Tagged: Freddie Freeman

Predictions Sure to Go Wrong 6.0

Here we go into a new season where anything can happen. We had a lackluster off-season with a sputtering hot stove that saw some record-breaking contracts but weeks of “Will he or won’t he” that belongs on the Lifetime Channel rather than the MLB news wire. Teams seem willing to bet big on prospects but undervalue proven commodities. This is the same spirit we’re taking when we peer into our cracked crystal ball to make predictions about the 2019 season. We’re going to switch things up starting with the American League and Bernie is going to report on why they will or won’t do what we think they’ll do.

American League

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
AL East Yankees Rojo Sox (yeah I said it) Yankees Yankees Yankees Yankees
Red Sox* Bandwagoners* Red Sux* Red Sox* Tea Partiers* Red Sox
Rays Canadians Rays Rays* Rays Rays
Blue Jays Devil Rays Blue Jays Blue Jays Pajaritos Blue Jays
Orioles Cal Ripkens hOribles Crush Davis Express Blue Jays Orioles

 

New York Yankees

One hundred wins last season and they end up a Wild Card. They blasted more home runs in a season than any team before. The rotation didn’t quite hold up and the bats went a bit cold in the Postseason. They shored up their pitching rotation in the off-season by trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. Masahiro Tanaka may have developed a pitch that could keep him from getting blown up every five games. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar had a season in the Bronx to settle in and help recreate a new Murderers’ Row.

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Giancarlo Stanton will be flipping his bat and trotting around the bases plenty in 2019. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Boston Red Sox

They’re the reigning champs and they did it with a collective play that didn’t focus on one player’s excellence. Mookie Betts may be the most athletically gifted player in the Majors and Chris Sale wouldn’t surprise anyone if he makes another case to win the Cy Young. Craig Kimbrel hanging out in free agency does not help shorten games. We have to give the defending champs their due but they also didn’t do much in the off-season. Resting on your laurels while everyone else is re-configuring to beat the champs may not be the most sound strategy.

Tampa Bay Rays

Blake Snell threw the kind of fire that could have started the California wildfires last year. The Rays got him to bite on a 5 year, $50 million contract with a $3 million signing bonus. While it’s a big jump for him, it’s not elite ace money. The Rays are trying to win on a budget but that only works when you’ve got an analytical or strategic edge over your competition. You can’t Moneyball when everyone else is reading the statistics the same way. Then again, they probably would run away with the AL Central…

Toronto Blue Jays

There have been a lot of near misses with the Blue Jays’ recent signings. Randal Grichuk, Ken Giles, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz…these are all (or were) solid role players to support a more elite group of players. *cough*Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*cough*

Baltimore Orioles

Mark Trumbo’s knee is looking better. Crush Davis is still their best option a first base? No left-handed pitching? Is Trey Mancini the only glimmer of hope on this roster? What happens is Jonathan Villar stays healthy and hits?

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
AL Central Spiders Twinkletits sTinkies Cleveland Twins Twins
Twins Wahoos Native Americans* Twinkies Wahoos Cleveland
White Sox Tigers Sox ChiSox White Sox White Sox
Royals Black Sox Tigers Tigers Royals Tigers
Tigers Monarchs Royals Royals Tigers Royals

 

Minnesota Twins

The firing of Paul Molitor shows the Twins front office is getting impatient for wins. Rocco Baldelli coached the Rays for a few seasons so he knows how to work with a budget and talent, however Molitor was really the best sort of balance between analytics and gut feeling for the game. Derek and I saw Miguel Sano hit a laser in Detroit during BP that rocked the brick wall beyond the centerfield fence. We agree it would have carried over 500 ft. Perhaps Nelson Cruz can help guide Sano towards his All Star potential. Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop, and Ronald Torreyes are solid pick ups to shore up the infield that’s covered by a great outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario. They’ve got the talent to compete but only in their division.

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Will Miguel Sano become the star Minnesota is hoping for? (Bruce Kluckhohn-Associated Press)

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland’s lineup is looking a bit battered but they truly do their damage through hustle and pitching. Well, the hustle seems to be worn out. What’s worse is the arms seem to have cooled. A few years ago facing Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Trevor Bauer would have seemed like swinging at ghosts. Now it seems that the only trouble with the rotation is staying alert enough to make contact. There’s still a deep well of talent here, it’s just worn down and needs a refresh.

Chicago White Sox

Eloy Jimenez is not the second coming but that’s because the White Sox’ front office had thought that about Yoan Moncada. Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, and Ivan Nova make up a serviceable rotation but let’s be honest, the ChiSox are only getting third because of their divisional competition.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are pretty much the White Sox without the prospects.

