be able to recover this season.
The Marlins are on the rise, but their rise will have to wait until Jose Fernandez returns next season to begin with earnest. The trend in pitchers who go through Tommy John surgery is they are back in a year, but are back to their pre-surgery abilities after two years. So much like the New York Mets and Matt Harvey, the Miami Marlins are looking towards the future. The 2014 and 2015 seasons will be building towards playing competitive baseball in 2016. The fans in Queens and South Florida will be reawakened and these two members of the National League East will be competitive again.
Injuries are a part of the game, and while we should feel some concern for all players who are injured, the reality is there are some players who impact the game more than others. Jose Fernandez is this sort of special player. He will be missed for the rest of this season and his return will be greatly anticipated by the Marlins, their fans, and everyone who loves and cares about baseball.