Tagged: David Robertson

Predictions Sure To Go Wrong 2.0

Last season The Winning Run attempted to predict the outcome of the 2014 Major League Baseball season.  We were not highly successful in our first attempt.  Not to be deterred by our lack of success, we are back to try again.  Once again, let us apologize in advance for jinxing everyone’s favorite team, whether it is by dooming your team before it had a chance to do much better or by sending it spiraling down in flames as it does much worse than expected.  Either way in which we have ruined the chances of your team this season, we are sorry.

mlb_a_giantswinwar_668x376

The Giants are still recovering from winning the World Series last October. (www.espn.go.com)

Let us begin with the Senior Circuit.

National League

East  
1 Washington Nationals Division Winner/ 1st Seed
2 Miami Marlins
3 New York Mets
4 Atlanta Braves
5 Philadelphia Phillies

The National League East could be one of the weakest Divisions in all of baseball.  Beyond the Nationals, the rest of the division could struggle.  The Marlins and Mets could threaten for a Wild Card spot, but each have deficiencies that could prevent it from reaching the playoffs.  The Braves could surprise people if the bats and pitchers keep up with one another and hover around .500.  The Phillies will be the worst team in all of baseball.  A successful season would be to avoid 100 games, but even this could be out of reach in Philadelphia.

It will be a long season in Philadelphia, with or without Cole Hamels. (www.hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)

It will be a long season in Philadelphia, with or without Cole Hamels. (www.hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)

Central
1 St. Louis Cardinals Division Winner/ 3rd Seed
2 Pittsburgh Pirates Wild Card
3 Chicago Cubs
4 Milwaukee Brewers
5 Cincinnati Reds

Every team in the National League Central could win the Division or finish last.  The Cardinals should continue to be the class of the Central, as they have the pitching and the bats to match up against any team in baseball.  The Pirates could pace with the Cardinals all season, but they may fall a few games short of the division based upon a few miscues throughout the season.  The Cubs are dramatically improved, but playing in the Central will keep them out of the playoffs in addition to their young stars not all fully rising to their potential this season.  The Brewers are dependent upon their lineup supplying the offense that the pitchers need, but there are too many chances for the bats to go quiet throughout the season.  The Reds are recovering from losing several keys pitchers from last season.  The Reds could rise out of the cellar, but only if Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips all have productive and healthy seasons.

West
1 Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner/ 2nd Seed
2 San Francisco Giants Wild Card
3 San Diego Padres
4 Colorado Rockies
5 Arizona Diamondbacks
Wil Myers and the new look Padres are not going quietly. (www.sports.yahoo.com)

Wil Myers and the new look Padres are not going quietly. (www.sports.yahoo.com)

The Dodgers are the clear class of the National League West; they have the arms and bats to compete with any team in baseball.  Ultimately, the Dodgers will chase the Nationals for the best record in the National League.  The Giants will recover from their October success last season, breaking the cycle of boom and bust that they have experienced the last four seasons.  They will make the playoffs as a Wild Card, but they will not win another World Series this season.  The Padres like the Marlins and Cubs are greatly improved, but will not be able to put it together this season to reach the playoffs in the first season of their new reality.  The Rockies will continue to be successful offensively, but their pitching staff is not ready to take the team to the next level and compete for a playoff spot.  The Diamondbacks are in full rebuild, and will be searching for answers in every phase of the game.  The trade of Trevor Cahill was the clearest sign of Arizona looking to the future beyond the 2015 season.

Now let us examine the Junior Circuit.

American League

East
1 Toronto Blue Jays Division Winner/ 3rd Seed
2 Baltimore Orioles
3 Boston Red Sox
4 New York Yankees
5 Tampa Bay Rays
2015 could be painful in the Bronx. (www.nydailynews.com)

2015 could be painful in the Bronx. (www.nydailynews.com)

The Blue Jays finally have all the players they need to win the American League East.  Even with the loss of Marcus Stroman for the season, Toronto has the arms and bats to win the Division.  The Orioles will return with another strong team.  If Chris Davis or Manny Machado can return to half of their 2013 form Baltimore will stay in the hunt for the playoffs into the final days of the season, but could ultimately fall short.  The Red Sox are better than last season, but their pitching leaves too many questions for the bats to make up.  Boston should finish above .500, but they will not play in October.  The Yankees are a mixture of old talent and youthful ignorance.  New York may face more injury worries as the season progresses, which could derail any dreams of reaching the playoffs, or even .500.  The Rays are in full rebuild mode.  Tampa has to rediscover the magic of over performing if it hopes to avoid finishing last in the East.

