Predictions That Did Go Wrong 2.0

We offered our predictions for the 2015 season, and once again missed the target. While we did better than 2014, the 2015 season proved how unpredictable baseball is in the real world. While we try to give our best guesses as to what awaited us in the 2015 season, our predictions were, at their best, only educated guesses. Before we look ahead to the 2016 season, we need to look back at what we got right and what we got wrong in 2015.

Here are our predictions for the 2015 season against what actually happened:

National League East

Prediction

Reality

1 Washington Nationals New York Mets
2 Miami Marlins Washington Nationals
3 New York Mets Miami Marlins
4 Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
5 Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

Harper Papelpon
The confrontation between Jonathon Papelbon and Bryce Harper sums up the Nationals Season. (www.kansascity.com)

National League Central

Prediction Reality
1 St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
2 Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates
3 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs
4 Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers
5 Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds

National League West

Prediction Reality
1 Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
2 San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
3 San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks
4 Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres
5 Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
Jose Bautista Bat Flip
Jose Bautista and the Blue Jays played witha level of confidence that some saw as cockiness. (Tom Szczerbowski/ Getty Images)

American League East

Prediction Reality
1 Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays
2 Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees
3 Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles
4 New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays
5 Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox

American League Central

Prediction Reality
1 Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals
2 Cleveland Indians Minnesota Twins
3 Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
4 Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox
5 Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera
2015 was not a fun season for the Tigers. (Gregory Shamus/ Getty Images)

American League West

Prediction Reality
1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Texas Rangers
2 Oakland Athletics Houston Astros
3 Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4 Houston Astros Seattle Mariners
5 Texas Rangers Oakland Athletics

Playoffs

Wild Card

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Cleveland Indians Oakland Athletics Houston Astros New York Yankees

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates
Jake Arrietta.jpg
The Pirates ran into a buzzsaw named Jake Arrieta in the NL Wild Card. (Stephen Dunn/ Getty Images)

Divisional Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Kansas City Royals Houston Astros

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Los Angeles Dodgers St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates New York Mets Los Angeles Dodgers

Championships Series

American League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Detroit Tigers Toronto Blue Jays Kansas City Royals Toronto Blue Jays
Daniel Murphy.jpg
Daniel Murphy was a one man wreck crew against the Dodgers. (www.sports.yahoo.com)

National League

Predicted Winner Predicted Loser Actual Winner Actual Loser
Washington Nationals Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Chicago Cubs

World Series

Games Won Prediction Games Won Actual
4 games Detroit Tigers 4 games Kansas City Royals
2 games Washington Nationals 1 game New York Mets

We did much better with our predictions in 2015. We correctly predicted 11 out of 30 (36.67%) teams in their final divisional standings. We more than doubled our correct predictions from 2014, when we got only five correct. Amazingly, we were perfect in the National League Central. We had the Pirates correct in making the National League Wild Card game, but Pittsburgh was not able to live up to our predictions and advance. We were correct in predicting the Toronto Blue Jays would advance to the American League Championship Series. We were also correct in predicting the Cardinals and Dodgers would make it to the National League Divisional Series. Neither St. Louis nor Los Angeles advanced to the National League Championship Series, so we will take credit for being correct in our prediction that the Cardinals lost in the Divisional round. The Blue Jays were our team of destiny in the playoffs, as they bowed out exactly when we predicted. Most impressively, The Winning Run correctly predicted the World Series champion would win the championship with four victories. Ok, so maybe not impressive, but technically we were right.

Royals Win.jpg
It is good to be the Champion. (Peter G. Aiken- USA Today)

Injuries, teams aging too quickly, teams rebuilding more quickly than expected, and a host of other issues meant our predictions were not perfect. The Royals’ and Mets’ run to the World Series were exciting to watch as the next generation of young stars in baseball announced their presence. The Blue Jays and Jose Bautista’s bat flip allowed emotions to show through the tension that exists throughout the playoffs. The Yankees ran out of gas and it showed down the stretch and resulted with their loss in the AL Wild Card game. Houston’s rebuilding plan bore some immature fruit as the young Astros were a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. The Cubs have restored hope to the long-suffering fans from the Northside of Chicago that their year may soon come. The Nationals proved talent alone cannot win a division, much less a championship. A team must have more than just talent if it expects to play meaningful games in October. The Dodgers ran into a Mets team on a mission and bad timing. No one can predict everything in baseball, and teams can try to assemble a World Series winning team, but only one team is able to do so each season.

Our predictions for the 2015 season were better than before, but there remains plenty of room for improvement. As in baseball, we failed more often than we were successful. This was our second attempt at predicting the future season of baseball. Clearly, we learned something from the first year, but we still have plenty to learn. The 2015 season was an exciting year for baseball. Reality is often more exciting than anything we could have predicted. The 2016 season will be more of the same. We look forward to offering yet another round of predictions that are sure to go wrong.

DJ, JJ, JB, & BL

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