Tagged: Rougned Odor

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 3.0

Before predicting what will happen during the 2017 Major League season, let’s take a look back at The Winning Run’s predictions for the 2016 season. Once again we did a terrible job of guessing the final standings and playoffs. We are terrible at predictions, but we are consistent at our terribleness. So without further ado, a look back at our sad attempt at predicting the 2016 Major League season.

National League East

Prediction Reality
1 New York Mets Washington Nationals
2 Washington Nationals New York Mets
3 Miami Marlins Miami Marlins
4 Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies
5 Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
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The death of Jose Fernandez was a shocking reminder that baseball is just a game. (Rob Foldy/Getty Images)

National League Central

Prediction Reality
1 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs
2 Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals
3 St. Louis Cardinals Pittsburgh Pirates
4 Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
5 Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds

 

National League West

Prediction Reality
1 Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
2 San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
3 Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
4 San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres

 

American League East

Prediction Reality
1 Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox
2 New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles
3 Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays
4 Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees
5 Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays

 

American League Central

Prediction Reality
1 Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
2 Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers
3 Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals
4 Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox
5 Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins
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In 2016, not every team could take a punch from the competition. (AP Photo/CSM/Albert Pena)

American League West

Prediction Reality
1 Houston Astros Texas Rangers
2 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Seattle Mariners
3 Texas Rangers Houston Astros
4 Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5 Oakland Athletics Oakland Athletics

 

Playoffs

Wild Card

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants New York Mets
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Francisco Lindor and the Indians came so close to a World Series Championship, but Cleveland will have to wait at least one more season. (Jason Miller/ Getty Images)

Divisional Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians Boston Red Sox

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates Chicago Cubs San Francisco Giants
New York Mets Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals

 

Championship Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros Cleveland Indians Toronto Blue Jays

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs New York Mets Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers

 

World Series

Games Won Prediction Games Won Actual
4 Games Houston Astros 4 Games Chicago Cubs
2 Games Chicago Cubs 3 Games Cleveland Indians

We did not get much right, but we did correctly predict six teams in their final standings, five playoff teams, and two Divisional Series Winners, and the National League Championship winner. Our predictions were not as accurate as in the 2015 final standings, but we found greater success in the playoffs. The playoffs are where it really matters, right?

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The Cubs are World Series Champions. (Ezra Shaw/ Getty Images)

Predicting the final standings for the regular season is not an easy task. Our predictions in 2015 (11 of 30 correct) were much higher than our average, so it came as no surprise that in 2016 our predictions fell back to earth. We were correct that the Miami Marlins would finish third in the National League East, ahead of the rebuilding Braves and Phillies but well behind the Nationals and Mets. The Cubs were the easy pick to win the National League Central, far outpacing the rest of the division.The National League West was a two team race from the beginning, but we were correct that the Dodgers would out last the Giants over the course of the season. Finally we were correct in predicting the American League East would leave the Rays behind and the American League West would leave the Athletics behind as both teams finished last in their division.

Our predictions in the playoffs were much better in 2016. There are ten playoff spots, we selected half the teams before the season began. The Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants all made the playoffs, but despite having half the teams in the playoffs correct, we did not do a great job of predicting what they would do once they made it to October. We were correct in predicting the Toronto Blue Jays would win the American League Divisional Series. We correctly predicted the Chicago Cubs would win the National League pennant, although we felt they were not yet ready to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Opps.

The 2016 Major League season was not what we predicted it would be; it was better. No matter how careful we are in making our predictions, we will be wrong more often than we are right; such is baseball. Every season has its memories, for the Cubs it was finally winning the World Series after waiting more than a century. The Reds, Braves, Twins, Athletics, and other continued to rebuild. Every team is trying to get better, but not matter what baseball is unpredictable. We hope we are better at predicting the 2017 season than we were the 2016 season. However, there are only three guarantees that we can make: 1) baseball is unpredictable, 2) our predictions will turn out to be horribly wrong, 3) baseball makes everything better.

DJ, JJ, JB, and BL

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How Did We Get Here and What Is About To Happen?

Welcome to the Fall Classic.  The World Series has arrived after an exciting run through the playoffs.  The Kansas City Royals will face the New York Mets for the right to lift the Commissioner’s Trophy as the champion of Major League Baseball.  The Kansas City Royals last won the World Series in 1985.  The New York Mets last won the World Series in 1986.  The championship drought for one of these teams is about to end after many, often painful, years.