Central
1 Detroit Tigers Division Winner/ 1st Seed
2 Cleveland Indians Wild Card
3 Kansas City Royals
4 Chicago White Sox
5 Minnesota Twins
Nick Swisher and the Indians will have a reason to smile this year. (www.en.wikipedia.org)

Nick Swisher and the Indians will have a reason to smile this year. (www.en.wikipedia.org)

The American League Central could be the best Division in all of baseball.  The Tigers should be the class of the Division so long as David Price, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez are able to stay healthy.  The Indians will finally get over the hump and make the playoffs as a Wild Card.  Corey Kluber needs another good season, not necessarily another Cy Young season, and young stars like Michael Brantley need to emerge to power Cleveland back to October.  The Royals are still recovering from their World Series hangover.  While they will be competitive until late in the season, they will not make a return trip to the playoffs, as the loss of James Shields and Billy Butler will be the difference this season.  The White Sox should be much improved but in the Central, it could be difficult to crack the top three in the division even with the addition of Jeff Samardzija to the rotation and David Robertson to the bullpen.  The Twins need their bats and arms to light up the box score this season.  The continued worry about the health of Joe Mauer and the suspension of Ervin Santana could prevent Minnesota from reaching .500.

West
1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Division Winner (won 1 game playoff)/ 2nd Seed
2 Oakland Athletics Wild Card (lost 1 game playoff)
3 Seattle Mariners
4 Houston Astros
5 Texas Rangers

The American League West has three potential Division winners.  The Angels once again have a tremendous offense led by the best player in the game, Mike Trout, a star looking to rediscover his old form, Albert Pujols, and a declining star, Josh Hamilton.  If the Angels pitchers can stay healthy, they could win the Division.  The Athletics will once again work their magic and surprise everyone to finish the season tied with the Angels.  Another star will emerge in Oakland, a player who another club gave up on and let go.  The Athletics and Angels will have to play a one game playoff to determine who wins the Division and who is the Wild Card.  Ultimately, the Angels will win the Division and send Oakland to the Wild Card.  The Mariners will unfortunately fall just short once again and miss the playoffs.  They need a bit more offense in Seattle if they are to reach to playoffs, but that will have to wait until 2016.  The Astros are once again going to take a huge step forward.  Houston should finish .500 or better thanks to the continued development of its young stars in Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Collin McHugh.  The Rangers should be able to avoid the injury plague they suffered from last season; however, they still lack the pitching to compete, especially after losing Yu Darvish for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

The laughable Astros are only a memory now. (www.diehardsport.com)

The laughable Astros are only a memory now. (www.diehardsport.com)

Playoffs

October will once again give us some great moments to remember, beginning with the Wild Card games.

Wild Card

American League National League
Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Indians San Francisco Giants

In the American League Wild Card game, the Athletics will have spent too much energy getting to the Wild Card game to overcome the Indians.  Cleveland will continue on their excellent season into the Divisional Series.  In the National League Wild Card game, the Pirates will finally give Pittsburgh the full playoff series it has been waiting for since 1992.  The Giants will finally run out of gas after back-to-back seasons of hard-fought competition to reach October.

Divisional Series

American League
ALDS
Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians
ALDS
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Detroit Tigers
National League
NLDS
St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers
NLDS
Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates
Albert Pujols and the Angels will come up short again. (www.monkeywithahalo.com)

Albert Pujols and the Angels will come up short again. (www.monkeywithahalo.com)

In the American League Division Series, the Blue Jays will run through the Indians after Cleveland runs out of gas fighting through the Wild Card.  Pitching should be fairly even, but offensively Toronto should have an advantage with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.  The Angels will once again come up short due to a lack of pitching to match up against the rotation of the Tigers.  Detroit has the best hitters in baseball in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, who can make up for any problems the pitching staff encounters.  In the National League Division Series, the Cardinals will fall to the arms of the Dodgers, as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke finally translate their dominance to October.  The Nationals will continue their dominance as they fight past the Pirates.  While the series could be tight, Washington has the pitching staff to quiet the bats of Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison, and the rest of the Pirates.

Championship Series

American League
Toronto Blue Jays Detroit Tigers
National League
Washington Nationals Los Angeles Dodgers

The Championship Series will pair off great offenses in the American League as the power bats of the Blue Jays match up against the all-around hitting ability of the Tigers.  The experience and rotation will be the difference for Detroit, even if Justin Verlander and David Price are not in vintage form.  In the National League, the Championship Series will see the matchup of two great pitching staffs.  Los Angeles will send Kershaw and Greinke to the mound to face off against Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg.  The Nationals will stop the Dodgers as Washington has a deeper roster and the ability to recover if any of its starters faulted.