Kansas City Royals

Danny Duffy has a shoulder impingement in his throwing shoulder. Salvador Perez is out, getting Tommy John surgery…as a catcher. I have more faith in Bartolo Colon being able to pitch through 9 innings than this team to win more than 50 games.

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
AL West Astros Colt .45’s Stros Astros Athletics Astros
Athletics* White Elephants* Ohtanis Oakland Astros* Athletics
Angels Trouts Athletics Angels Angels Angels
Mariners Walker Texas Rangers Mariners Seattle Mariners Mariners
Rangers Mariners Rangers Rangers Rangers Rangers

 

Houston Astros

These guys are a team of superstars that play like a team. Justin Verlander, George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman deliver on such a regular basis that support from guys like Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick coming into a hot streak is just overwhelming for most teams. There’s a certain level of excellence that you have to bring to beat these guys. Few teams have it and fewer can do it as consistently.

Oakland Athletics

This is a team that makes you go “Who is that?” and they consistently outperform the expectations of the “experts”. Just bear in mind that the A’s outperformed Houston in OPS, BA, and HRs last season. Sean Manaea threw a no-no last season and he’s leading a rotation that doesn’t have the same regression potential that Houston has.

Los Angeles Angels

Shohei Ohtani isn’t throwing this season. Mike Trout signed a landmark contract that’s prompting players to question the utility of free agency (but really, without Bryce Harper and Manny Machado doing what they did, Trout wouldn’t have gotten his deal). This is team that’s signaling that they want to win but really not showing people that they know how to win. They may end up like the Yankees of the early 2000’s with enormous salaries, big names, cracked lumber…but no hardware to show for it.

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Mike Trout got paid, but can the Angels ever put together a winning team? (FTW-USA TODAY Sports)

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are a lot like a superb AAA with some hot prospects just waiting for a call up. It’s not a rotation but a one-two punch in Marco Gonzalez and Yusei Kikuchi and I wouldn’t want to go into a boxing match with that combo. King Felix might have a few good games in him this season but that’s not a lot to float by on. The high point of their season is already over, Ichiro played in Japan and then retired.

Texas Rangers

This is a team full of redemption stories in the making. I’m not holding my breath. New stadium for 2020 might be the most exciting off-season move.

National League

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
NL East Nationals Follies Braves Phillies Phillies Phillies
Phillies* Bravos* Harpers* Marlins* (yeah Jeets!) Braves* Braves
Braves Gnats Nationals Nationals Mets Nationals
Mets Amazins Yets Braves Nationals Mets
Marlins Fish Minor Lg Team Mets Marlins Marlins

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies picked up some good talent in Andrew McCutchen who had a bit of a refresh by the Bay and in the Bronx, Jean Segura who’s production and defense are constantly overlooked, and J.T. Realmuto, who’s on-base and slugging continue tracking better every year in the majors. We also saw Aaron Nola turn the corner and take over the mound like an elite ace. Jake Arrieta may not find the stride he had in Chicago but an improved lineup may make his job easier and bolster his confidence to hold things down. Let’s not forget that they also picked up a certain free agent that could amplify all of those previous moves by a huge leap – Bryce Harper.

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Bryce Harper moved to Philadelphia, can he win in October? (Drew Hallowell/ Getty Images)

Atlanta Braves

The Braves sort of caught lightning in a bottle with the emergence of young prospects in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. The signing of Josh Donaldson blocks Johan Camargo from the everyday lineup and puts him into a super utility role. When a young star like Freddie Freeman is one of your elder statesmen and you win the division, there’s a lot to like about this team. But the Braves probably had the largest range of predictions among The Winning Run’s team with first and fourth place finishes.

Washington Nationals

There’s a lot of killer talent on this team. They might actually be better without Bryce Harper in their outfield. But just like the city they play for, there are a lot of management and clubhouse synergy issues to overcome.

New York Mets

Speaking of management issues…there is still an enviable amount of pitching talent in Queens. The Mets need to stop trying to be the Yankees and embrace the chaos and circus of the New York sports media. Less bro, more fun would go a long way into turning this team into winners. Oh and either fire the entire medical staff or protect their positions and salaries from the front office. Either way, there are too many injuries for this to be anything but incompetence or interference, neither is good.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins will not do what the Phillies did last year. Kevin’s just doubling down because when it doesn’t work out, he can brush it off as a joke. Derek Jeter may be on track to becoming to baseball ownership/front office management what Michael Jordan has been to basketball.