So what has led us to this World Series?  How have we navigated from the Wild Card games through the playoffs and finally to the World Series?  The field has gone from 10 teams down to just 2 teams.

The Commissioners' Trophy is awarded to the World Series winning team. (http://blog.gospikes.com/?p=162)

The Commissioners’ Trophy is awarded to the World Series winning team. (http://blog.gospikes.com/?p=162)

National League Wild Card

Chicago Cubs 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 0

The Pirates were once again a formidable team during the regular season, but they fell short in the Wild Card game.  Behind their young bats and Jake Arrieta’s complete game shutout, the Cubs showed they were the superior team, at least for one day when it mattered the most.

American League Wild Card

Houston Astros 3, New York Yankees 0

The New York Yankees coasted into the Wild Card game, and not in a good way.  They struggled down the stretch and benefitted from early season success to make it into the playoffs.  Unfortunately, they met the Houston Astros who were hungry and playing much better baseball.  Each passing inning, the energy inside Yankee Stadium seemed to wane just a little more until reality could no longer be denied.  Dallas Keuchel and the Astros bullpen shut down the Yankees line up and Houston rode the power of Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez into the ALDS.

The Houston Astros are back. The won the Wild Card game a year ahead of schedule. (www.wdsu.com)

The Houston Astros are back. The won the Wild Card game a year ahead of schedule. (www.wdsu.com)

National League Divisional Series

New York Mets 3 games, Los Angeles Dodgers 2 games

The Mets and Dodgers alternated wins throughout the series.  The turning point of the series was in Game 2 with the injury to Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada.  The Mets ultimately lost Game 2, but Tejada’s injury rallied the team together.  Tejada’s injury from Chase Utley’s “slide” could have derailed the Mets.  Instead, behind their young pitching staff and Daniel Murphy the Mets would not quit.  The Mets faced Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in four of the five games and split those games.  The Dodgers were beaten with their best pitchers on the mound by a team who refused to quit.

Chicago Cubs 3 games, St. Louis Cardinals 1 game

Game 1 showed how dominant the St. Louis Cardinals could be, and it brought back the memories of the Curse of the Billy Goat for Cubs fans.  However, after Game 1, the Cubs took command of the series by winning the next three straight to eliminate the Cardinals.  The Cubs did not run away with the series, winning the final three games by seven runs total, but St. Louis was never able to answer the Cubs offense.  The Cardinals remained competitive but, after Game 1, it never felt like they had a chance.

The Chicago Cubs were overcoming the Curse of the Billy Goat. (www.deadspin.com)

The Chicago Cubs were overcoming the Curse of the Billy Goat. (www.deadspin.com)

American League Divisional Series

Toronto Blue Jays 3 games, Texas Rangers 2 games

The Texas Rangers jumped out to a two game lead, putting the Toronto Blue Jays on the brink of elimination.  The Blue Jays, the presumptive favorite heading into the series, would not go quietly.  Forcing a decisive Game 5 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, the Blue Jays held a slim 3-2 lead heading into the 7th inning.  In a bizarre moment, Rougned Odor scampered home to score the tying run after Russell Martin’s return throw to Blue Jays’ pitcher Aaron Sanchez hit the bat of Rangers’ outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, while Choo was still in the box.  The Blue Jays responded in the bottom half of the 7th inning with a four run outburst, which included the now infamous Jose Bautista home run bat flip.  This completed the comeback and Toronto was on to the ALCS.

Kansas City Royals 3 games, Houston Astros 2 games

The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros went back and forth in the first four games of their ALDS.  Neither team able to break the other team down and truly dominate a game.  All this changed in Game 5, when the Royals’ experience and the Astros inexperience showed through.  The Royals’ hitters finally broke down Houston’s pitching and were able to turn around a 2-0 deficit in the 2nd inning and turn it into a 7-2 victory.  Simply put, the Royals used some of the knowledge and nerves from their 2014 World Series run to finally put away those pesky, overachieving Astros.

