Tagged: Jose Fernandez

Predictions That Did Go Wrong 3.0

Before predicting what will happen during the 2017 Major League season, let’s take a look back at The Winning Run’s predictions for the 2016 season. Once again we did a terrible job of guessing the final standings and playoffs. We are terrible at predictions, but we are consistent at our terribleness. So without further ado, a look back at our sad attempt at predicting the 2016 Major League season.

National League East

Prediction Reality
1 New York Mets Washington Nationals
2 Washington Nationals New York Mets
3 Miami Marlins Miami Marlins
4 Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies
5 Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
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The death of Jose Fernandez was a shocking reminder that baseball is just a game. (Rob Foldy/Getty Images)

National League Central

Prediction Reality
1 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs
2 Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals
3 St. Louis Cardinals Pittsburgh Pirates
4 Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
5 Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds

 

National League West

Prediction Reality
1 Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
2 San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
3 Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
4 San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres

 

American League East

Prediction Reality
1 Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox
2 New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles
3 Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays
4 Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees
5 Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays

 

American League Central

Prediction Reality
1 Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
2 Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers
3 Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals
4 Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox
5 Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins
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In 2016, not every team could take a punch from the competition. (AP Photo/CSM/Albert Pena)

American League West

Prediction Reality
1 Houston Astros Texas Rangers
2 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Seattle Mariners
3 Texas Rangers Houston Astros
4 Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5 Oakland Athletics Oakland Athletics

 

Playoffs

Wild Card

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants New York Mets
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Francisco Lindor and the Indians came so close to a World Series Championship, but Cleveland will have to wait at least one more season. (Jason Miller/ Getty Images)

Divisional Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians Boston Red Sox

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates Chicago Cubs San Francisco Giants
New York Mets Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals

 

Championship Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros Cleveland Indians Toronto Blue Jays

 

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Chicago Cubs New York Mets Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers

 

World Series

Games Won Prediction Games Won Actual
4 Games Houston Astros 4 Games Chicago Cubs
2 Games Chicago Cubs 3 Games Cleveland Indians

We did not get much right, but we did correctly predict six teams in their final standings, five playoff teams, and two Divisional Series Winners, and the National League Championship winner. Our predictions were not as accurate as in the 2015 final standings, but we found greater success in the playoffs. The playoffs are where it really matters, right?

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The Cubs are World Series Champions. (Ezra Shaw/ Getty Images)

Predicting the final standings for the regular season is not an easy task. Our predictions in 2015 (11 of 30 correct) were much higher than our average, so it came as no surprise that in 2016 our predictions fell back to earth. We were correct that the Miami Marlins would finish third in the National League East, ahead of the rebuilding Braves and Phillies but well behind the Nationals and Mets. The Cubs were the easy pick to win the National League Central, far outpacing the rest of the division.The National League West was a two team race from the beginning, but we were correct that the Dodgers would out last the Giants over the course of the season. Finally we were correct in predicting the American League East would leave the Rays behind and the American League West would leave the Athletics behind as both teams finished last in their division.

Our predictions in the playoffs were much better in 2016. There are ten playoff spots, we selected half the teams before the season began. The Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants all made the playoffs, but despite having half the teams in the playoffs correct, we did not do a great job of predicting what they would do once they made it to October. We were correct in predicting the Toronto Blue Jays would win the American League Divisional Series. We correctly predicted the Chicago Cubs would win the National League pennant, although we felt they were not yet ready to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Opps.

The 2016 Major League season was not what we predicted it would be; it was better. No matter how careful we are in making our predictions, we will be wrong more often than we are right; such is baseball. Every season has its memories, for the Cubs it was finally winning the World Series after waiting more than a century. The Reds, Braves, Twins, Athletics, and other continued to rebuild. Every team is trying to get better, but not matter what baseball is unpredictable. We hope we are better at predicting the 2017 season than we were the 2016 season. However, there are only three guarantees that we can make: 1) baseball is unpredictable, 2) our predictions will turn out to be horribly wrong, 3) baseball makes everything better.