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
NL Central Cardinals Cards Brewers Brew Crew Cardinals Cardinals
Cubs Harray Carays Cards* Cardinals* Brewers* Brewers
Brewers Brewtus Maximus Reds Reds Reds Cubs
Reds Better Dead than Red Cubs Cubbies Cubs Reds
Pirates Bucs Privates Pirates Pirates Pirates

 

St. Louis Cardinals

I feel like a broken record. This team just reloads. Unlike last year, I think they won the off-season by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. They have great players in the rest of their positions or a deep bench to platoon. Yadier Molina is a cyborg because getting into that crouch in your late 30’s is just crazy, or I’m just jealous. Hopefully Molina is wearing a bulletproof cup this year. Regardless, the Cardinals seem to have a range and depth that provides them an edge over the regressing Cubs and volatile Brewers teams.

Milwaukee Brewers

There’s a lot of hitting potential on this team and they will probably be in the top 5 for HRs by the end of the season. The Brewers outperformed expectations on pitching last year but I think it can be done again. Corey Knebel being hurt is manageable since the bullpen seems infinitely interchangeable.

Chicago Cubs

Yu Darvish was a bust last year. Maybe he’ll turn it around this year. Jon Lester is a #2 guy who’s turning into a #3. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana are all a step away from brilliance but it is a risky bet that this is the season they take that step. They’re dangerous on the other side of the ball but something isn’t gelling for them and it’s not likely to fix itself this year.

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Yasiel Puig brings his energy to the Reds, can he bring more wins? (Kareem Elgazzar/ Cincinnati.com)

Cincinnati Reds

While Yasiel Puig brings a whole lot of fun energy to southwest Ohio, the bigger story is the pitching rotation. Sonny Gray has mean stuff but the lights in New York were too bright. Alex Wood is an underrated pitcher who keeps his lineups in the game with a 3.29 ERA over six seasons. Puig bringing extra run support could mean good things by the Ohio River.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL Central may be the polar opposite of the AL Central in competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean Pittsburgh is fielding a team that’s contributing to that image.

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie The Winning Run
NL West Dodgers Coors Dem Bums Dodgers Rockies Dodgers
Rockies* The Choking Kershaws* Rockies Rockies Dodgers Rockies
Padres Sneks Padres Padres Diamondbacks Padres
Diamondbacks Padres Giants D-backs Padres Diamondbacks
Giants Goliaths Diamondbacks Giants Giants Giants

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have won the division every season since 2013. It doesn’t seem likely to change but they didn’t do a lot in the off-season. The biggest move was to sign A.J. Pollock to a five-year deal to replace Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Much like the Red Sox, this doesn’t portend well. However, it’s hard to argue that the rest of the NL West made the sort of moves that would make them legitimate challengers to that crown.

Colorado Rockies

Nolan Arenado got a big contract and remains one of the most exciting players in the Majors. The departure of DJ LeMahieu was softened by signing Daniel Murphy. So they have the firepower to run up scores on their opponents, but playing in Denver is simply a difficult balance for pitching. Jon Gray seems to be one of the few pitchers that’s unfazed pitching at home or away from that elevation. It’s just hard to develop a rotation and bullpen around that. Especially when you let a guy like Adam Ottavino go to the Yankees.

San Diego Padres

Seriously? How did this happen? Oh yeah, the Diamondbacks sold the house. Hey look Manny Machado.

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How long until the Padres are relevant again? Ralph (Freso/ Getty Images)

Arizona Diamondbacks

They sold the house. Zack Greinke cannot be happy that his departure from the Dodgers has left him with the team he has now. Goldschmidt is in St. Louis and Steven Souza Jr. went down with a terrible knee injury and is gone for the season. Can Jake Lamb stay healthy and will Adam Jones find a new home in the desert. They have a good rotation so if the hitting is good, they’re a dangerous team to play spoiler.

San Francisco Giants

How the mighty have fallen. Let’s not forget that the Giants have won three of the last ten World Series titles. But really, that’s all that’s going for them right now. One last trip around the Majors for Bruce Bochy.

