Predictions That Did Go Wrong

Last year before the season began we offered up our prediction of how the final standings for each division would look.  In addition to the final standings, we predicted the World Series.  Our first attempt at predicting the outcome of a Major League season was less than great.  We are hoping to improve upon our performance this coming season, but first let us look back.

Even Casey Stengel could not predict what would happen during a baseball season. (www.espn.go.com)

Even Casey Stengel could not predict what would happen during a baseball season. (www.espn.go.com)

These were our predictions against what actually happened during the 2014 season:

The American League East

Prediction Reality
1 Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles
2 Boston Red Sox (1st Wild Card) New York Yankees
3 New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays
4 Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays
5 Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox

The American League Central

  Prediction Reality
1 Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers
2 Cleveland Indians (2nd Wild Card) Kansas City Royals (1st Wild Card)
3 Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
4 Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox
5 Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins

The American League West

  Prediction Reality
1 Oakland Athletics Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Oakland Athletics (2nd Wild Card)
3 Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners
4 Seattle Mariners Houston Astros
5 Houston Astros Texas Rangers
Prince Fielder and the Rangers were never able to get on tack in 2014, in part due to injuries. (www.geeksandcleats.com)

Prince Fielder and the Rangers were never able to get on tack in 2014, in part due to injuries. (www.geeksandcleats.com)

The National League East

  Prediction Reality
1 Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals
2 Washington Nationals (1st Wild Card) New York Mets
3 New York Mets Atlanta Braves
4 Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins
5 Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies

The National League Central

  Prediction Reality
1 St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
2 Cincinnati Red Pittsburgh Pirates (1st Wild Card)
3 Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers
4 Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Red
5 Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs

The National League West

  Prediction Reality
1 Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
2 San Francisco Giants (2nd Wild Card) San Francisco Giants (2nd Wild Card)
3 Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres
4 Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies
5 San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks

World Series

Games Won Prediction Games Won Reality
4 Oakland Athletics 4 San Francisco Giants
2 St. Louis Cardinals 3 Kansas City Royals

So the 2014 season did not go as we predicted it might.  We were correct in the final standings 5 out of 30 times (16.66%).  It is never good when you are batting below the Mendoza line.  We correctly predicted 7 of the 10 playoff teams, including all five in the National League.  On the positive side both of our World Series picks did make the playoffs, but on the negative side neither made the World Series.

The Giants do not win the World Series without Madison Bumgarner.  (www.kansas.com)

The Giants do not win the World Series without Madison Bumgarner. (www.kansas.com)

Our predictions during the regular season were not the best.  Obviously we did not foresee some of the injuries that altered how teams performed, such as in Texas where you could pick among many injured Rangers.  We did well in predicting who would make the playoffs, but we were not great at predicting what would happen once those teams made it into the playoffs.  We predicted that a San Francisco Bay team and a Missouri team would play for the World Series, with the team by the bay winning.  However, in both cases we predicted the wrong team to reach the World Series.  We picked the Athletics winning instead of the Giants, and we picked the Cardinals losing instead of the Royals.  We were in the neighborhood with our World Series picks, so we have to give ourselves credit for something.

Our predictions for the 2014 season went horribly wrong, which was about the only thing we predicted with any certainty.  While we were wrong on so many predictions, the season was more fun and exciting than we could have predicted.  Our first try at predicting the outcome of the baseball season was not overly successful, but we will try to improve on our successes this season with our upcoming predictions for the 2015 season.  Stay tuned for another set of predictions which have little to no chance of coming true.

D

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2 comments

  1. Pingback: Predictions Sure To Go Wrong 2.0 « The Winning Run
  2. Pingback: How Did We Get Here and What Is About To Happen? « The Winning Run

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