DJ, JJ, JB, and BL

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Numbing Pain

Jose Fernandez’s tragic death has left much of the baseball and Cuban community feeling numb. How else do you describe the feeling when a young man loses his life? It does not matter if you loved the flair and passion he played with, you could not question Fernandez’s heart. His love for life and the game of baseball was on full display any time you saw Fernandez. He wanted to win and have a good time doing it. This led to some confrontations after watching his homeruns or being thrown at. You might not like his style of play, personally I loved it, but I doubt many people would not want him on their team.

fireworks

Just because you play in the Majors doesn’t mean you can’t watch the fireworks like you still play little league. (Fish@Bat)

The measure of a baseball player’s greatness often resides in the numbers. Four numbers are all you need to know about Jose Fernandez.

24 Jose Fernandez’s age at the time of his tragic death. No parent or grandparent should ever have to bury a child. It is an unspeakable pain that has no equal.

4 The number of times Jose Fernandez attempted to defect from Cuba to the United States. America is far from perfect; we as a nation have many flaws that need addressing. Despite our collective shortcomings, people from all over the world risks their lives to come here for the chance at a better life. Not every one of them has the athletic talent of Jose Fernandez, but they are willing to risk their lives to find freedom and opportunity. The boats that many Cubans have used in their attempts to escape Castro Cuba have not always been seaworthy. Thousands of Cubans have drowned attempting to make it to south Florida and Mexico. Jose Fernandez was one of the lucky ones to have survived the dangers four times. The bravery required in a single attempt to defect via boat is greater than many people require in a lifetime. Fernandez’s fourth, and successful, attempt to defect occurred when he was just 15 years old. What was your greatest challenge at 15? Not many people can say escaping from oppression by boat.

3 The number of times Jose Fernandez was unsuccessful in making it to America. Each failure and return to Cuba meant a prison sentence and greater government scrutiny upon release for himself and his family and close friends. How many of us are willing to continue trying to achieve a goal if we have failed three times, even if the risks of injury or a long prison sentence are not high? Now amplify that to include the very real possibility of dying. I doubt there would be many willing to try.

1 Jose Fernandez was going to be a Dad. His child and girlfriend will miss him every day.

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Jose Fernandez loved baseball and life, and it was easy to see. (Steve Mitchell)

While what Jose Fernandez did on the baseball field was not unimportant, it does not compare to what he did and was off. Much the way the death of Oscar Taveras was shocking and sad, the sudden death of Jose Fernandez is a somber reminder that baseball is just a game. We have lost a great pitcher, but the Fernandez family has lost a son, grandson, and a soon to be Dad. This is the real tragedy.

Rest in Peace Jose. Thank you for sharing your love for life and baseball with us. You will be missed.

DJ

A New Day in Havana?

The Tampa Bay Rays and a host of dignitaries from Major League Baseball were part of the thawing of tensions between the United States and Cuba on Tuesday. President Obama became the first American President to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge when he visited the island in an attempt to build relations between to two nations. Baseball provides some distraction from the real events taking place. The embargo on Cuba is receding and for the first time under either Fidel or Raul Castro’s rule, Cuba is slowly opening itself to the United States and the rest of the world. Sports, especially baseball, have played an integral part in the process and the game between the Rays and the Cuban National team was as much ceremonial as it was competition.

Cuban National Stadium
It was a packed house in Cuba to watch the Cuban National Team face the Tampa Bay Rays. (Yamil Lage/ AFP/ Getty Images)

Sports can act as a bridge when traditional diplomacy runs into a wall. The past is littered with examples of how sports have overcome seemingly impassable obstacles in domestic and international relations. The thawing of the relationship between the United States and Cuba is just the latest chapter. The embargo on Cuba has meant increased isolation for Cubans, who were left to live their lives under a repressive regime that concerns itself with control over everything else. This repression has led thousands of Cubans, if not more, to risk their lives to leave the island through any means possible. As Dan Le Batard, the son of Cuban exiles, of the Miami Herald wrote,

“The ocean between our countries is filled with the Cuban bodies that tell the story, lives literally thrown to the wind in desperation, hoping to reach America’s possibility-soaked shores on boats made of old tires and wood and poverty’s debris.”

The pain and anger for Cubans, both in and out of Cuba, is real. Families have been indefinitely separated through no fault of their own. Countless lives have been lost when boats and rafts, ill suited for crossing the Straits of Florida, sink or capsize. Their human cargo like flotsam in the water floating miles away from land. Cubans have gone to desperate lengths to escape their homeland. Le Batard makes it crystal clear that the pain Cubans who have made it out is not self inflicted. They are not immigrants, rather they are exiles. The difference between willingly leaving your home and being forced to leave. Cubans want to reunite with their families, but the Castro regime continues to prevent this.