Jose Bautista and the bat flip that put the Blue Jays in the ALCS. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Jose Bautista and the bat flip that put the Blue Jays in the ALCS. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

National League Championship Series

New York Mets 4 games, Chicago Cubs 0 games

The Chicago Cubs did not lose the NLCS as much as the New York Mets won it.  The Cubs never lead throughout the four game sweep.  Daniel Murphy and the trio of Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom were magical, even when they did not have their best stuff.  Jeurys Familia and Bartolo Colon were there to pick up the slack when the young arms needed a little help reaching the finish line.  The Cubs simply lost to a better team, no Curse needed.

Daniel Murphy lead the Mets to a sweep of the Cubs one home run at a time. (www.fosports.com)

Daniel Murphy led the Mets to a sweep of the Cubs one home run at a time. (www.fosports.com)

American League Championship Series

Kansas City Royals 4 games, Toronto Blue Jays 2 games

Games 1 and 2 showed the Royals were the better team.  However, the Game 3 slugfest proved that the Blue Jays were not going to go down easy.  Kansas City had batting practice in Game 4, winning 14-2 in Toronto.  Toronto forced Game 6 with a 7-1 victory in Game 5.  Back in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium, the Blue Jays and Royals proved they were an even match.  The margin of victory was Lorenzo Cain’s speed and Wade Davis’ tenacity.  Cain scored from first on a single by Eric Hosmer in the bottom of the 8th inning, in part due to Jose Bautista not throwing to his cutoff man.  The Royals took the lead and called on Wade Davis for a little more.  Davis got two outs on eight pitches to end the Blue Jays’ 8th inning, waited through a 45 minute rain delay, then pitched the inning of his life.  Davis got the final out with a fast runner on second and third by getting Josh Donaldson to ground out to third.

Lorenzo Cain's dash around the bases was critical in the Royals returning to the World Series. (www.cbssports.com)

Lorenzo Cain’s dash around the bases was critical in the Royals returning to the World Series. (www.cbssports.com)

World Series

New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals

The 2015 World Series has the New York Mets playing against the Kansas City Royals.  The National League champion New York Mets won the National League East division by 7 games, with a record of 90-72.  Once in the playoffs, the Mets beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS and the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS.  The American League champion Kansas City Royals won the American League Central division by 12 games, with a record of 95-67.  The Royals beat the Houston Astros in the ALDS and the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS.

World Series Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

Before the beginning of every season The Winning Run predicts how each team will finish, which teams will make the playoffs, and who will win the World Series.  Each year we are horribly wrong about almost everything.  It is with this understanding that we give our predictions about the World Series between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets.

*A note about our predictions for MVP, we did not allow Daniel Murphy to be selected because everyone would pick him.  Therefore, we each have our secondary MVP prediction listed and collectively we have predicted Daniel Murphy for MVP.

The Winning Run’s official 2015 World Series predictions:

John:

Champion: Mets in 6 games.

MVP: Jacob deGrom

Jesse:

Champion: Mets in 5 games.

MVP: Lucas Duda (actually Daniel Murphy in disguise)

The Mets have a proud history of disguising themselves as other people. Just as Bobby Valentine. (www.usatoday.com)

The Mets have a proud history of disguising themselves as other people. Just as Bobby Valentine. (www.usatoday.com)

Bernie:

Champion: Royals in 6 games

MVP: Alcides Escobar

Derek:

Champion: Royals in 7 games.

MVP: Eric Hosmer

The San Francisco Giants won the World Series in Kansas City last year. Who will win this year? (www.popsugar.com)

The San Francisco Giants won the World Series in Kansas City last year. Who will win this year? (www.popsugar.com)

Collectively, beyond Daniel Murphy for World Series MVP, we do not agree on much.  We are split on which team will win.  We believe the series will go six games.  We predict that a baseball player for either the Mets or the Royals will win the MVP (this is the only prediction we feel we definitely got right).  Our predictions are most likely wrong, as is our tradition, but we might get lucky this time.  The 2014 World Series was fantastic, and the Royals are back for another try with a fairly young but experienced team.  The Mets are playing beyond their years with a playoff pitching staff that has not been seen since the Atlanta Braves in the 1990’s.   Regardless, whether we are right or wrong, we hope the 2015 World Series will be just as exciting as the 2014 edition of the Fall Classic.

DJ