Wild Card

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie Winning Run
AL Wild Card Red Sox Bandwagoners Red Sux Red Sux Tea Partiers Red Sox
Athletics White Elephants Indians Rays Astros Athletics
NL Wild Card Phillies Bravos Cards Cardinals Brewers Rockies
Rockies The Choking Kershaws Phillies Marlins Braves Brewers

 

Divisional Series

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ALDS 1-4 Red Sox Rojo Sox Yankees Astros Yankees Yankees
Astros White Elephants Red Sux Red Sux Tea Partiers Red Sox
NLDS 1-4 Dodgers Follies Dodgers Dodgers Rockies Dodgers
Phillies Bravos Cards Cardinals Brewers Rockies
ALDS 2-3 Yankees Colt .45’s Astros Yankees Athletics Astros
Indians Twinkletits Twins Cleveland Twins Twins
NLDS 2-3 Cardinals Coors Brewers Brewers Cardinals Cardinals
Nationals Cards Braves Phillies Phillies Phillies

 

Championship Series

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ALCS Yankees Rojo Sox Yankees Yankees Yankees Yankees
Red Sox Colt .45’s Astros Astros Athletics Astros
NLCS Cardinals Bravos Dodgers Brewers Rockies Cardinals
Dodgers Coors Brewers Cardinals Cardinals Dodgers

 

World Series

Derek Jesse John Kevin Bernie Winning Run
World Series Red Sox Coors Dodgers Brewers Yankees Cardinals
Cardinals Colt .45’s Yankees Yankees Cardinals Yankees

 

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Sorry CC Sabathia it is not looking good for you to end your career with a World Series victory. This one’s for you CC. (Kim Klement- USA TODAY Sports)

Our apologies to the New York Yankees because our prediction means they’re probably not going to win this year. We have been wrong the last five years, why change now.

BL with DJ, JJ, JB, & KB

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Grinding Away

The Washington Nationals had a stranglehold on the National League East during Spring Training, at least on paper. The rest of the division was vying for a Wild Card spot at best. When the season started the Nationals turned into a paper tiger, while the Phillies and Braves vaulted to the top of the East as their rebuilding efforts bear fruit. Few people expected either team to play this well into mid-September.

Leading the Braves resurgence is a consummate professional. The breakout season by rookie duo of Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña, and another outstanding season from perennial All Star in Freddie Freeman have gotten much of the attention. However, it is the veteran Nick Markakis leading the charge in Atlanta.  

It is past time to appreciate and honor the consistency of Nick Markakis. Markakis is leading baseball in hits, and leading the National League in sacrifice flies and is tied for the National League lead in doubles. He is a compiler, like Craig Biggio. Compilers are rarely given the respect they deserve as they grind, often under the radar. Markakis rarely misses a game, playing an average of 155 games each season. He has played fewer than 147 games in a season only once in his 13 year career.

This season he ranks in the top 10 in baseball in Batting Average, Plate Appearances, At Bats, Games Played, Hits (leads all of baseball), Singles, Doubles, Times of Base, Sacrifice Flies, Intentional Walks, and At Bats per Strikeout.  While these stats do not make him a super star in the eyes of fans, teams know a player like Markakis is critical to their success.

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Nick Markakis consistently puts the ball in play. Could he quietly be grinding his way towards Cooperstown? (Hyosub Shin/ HShin@ajc.com)

2018 is not an outlier for Markakis, he has been a force his entire career. He has eight seasons with 170 or more hits. He averages 182 hits per season, yet has never had a 200 hit season. He will finish close to 200 hits yet again as he has 174 hits with two weeks left to play. Markakis has nine seasons with 30 or more doubles and five seasons with 40 or more doubles. He already has 40 doubles this season, above his 39 doubles in an average season. He has scored 75 runs, hit 14 home runs, and drawn 63 walks which are around an average season for him. His .306 batting average is the best of his career, he will have his third season hitting above .300, yet his career .289 average shows his consistency at the plate. Markakis has struck out 70 times, well below his average of 93 per season. His career 6.8 At Bats per Strikeout is well below the Major League average of 4.6. A career .359 OBP, with .371 this season. He has never been a power bat, but he puts the ball in play and sets the table for the power bats behind him in the line up.

Markakis finished sixth in the crowded 2006 American League Rookie of the Year. He is a two time Gold Glove winner, 2011 and 2014, winning both awards without committing an error in over 1,300 innings in the field each season. He was voted to his first All Star game this season. He played the most games and collected the most hits before playing in his first All Star game in baseball history.

Grinding away, Markakis is quietly sneaking up on 3,000 hits. He currently has 2,226 hits. If he can remain healthy and continue collecting an average of 182 hits every year, Markakis would reach the mystical 3,000 hit mark before his 40th birthday. This would present the baseball writers with an intriguing question. Does collecting 3,000 hits automatically make you are a Hall of Famer? A few more good seasons by Markakis could force the baseball writers to confront this question.

Much of what Markakis provides Atlanta is not found in the stats. His veteran leadership has helped the young Braves rise to the top of the division earlier than expected. Veteran leadership is disappearing as teams are unwilling to pay veteran prices for players past their primes. In Markakis, the Braves have a veteran leader in the clubhouse and on the field. Time will tell how far his leadership can lead Atlanta and how valuable he is on the free agent market after the season.