Hope remains, no matter how long it takes, that some day all Cubans can be reunited. The politics of Cuba and between Cuba and the United States begin at the foul lines during the Rays game. The game on the field is only a piece of the larger diplomatic puzzle. Normalizing relations between the two countries does not bring back the lives lost in the Straits of Florida, nor do they replace the years of separation between families. Yasiel Puig, Orlando and Livan Hernandez, and numerous other prospective baseball players endured harrowing trips in pursuit of freedom using human smugglers. Jose Abreu took a boat with other members of his family to the Dominican Republic. Aroldis Chapman defected while in the Netherlands for a baseball tournament. Every story of defection is about starting a new life, but it is also about the life the players leave behind.

Cuban Raft
Cubans have used everything they can to escape to freedom. (AP Photo/ Hans Deryk)

Several Cuban players were reunited with their families this week. Jose Abreu was reunited with his five year old son this week after a three year separation. Do you think that weighs on his mind more than striking out? Imagine having to leave your family when your child is two years old and not seeing them again until they are five. What about leaving on a boat in the middle of the night and not knowing if you will ever see your parents again? The dangers are real for Cubans fleeing oppression both for personal safety, but also losing part of who you are.

There is no easy, plausible solution to the the situation. Cuban exiles want the Castros out of power and the Castros want to remain in power. The oppression in Cuba is real. If it was not, it is doubtful that so many would risk their lives to find freedom. The American presidential campaign season has brought xenophobia to the dinner table. However, at our core, I believe, America remains the refuge for the oppressed. The Cuban Adjustment Act, or Wet Feet, Dry Feet Policy, remains in place only for Cubans. The Cuban embargo is a remnant of the Cold War, but the United States remains a safe haven for those who seek peace and justice. President Obama is using Major League Baseball in an attempt to invite Cuba to play nice in other political dealings.. Baseball is a tool that can be used given the passion for the sport in both nations. While this excursion in Havana may not bring down the Castro regime and create a free and open Cuba, at least the United States has changed its stance and is probing for an opening to help end the suffering of all Cubans.

Street baseball
How long will Cuban  baseball players have to risk it all to reach freedom to play the game they love? (Lisa Shires, Your Shot, National Geographic)

Cuba, its politics, and its love of baseball are alive and well in south Florida. The Miami Marlins may not set records with their attendance, the good ones at least, but there is a reason Marlins Park is situated in the middle of Little Havana. Ownership hopes to draw more fans, especially Cuban fans. The stadium rises high above the working class homes that surround it. The big apartment buildings, shops, and restaurants have not followed the team just yet. The neighborhood is still its own. Last September during a trip to Miami and the Florida Keys, my girlfriend and I dutifully stopped by just to see Marlins Park. The Marlins were out of town, so there was only so much we could see.

On the advice of one of the men working inside the team gift shop we went to lunch at Morro Castle. It is a non-descript building with bars on the windows of the dining room instead of glass. The open air cafe sits about a mile down the street from the stadium. Everything inside is in Spanish, but distinctly Cuban. Not reading or understanding Spanish, I ordered through pointing and hand gestures. The food was as amazing as you would hope. The authentic feel of being the visitor to not only Morro Castle, but also Little Havana, transported us the roughly 100 miles south to Cuba.

Morro Castle
Little Havana feels and tastes like Cuba, but the exiles living there know they are not home. (The Winning Run)