World Series

The 2015 World Series will pit the Washington Nationals against the Detroit Tigers.  Both have excellent pitching staffs and line-ups.  Detroit has the better lineup, while Washington has the better pitching staff.  The biggest advantage exists in the lineup for the Tigers, which will propel Detroit to another World Series victory in six games.

Detroit Tigers 4 games
Washington Nationals 2 games
The Detroit Tigers will be celebrating again in October. (www.blog.detroitathletic.com)

The Detroit Tigers will be celebrating again in October. (www.blog.detroitathletic.com)

These are our predictions for the 2015 Major League Baseball season.  Love it?  Hate it?  Time will tell if we are right or wrong.  We never claim to know what will happen, but this is what we are predicting to happen.  Now it is time to watch how bad our predictions turn out to be once they meet reality, while enjoying another great season of baseball.

D, J, and B

Mariano Rivera’s Shadow

The recent announcement of the new relief pitcher awards named after Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman will give more recognition to the bullpen and the vital role they play. It has also led me to further examine the career of the top two closers of all-time. Clearly Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time statistically, and Hoffman was no slouch with his 601 career saves. However, should the debate be so easily resolved as to anoint Rivera as the gold standard with Hoffman merely leading the charge behind him in the record books? I believe Hoffman should at least garner the same level of accolades as Rivera. These two pitchers defined the position, yet only one has properly been given his due.

Announcing he would retire after the 2013 season led the media to examine where Mariano Rivera’s career lies in baseball and New York Yankee history. Much of the media, especially in New York, felt it was a forgone conclusion that Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time. The question of whether he belongs on the Mount Rushmore of the Yankees history was also debated. It seems the popular opinion was he is close but with only four spots who do you take down between Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, or Mickey Mantle? Is he ahead of Yogi Berra? I would say no. He is also behind Derek Jeter as the face of the Yankees from this generation. His record 652 saves and 42 post season saves brought the respect and honors he deserved. However, for all the discussion about Rivera and his greatest there seems to be a sense that he stands alone at the top among closers. The media steadfastly insisted there is an enormous gap between him and the next greatest closer in baseball history. This is where I strongly disagree. I am not disputing Rivera’s greatness, what I am disputing is that he is that much greater than the guy right behind him, Trevor Hoffman.

Mariano Rivera throwing the cutter.

Mariano Rivera throwing the cutter.

Comparing the career numbers of these two great pitchers shows how close they are at face value. Mariano pitched 19 seasons in Major League Baseball, all with the New York Yankees. He collected 652 saves, with a 2.21 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 4.10 strikeout/walks. He had nine seasons with over 40 saves. Rivera was a starter for the Yankees in 1995. He was the setup man for John Wetteland and saved only 5 games in 1996. In 2012, he only saved 5 games before tearing his ACL in Kansas City early in the season.

Trevor Hoffman pitched for 18 seasons with the Florida Marlins, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers. He amassed 601 saves, with a 2.87 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, and 3.69 strikeout/walk. He had nine seasons with over 40 saves. Hoffman saved only five games in 1993 during his time with the Marlins and the Padres. He only pitched nine innings, recording no saves in 2003 after having major shoulder surgery.

Mariano Rivera*

Trevor Hoffman

19

Seasons

18

652

Saves

601

592

Games Finished

856

2.21

ERA

2.87

4.10

SO/BB

3.69

1.000

WHIP

1.058

0.594

Team Winning %

0.481

96

Avg Team W’s/ Year

78

The careers of Rivera and Hoffman have been similar; both had tremendous seasons, both had a season where they were not the primary closer, and both lost a season due to injury. Statistically Rivera has a slight advantage in most categories. It can be, and probably should be, argued that individually Rivera is the better pitcher, but it never hurts to have a better team behind you. During Rivera’s career with the Yankees, the team has a .594 winning percentage, an average of 96 wins per season. Hoffman spent a part of a season with the expansion Marlins, 15 and a half seasons with the Padres, and two seasons with the Brewers. These teams had a combined .481 winning percentage, an average of 76 wins per season. Hoffman had roughly 20 fewer opportunities to record a save every season.

Trevor Hoffman throwing a circle change.

Trevor Hoffman throwing a circle change.