DJ

Braves Stay Home

The Atlanta Braves took two steps towards continuing their return to dominance of the National League East. While some say the Team of the 90’s underachieved by only winning one World Series, I would contend their success is among the greatest in baseball history. The Yankees did have more success in the World Series during the 1950’s. However they did not have to navigate the treachery that is the Major League Playoffs. The Braves were faced with a much longer task and the advent of free agency meant it was harder for teams to retain talent, as that talent could not be controlled for the entire length of their career. Could you imagine what players like Joe DiMaggio or Mickey Mantle could have earned if free agency existed when they played? This adds to how special the Braves were during their run of 14 consecutive National League East titles.

Smiles all around.

Smiles all around.

Just as the Yankees continually reach into their deep pockets and sign one big free agent after another, the Braves have an approach all their own. This approach has three parts. First, they develop home grown talent, such as Chipper Jones and Tom Glavine. Second, the trade for young talent which is usually still in the minor leagues, such as John Smoltz. Third they are selective about signing free agents, such as Greg Maddux. The signing of Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman to new deals fits the mold of how the Braves operate, they are keeping their home grown talent. They drafted and developed Heyward and Freeman and are building the future around a young pitching staff and these All Star caliber players.

Michael Bourn is impressed with Jason Heyward's catch.

Michael Bourn is impressed with Jason Heyward’s catch.

Jason Heyward is coming off a down year. Although this is primarily due to injuries and he should bounce back in 2014. Heyward’s speed and power make him a prime offensive threat and prevents countless hits from dropping in the outfield. His throwing arm makes any opponent trying to take the extra base think twice and many wisely decide not to. While Heyward has tremendous upside his career thus far has been a little bit of a roll coaster due to a lack of plate discipline in his second season and injuries this past season. The Braves were smart to sign Heyward to a two year, $13.3 million deal as it allows him time to get and stay healthy and for the Braves to not be tied down to a big contract. I expect Heyward to have a great 2014 season. The Braves should be eager to work with him next off season to sign him to a multi-year deal. This saves the Braves some money now and allows Heyward to sign a larger deal as he enters his prime as he will be 26 when this new deal ends. If the Braves are smart they will keep Heyward in Atlanta beyond this new contract and continue to build their new dominance with him as one of the cornerstones.

Freddie "Hugs" Freeman

Freddie “Hugs” Freeman

Freddie Freeman is now the face of the Atlanta Braves. The retirement of Chipper Jones meant the team of the 90’s was gone and the Braves were beginning anew. Freeman has gotten better every year he has been in Atlanta. He hits for power, he hits for average, and he is an excellent defender at first base. He has increased his walk totals and decreased his strikeout totals every season. Freeman is durable and has average 150 games a year in his career without the aid of the DH to keep his bat in the lineup, while giving him days off from the field. Freeman will be 32 when his 8 year, $125 million deal ends in 2021. He will be on the back end of his prime, however the Braves have shown a willingness to work with their best players to keep them in Atlanta and yet continually fielding a contender. Chipper Jones restructured his contract with the Braves, which allowed the front office to continue to put a winner on the field.  He has since retired as a legend in Atlanta. I will not be surprised if Freeman does the same thing. He fills a valuable position on the field at a discount later in the contract, as salaries in baseball will undoubtedly continue to go up. Freeman is the left handed bat in the middle of the lineup that helps keep the Braves balanced while protecting Heyward. The Braves are spot on with their signing Freeman to a long term deal as it provides a core to build around and by signing him so early, like the Tampa Bay Rays did with Evan Longoria, Atlanta will be getting All Star caliber play, if not better, at a reduced price.

Chipper Jones saved Freddie Freeman from snow and ice. The torch has been passed.

Chipper Jones saved Freddie Freeman from snow and ice. The torch has been passed.

The Atlanta Braves cannot compete with the Dodgers and Yankees for high priced free agents. At the same time they are not the Houston Astros. They remain in the upper middle class as far as Major League Baseball team payrolls are concerned, and yet nearly every year they out perform their payroll as they have developed quality players at a fraction of the price that a free agent would cost them. You can argue the Braves are titans during the regular season but are paper tigers during the playoffs. However, I would say they understand how to run a quality organization that has created a way for the team to be competitive year in and year out.  Having the opportunity to win every year means winning pennants and World Series Championships are more likely than the ebb and flow experienced by other teams.  The Braves do all this without the high payroll or necessarily being a destination team. The Yankees and Dodgers will always have appeal to players as destinations for players due to their location, history, and their deep pockets. However, on the field there is little that replaces winning and the Braves know how to win.

D