No matter how much the Little Havana neighborhood of Miami feels like Cuba, it is not Cuba. The neighborhood is full of exiles, not immigrants. People who want to go home, who want to be reunited with family and friends, people who want the Castro regime to live only in the history books. The politics of Cuba exists in Little Havana and throughout south Florida. Jose Fernandez is a fan favorite, he is a phenom on the mound, and a Cuban exile like so many in Little Havana. Fidel and Raul Castro, and their regime, are the devil incarnate for these Cuban exiles. Understandably, they do not have time or sympathy for anyone who disagrees with the experiences they have personally lived through. Ozzie Guillen’s tenure as the Marlins Manager was not destined to last long when in 2012 he spoke of his respect for Fidel Castro. Regardless of the point that Guillen, a Venezuelan, was trying to make, invoking Castro in a positive light meant he was a supporter in the eyes of the Cuban exiles. Guillen was suspended five games for his comments by the Marlins and was fired at the end of the 2012 season. A solid manager, but his comments on his respect for Fidel Castro has meant he has talked his way out of American baseball. No Major League team has been willing to hire him with this sort of baggage, among other reasons. The Cuban community, especially in south Florida, does not waver in its collective hatred for the Castros nor their desire for the regime to become a painful memory of the past.

Baseball may be the tool necessary to create better relations between the United States and Cuba. The dialogue between President Obama and Raul Castro could lead to a breakthrough decades in the making. Baseball diplomacy could also fail to change anything in Cuba, and simply provide a brief glimpse into life of the island. Only time will tell if the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban National Team helped to change policies designed to isolate the communist regime. Baseball, and all sports, allow political battles to be fought on the athletic field instead of the battlefield. The passion for baseball remains strong in both countries. The personal toll on the Cuban community both on the island and in exile continues to mount as more Cubans are dying trying to reach freedom and families continue to be separated from one another due to politics. Sports can work to unite people, let’s hope that baseball can start the path towards reunifying the Cuban people and ending the suffering of so many.

DJ

Welcome Back Jose

Jose Fernandez is back!  The Marlins starting pitcher is back 14 months after Tommy John surgery.  Major League Baseball has one of its most exciting stars back on the mound.  This is great news for baseball, the Marlins, and their fans.  This could be what prevents the Marlins from losing the interest of their fans while Giancarlo Stanton is recovering from wrist surgery.  Miami has taken several important steps towards being relevant this season, all of which could make them dangerous in 2016.

The primary mission of Jose Fernandez’s first start was to get the nerves out and to make it through healthy.  He accomplished both of these goals.  The first inning was a little wild for Fernandez, but not too wild.  It was easy to see he the adrenaline was pumping, and was overthrowing his pitches on several occasions.  The Giants scored two runs on the Marlins in the first inning, but Fernandez was able to compose himself before San Francisco could tag him for more.  Overall, his return was a success.  Jose Fernandez pitched 6 innings, allowed 7 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned runs, struck out 6, walked none, allowed 1 homerun, all on 89 pitches, 68 for strikes.  He also went 1 for 3 at the plate, hitting a homerun in his second at bat.  Overall, Fernandez and the Marlins should be ecstatic with how his return played out.

Jose Fernandez is back and the Marlins need him. (www.outsidepitchmlb.com)

Jose Fernandez is back and the Marlins need him. (www.outsidepitchmlb.com)

The timing of Jose Fernandez’s return works out nicely for the Marlins.  The looming All Star break means he will get two or three starts under him before the break, meaning the team could give him a little extra rest without having to skip him in the rotation.  The All Star Break could enable the Marlins to pitch Fernandez later in the season than he might otherwise could have.  Miami is not completely out of the race for the playoffs, but they have some major ground to make up if they want to play in October.  As August and September roll around the fan base could become uninterested in the team if they are out of the playoff race, but with Fernandez pitching every fifth day and Giancarlo Stanton hopefully returning to form post-surgery Marlins Park could attract more fans.  The issues between the Marlins and their fan base are well documented.  However, hopefully this is the beginning of a new era for baseball in south Florida.  Young stars like Fernandez, Stanton, Dee Gordon, and Christian Yelich have the potential to create and sustain interest and excitement about Marlins baseball.  South Florida is already fertile ground for developing baseball players, this could increase if the Marlins become and remain a relevant team.

Jose Fernandez is back.  His first start was a success, more so in that he came through it healthy and the buzz around the Marlins has returned.  Fernandez and Stanton have the ability to make baseball in Miami both successful and viable both now and into the future.  The 2015 Miami Marlins are just another building block for the success that appears on the horizon for the club.  The third time should be the charm for the Marlins, however it seems unlikely that Miami would give the team a fourth try to build a successful team if ownership completely guts the team of its stars as it has done in the past.  Welcome back Jose Fernandez!  You are the present and the future of the Marlins and Miami baseball, good luck.

D