Baseball can sometimes hide some of the great players because of the teams they play on. Trevor Hoffman should be in the same conversation as Mariano Rivera for greatest closer in baseball history. Unfortunately, Hoffman played for worse teams and in smaller markets where the media spotlight is not as bright. New York City is the media capital of the United States, arguably the world. San Diego on the other hand is more laid back. New Yorkers and their media are concerned with being the best and expect nothing less. If they do not win the World Series, the entire season was a failure. San Diego seeks to build on their previous season and work towards the playoffs and making a deep run. They can have successful seasons without winning a World Series. Rivera and Hoffman in some ways reflect the cities and the teams they played for. Rivera was dominant and continually marching towards winning a championship. However, he was also quiet and the last person to tout his own accomplishments, unlike his city and the Yankee fans. Hoffman went about his business in a no nonsense manner and sought to intimidate the opposing team. While San Diego is not the in your face town that New York is, the city and Hoffman are comfortable with doing their job and enjoying life without all the media attention. Rivera and Hoffman were reflections of both what their cities and teams were and what they were not.

The Padres will never draw the same level of attention as the Yankees, and because of this Trevor Hoffman was not as visible or as popular as Mariano Rivera across the baseball landscape. The Yankees and their players are known across the country, the Padres are known locally and to die-hard baseball people. Ultimately I would give a slight advantage to Rivera over Hoffman, primarily due to his mastery of a single pitch, the cutter. However, when you look at the numbers and the teams they pitched for these two great closers are closer to one another than many people are willing to admit.

Enter Sandman

Enter Sandman

Rivera benefited from playing for the Yankees for his entire career, especially during one of the great eras of the franchise. During his 19 year career, the Yankees never had a losing record; the worst season being in 1995 with the Yankees going 79-65 in the shortened season due to the 1994 strike. Hoffman on the other hand routinely played for teams which were fighting through losing seasons. He was a member of six teams with winning records; only two of these teams won more than 90 games. Closers are among the most dependent players on a baseball team, as their jobs are almost exclusively to finish games in which their team in winning. This shows the brilliance of Hoffman as he was able to reach 601 career saves with a less than ideal situation.

The 51 saves which separate Rivera from Hoffman could be bridged with a single elite 19th season by Trevor Hoffman. However with both pitchers being retired, the only way to bridge the gap between would be to examine the realities of their careers. Rivera, through his being on the perennial winner with the Yankees, was able to gain the potential for an additional 20 wins per season. While I recognize the 20 additional wins by Rivera and the Yankees over Hoffman and predominantly the Padres will not result in 20 additional save opportunities. Rivera saved 36% of the Yankees’ victories during his career and Hoffman saved 44% of his teams’ victories during his career. Suggesting Hoffman conservatively would have saved 30% of the additional 20 victories each year could have meant an extra six saves a season for an extra 108 saves for Hoffman during his 18 season career, bringing his career saves total to 709. If you take away the additional 20 wins from the Yankees every season, using the same 30% of games saved or six fewer games saved, Mariano Rivera would have ended his career with 544 saves. This would put him 57 saves behind Hoffman’s 601 career saves.

Hoffman coming straight at you.

Hell’s Bells coming straight at you.

There is no denying Mariano Rivera’s greatness. He threw one pitch, the cutter. Every pitch he knew what he would throw, so did the catcher, the batter, and everyone else in the stadium. His ability to continuously finish games speaks to the remarkable ability he possessed with a baseball. Trevor Hoffman did not possess the same skills with a single pitch in the way Rivera did. He came up with the Marlins throwing a ferocious fastball, but had to develop a change-up once he lost velocity on his fastball due to a shoulder injury. Rivera was blessed with the cutter, Hoffman had to reinvent himself and grind out saves throughout his career.

Replacing Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera is no small task. Heath Bell replaced Hoffman in San Diego in 2009. he began the season with 2 career saves. Bell successfully saved 42 games in 2009 and 132 over the next three years before he signed a three year deal with the Miami Marlins as a free agent prior to the 2012 season. David Robertson came into the 2014 season with 8 career saves. Only time will tell if he is a worthy successor to Mariano Rivera. The two greatest closers in Major League history combined for 1,253 career saves, or nearly eight full seasons. Both should be clear cut Hall of Famers, as they are the best at what they did and they were able to maintain their success over 19 seasons for Rivera and 18 seasons for Hoffman. While the media focused on Mariano Rivera last season and his farewell tour around baseball, the sustained brilliance of Hoffman without the constant media spotlight should not be lost. Rivera and Hoffman are in a class by themselves. The Yankees and Padres have played an important role in where there two great pitchers fall in baseball history. If Rivera were a Padre and Hoffman a Yankee the roles could easily be reversed, with Hoffman holding the record for most career saves and Rivera following close behind. Regardless of the order, both men were great to watch and brought out the best for themselves, their teams, and for baseball.

D